Preparations for another tsunami lacking<\/p>\n
Trevor Page, Jakarta<\/p>\n
We can't prevent natural phenomena like earthquakes or
\ntsunamis. But we can reduce their effects through early-warning
\nand disaster preparedness. Through better planning we can reduce
\nthe loss of life and the misery that always follows for the
\nsurvivors of natural disasters. This is what the Indonesian
\ngovernment and the United Nations system are now engaged with in
\nthe province of West Sumatra.<\/p>\n
Last Boxing Day, an estimated 131,000 people were killed by an
\nearthquake measuring 9 on the Richter scale and tsunami that
\ndevastated the coastline of the province of Aceh. Since then, at
\nleast half a million survivors have been living off assistance
\nfrom the international community.<\/p>\n
Last month, a leading Icelandic geophysicist, Freysteinn
\nSigmundsson, warned UN agency representatives in Indonesia that
\nthe alarming seismic events that have occurred regularly since
\nthe December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami were by no means
\nover. Recent seismic activity, it was thought, had piled
\ndangerous levels of stress onto a section of the Sunda Trench off
\nthe west coast of Sumatra. The magnitude 8.7 earthquake on March
\n28, 2005 that rocked the island of Nias in North Sumatra claimed
\nalmost 1,000 lives and left most of the concrete buildings and
\ninfrastructure in ruins. Earthquakes or aftershocks have occurred
\nalmost daily since then.<\/p>\n
Earlier this month a team of seismologists at the University
\nof Ulster in Northern Ireland, led by Prof. John McCloskey,
\nwarned of the danger of a major earthquake and tsunami off the
\ncoast of West Sumatra. This same group of scientists predicted
\nthe Nias earthquake almost two weeks before it occurred.<\/p>\n
UN and Indonesian scientists are worried that a great undersea
\nearthquake and tsunami could occur off the coast of West Sumatra
\nat any time. Disaster preparedness plans have been developed for
\nPadang, the provincial capital, and the major towns. But these
\nare incomplete and as one travels along the coast to the
\nextremities of the province, the degree of preparedness drops off
\ndramatically.<\/p>\n
The public fears that their lives and property are at risk and
\neach time the earth trembles there is confusion and panic.
\nWorried about a tsunami, people in many areas have taken to
\nspending the night in tents or makeshift shelters on higher
\nground.<\/p>\n
Padang has a population of some 900,000 people. Its mayor,
\nFauzi Bahar, who is responsible for disaster preparedness for the
\nprovince, estimates that 600,000 of Padang's population are at
\nrisk. Evacuation areas in the hills surrounding the city have
\nbeen identified and sites suitable for camps have been selected.
\nBut land leveling and site preparation has not been done. Nor
\nhave evacuation routes been cut through the densely- forested
\nhillsides. Thirty-one buildings, including the university, have
\nbeen identified as being earthquake-safe and tall enough for
\npeople to take refuge in the event of a tsunami. But it is
\nestimated that these buildings can only accommodate 30,000
\npeople.<\/p>\n
Earthquake and tsunami evacuation drills have been instituted
\nat some schools in Padang. As soon as an earthquake alarm is
\nsounded children get under their desks to shield themselves from
\nfalling masonry. At another signal, the children run out of their
\nclassroom to open ground holding their schoolbooks or backpacks
\nover their heads for protection. Upon the warning signal for a
\ntsunami, children run to designated high-rise buildings to save
\nthemselves from what could be an oncoming wall of water.<\/p>\n
But at Air Bangis, the northern-most town on the coast of West
\nSumatra, it's a different story. This small fishing port has a
\npopulation of 18,000 people. Five points have been selected as
\nevacuation sites in the hills one kilometer away from the town.
\nBut evacuation routes have not been cleared and no attempt has
\nbeen made to level the ground or prepare it for campsites.<\/p>\n
A site has been selected for a soup kitchen but a source of
\nsafe drinking water has yet to be found. The authorities know
\nwhat needs to be done but say they have no funds for disaster
\npreparedness. They hope that some of the money promised by the
\ninternational community for disaster relief can be used for
\ndisaster preparedness.<\/p>\n
Around the world, the public in many countries immediately
\ncontributed unprecedented amounts of cash to help tsunami
\nsurvivors as they watched their plight unfolding on TV. The
\nconcern and generosity of the public obliged the governments of
\ndonor countries, including Canada, to follow suit. Relief
\nsupplies of food and medicines were delivered promptly and a
\nsecond wave of mass-mortality from starvation and disease was
\naverted. But little has yet been achieved on the early warning or
\ndisaster preparedness front.<\/p>\n
At a meeting of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
\nof the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
\nOrganization in Mauritius, in April, it was agreed that more work
\nwas needed on national tsunami warning systems before an Indian
\nOcean early warning system could be established. Nevertheless,
\nUNESCO expects that a blueprint for the system will be adopted
\nsoon and that the system itself will be operational by June 2006.<\/p>\n
Natural disasters are increasing in terms of frequency,
\ncomplexity, scope and destructive capacity. Over the past two
\ndecades, earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, floods, landslides,
\nvolcanic eruptions and wildfires have killed millions of people
\nand resulted in enormous damages. Poor and developing countries
\nsuffer the greatest losses.<\/p>\n
In Indonesia, the World Food Program, along with the
\ngovernment's Disaster Preparedness and Management Board
\n(BAKORNAS), has taken the lead on a disaster preparedness plan
\nfor West Sumatra. When implemented, an effective contingency plan
\ncould make the difference between life and death for hundreds of
\nthousands of Indonesians. Foreign aid programs should treat
\ndisaster preparedness as a part of disaster management. It would
\nbe a wise use of taxpayer's money.<\/p>\n
The writer is a former director of Emergencies of the United
\nNations World Food Program. He worked as a consultant for WFP in
\ntsunami-struck Indonesia from April to June 2005. The views
\nexpressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent those
\nof the United Nations.<\/p>",
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