Presidency: Beginning of the end<\/p>\n
By Kusnanto Anggoro<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): An overwhelming vote (393-4) supporting the
\ndispatch of a memorandum against President Abdurrahman Wahid, or
\nGus Dur, in the last plenary session of the House of
\nRepresentatives (DPR) is an omen. The end has already begun. Gus
\nDur has lost his moral authority as well as the legitimacy to
\nlead and govern.<\/p>\n
His party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), with barely
\nless than 50 seats in the legislature, is the only party
\ndetermined to support him.<\/p>\n
The mudslinging match between the President and the
\nlegislature is likely to continue in the weeks to come. The DPR
\nspecial committee's findings from their investigation into the
\nBuloggate and Bruneigate scandals have already been handed over
\nto the Attorney General and Police Chief.<\/p>\n
The scene is set for a bitter, protracted legal struggle
\nbetween the President and the DPR. The PKB continues to lodge
\nprotests over iniquitous procedure anomalies, flaws, lack of
\nethics and the possible abuse of democratic mechanisms in the
\nproceedings of the committee and the DPR as a whole.<\/p>\n
As a fallback, Gus Dur is seeking redemption by turning the
\nspotlight on opponents. Many DPR members are indeed allegedly
\ninvolved in significant corruption cases and\/or improper business
\npractices.<\/p>\n
Golkar officials are prominent in the firing line, with
\ninvestigations into their nefarious activities, including tax
\nevasion and the misuse of bank bail-out funds, being long-
\noverdue.<\/p>\n
The President is trying to divide mass politics, which may
\nlead more people to argue that the furors over the President were
\na conspiracy or smoke screen which Gus Dur's arch-enemies
\ninstigated in the hope of seizing back power.<\/p>\n
And the real battle is about to start. Many in the DPR seem
\ndetermined to flex their muscles, plotting once again and
\ngathering signatures for two petitions -- one asking Gus Dur to
\nresign and another demanding a fast-tracked special session of
\nthe People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) at which Gus Dur could
\nbe impeached.<\/p>\n
About half of the DPR members have already supported one or
\nthe other. Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri seems to be in
\noblivion, yet sticks to last week's decision by the DPR to
\ncensure the President rather than requesting a special session.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, a massive power struggle is underway. Gus Dur's
\nability to keep his job is uncertain. Kickbacks and backroom
\ndeals have long been part of the political landscape. He has
\nsurvived his presidency largely as a result of tit-for-tat
\nmaneuvering.<\/p>\n
But now the President is losing his chance. His bargaining
\npower may be ebbing away by the day as party leaders hostile to
\nGus Dur pressure their members in the cabinet to resign.<\/p>\n
The weeks ahead could be a patchwork of tensions. In rhetoric,
\nthe political elite, including Gus Dur, continue to call for calm
\namong their supporters. In reality, they have gone to his
\nconstituency to secure predictable statements of blanket support
\nand\/or keep sending useful warnings to his opponents that he is
\nready to fight.<\/p>\n
The potential of spreading conflict is imminent. Out on the
\nstreets Gus Dur still has plenty of support, particularly in his
\nparty's heartland in East Java.<\/p>\n
It remains unclear how Gus Dur will ride out the storm. He is
\na formidable political fighter who is dangerous and unpredictable
\nwhen his back is against the wall.<\/p>\n
For sure, he should not be so disillusioned as to emulate
\nRussian Boris Yeltsin or Peruvian Alberto Fujimori by exercising
\nsomewhat authoritarian measures. Gus Dur can no longer count on
\nthe military to back him in his tussle. Mobilizing popular
\nsupport and violence would of course erode his credentials as a
\ndemocrat.<\/p>\n
Long term democracy may depend less on critical moments of
\ndecision than on the painstaking construction and care of
\ndemocratic political institutions, practices and culture. In the
\nshort term however, such logic should read the other way around.<\/p>\n
We have now arrived at such a critical moment. More
\nimportantly, this is not about who will assume the presidency.
\nNor is it all about whether Gus Dur should or should not resign.<\/p>\n
This time may be the beginning of the end for Gus Dur.
\nNonetheless, this is not the end of beginnings for anyone. Even a
\nPresident Megawati would be extremely vulnerable to anti-Mega
\nsentiments, paradoxically the primary driving force of Gus Dur's
\nascendancy 15 months ago.<\/p>\n
Any overthrow of Gus Dur now could be turned against her in
\nthe future. The presidential system in a parliamentarian
\natmosphere strongly flavored with a \"ganging-up mentality\" is as
\nmuch an unpredictable as it is an unworkable system of
\ngovernment.<\/p>\n
What Indonesia needs is a new political contract among the
\npolitical elite, a sort of political moratorium between, at
\nleast, the executive and legislative branches of government,
\nduring which they must focus only on their primary jobs.<\/p>\n
If it is to take place, a special session of the MPR should
\nalso agree on this principle. Transitional Indonesia needs at
\nleast two full terms of stable presidency to arrive at a state of
\ndemocracy.<\/p>\n
Sadly, we do not know when these terms of presidency will even
\nstart.<\/p>\n
The writer is a senior researcher with the Centre for
\nStrategic and International Studies and a lecturer at the
\npostgraduate studies program at the University of Indonesia,
\nJakarta.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/presidency-beginning-of-the-end-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}