Power struggle looming in China<\/p>\n
By Rizal Sukma<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): When China's paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping,
\ndied in February this year, many analysts speculated that China
\nwould face the problem of succession.<\/p>\n
Even though Deng had already appointed China's Communist Party
\n(CCP) Secretary-General and President Jiang Zemin as his heir,
\nmany believed that this crucial issue would not be easily solved.<\/p>\n
For a few months after Deng's death, however, China's
\nleadership in Beijing managed to convey the impression to the
\noutside world that such speculation was fanciful.<\/p>\n
On the surface, it seemed that things were going as smoothly
\nas planned. Jiang even managed to display his supreme grip on
\npower, despite his credentials as the chosen successor, when
\nleaders of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) pledged to give
\ntheir military loyalty to \"the third generation leadership with
\nJiang Zemin at the core\".<\/p>\n
However, recent developments in China's domestic political
\nscene suggest otherwise.<\/p>\n
As the 15th Congress of the CCP approaches, scheduled to take
\nplace in the coming Autumn, it has become clearer that a power
\nstruggle among Chinese leaders is looming.<\/p>\n
It began with the publication of the \"10,000 characters\" in
\nMay, an attack by leftists, on a number of issues often closely
\nassociated with Jiang's platform of reform. The document, in the
\nmain, warned of the danger that could be brought by
\n\"westernization\", \"bourgeois liberalization\" and \"privatization\"
\nto China's socialist system.<\/p>\n
More directly, the letter accused provincial leaders, senior
\nparty cadres, state official and intellectuals of promoting
\n\"bourgeois liberalization.\"<\/p>\n
Indeed, the leftists have been trying to highlight what they
\nsee as the destruction of state control over production and the
\nselling out of socialism.<\/p>\n
Signs of an imminent power struggle became even more evident
\nwhen Jiang responded strongly to the charges. He warned that a
\ngroup of leftists were trying to exploit some \"social
\ncontradictions\" within the society for their own political
\npurposes.<\/p>\n
He also warned that the CCP should never ignore a challenge
\nfrom remnant Maoists.<\/p>\n
Challenges from the leftists constitute one of the daunting
\nproblems that Jiang has to deal with in the run-up to the 15th
\nCCP Congress. It seems that such defiance may even become more
\npressing if Jiang announced and pushed for greater economic
\nreform and liberalization at the coming Congress.<\/p>\n
Indeed, it has been reported that Jiang is preparing a major
\nboost to reforms, especially in accelerating the process of
\ncreating the basic framework for a market economy in China and
\nstrengthening the role of the private sector.<\/p>\n
In addition to such crucial issues, there is another problem
\nfor which Jiang must find a solution. In this regard, he must
\ndetermine who should fill the key positions in the power
\nstructure.<\/p>\n
The main issue will center around the question of who might
\nbecome the prime minister. It has been widely speculated that it
\nis very likely that Jiang will endorse the appointment of the
\nreform-minded Zhu Rongji, currently deputy prime minister, to
\nreplace incumbent Prime Minister Li Peng.<\/p>\n
It is also said that Li Peng would be made Chairman of the
\nNational People Congress (NPC) replacing Qiao Shi. This means
\nthat Jiang has to find a new position for Qiao Shi. It is not
\nclear, therefore, whether Li Peng and especially Qiao Shi will
\naccept this arrangement.<\/p>\n
It is likely that Jiang might have thought about this problem.
\nHis plan to revive the post of chairman of the CCP, if accepted,
\nwill provide a position that can be offered to Qiao Shi, namely,
\nthe position of Vice-Chairman of the CCP.<\/p>\n
However, it is apparently not easy for Jiang to revive that
\nposition. Many within the party are worried that the plan is
\nactually intended to serve Jiang's personal ambition in elevating
\nhis own stature in China's politics.<\/p>\n
Even Jiang's own followers and supporters maintain that
\nreviving the position closely associated with Mao Zedong's
\nunrivaled authority, which was abolished by Deng when he came to
\npower at the end of the 1970s, will have negative consequences.<\/p>\n
Many unhappy episodes in China's domestic politics were in
\npart caused by the exercise of unlimited power held by Mao. Bad
\nmemories linger of the Wenhua Dageming (Cultural Revolution), for
\nexample, which existed in the not-too-distant past for most
\nChinese. No matter how much Mao is revered, surely no one would
\nlike to go back to the time where a leader's unlimited power
\ncould affect the lives of almost any individual.<\/p>\n
What is, then, the prospect for Jiang to remain in power?<\/p>\n
It seems that up to now, Jiang is one step ahead of his
\nrivals. There are at least three noticeable tactics that Jiang is
\npursuing in order to secure his position.<\/p>\n
First, Jiang continues to seek support from the military. The
\nmain support has, among others, come from the army's top man Gen.
\nLi Huaqing, who is also vice chairman of the Central Military
\nCommission (CMC) and a member of the Standing Committee of the
\nCCP Politburo.<\/p>\n
In a recent speech before a veterans' meeting to celebrate the
\n70th Anniversary of the PLA, Gen. Liu clearly stated that the PLA
\nshould \"resolutely obey the command of the CCP Central Committee
\nand the CMC, with Comrade Jiang Zemin at the core.\"<\/p>\n
At the closing of the speech, he again reiterated that \"the
\nwhole Army must closely unite around the CCP Central Committee
\nand the CMC with Comrade Jiang Zemin at the core\" (BBC Summary of
\nWorld Broadcasts, Aug. 12, 1997).<\/p>\n
Second, Jiang has also engaged in \"image-making\" to elevate
\nhis own standing and credibility as the paramount leader of a
\npost-Deng China. One indication of the use of this tactic is that
\nthe publication of a text book compiling the thoughts of Mao
\nZedong, Deng Xiaoping and also Jiang.<\/p>\n
Indeed, the publication of the book can be interpreted as an
\nattempt by Jiang to put himself on the same ideological level as
\nMao and Deng. By associating himself with the two Chinese great
\nleaders, it seems that he attempts to further bolster his own
\nlegitimacy.<\/p>\n
As an editorial in the People's Daily said: \"Coming ahead of
\nthe 15th party congress, (the publication) is an ideological
\nweapon for our party to understand and change the world...\" (The
\nIndonesian Observer, Aug. 8, 1997).<\/p>\n
Third, Jiang has also tried to strengthen his position by
\npushing for further economic reforms. For example, Jiang has
\ntried to boost his reformist credentials at the recent meeting of
\ntop leaders at the resort area of Beidahe.<\/p>\n
More importantly, Jiang has made it known that he intends to
\nendorse a number of measures that would further cut the role of
\nthe state in the economy. For example, Jiang proposes to
\ntransform some large and medium scale state-owned companies into
\nshare-holding companies. He has also endorsed the concept of
\nshehuihua shengchan or \"socialized production\" to justify the
\nidea. This has received strong support from provincial leaders.<\/p>\n
However, it is still too early to say if Jiang has succeeded
\nin securing his position in the run up to the congress. Other
\ncontending leaders, such as Li Peng and Qiao Shi, have not
\nexpressed their position clearly.<\/p>\n
There is still Deng Liqun, an elder who is often identified as
\na leader of an anti-Jiang faction, to reckon with. Therefore, how
\nJiang plans to deal with these challenges will become clearer at
\nthe upcoming CCP Congress.<\/p>\n
The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
\nInternational Studies, Jakarta.<\/p>",
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