Post-Mahathir, ASEAN faces another crunch<\/p>\n
Pana Janviroj, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok<\/p>\n
This week's ASEAN Summit in Bali will bid farewell to
\nMalaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who is due to retire
\nshortly. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been more
\nthan a sentimental journey for the Malaysian leader.<\/p>\n
Whatever efforts Malaysia has made to strengthen ASEAN or
\nwhatever benefits it has reaped from being an influential
\nfounding member, the grand vision which Mahathir painted for the
\nregional grouping unfortunately was never realized.<\/p>\n
That grand vision was to build on ASEAN and create the East
\nAsia Economic Caucus (EAEC) in the 1980s. It was to be a
\ndistinctively Asian-flavored economic grouping, that is to say
\nwithout the Americans and the Australians. But Thailand was among
\nthose which did not go for it. Eventually the ASEAN Free Trade
\nArea (AFTA) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
\nforum emerged as alternative models.<\/p>\n
But that is not to say that Mahathir's grand vision is all but
\nforgotten. The distinctive Asian values at least caught the
\nimagination of new and younger leaders such as Thai Prime
\nMinister Thaksin Shinawatra. The later has always shown his
\nadmiration for the outgoing Malaysian prime minister. Their eye-
\nto-eye meetings have become a talking point in diplomatic
\ncircles.<\/p>\n
Thaksin's own initiatives, the Asia Cooperation Dialog and the
\nAsia Bonds, designed as different types of vehicle for Asian
\nnations to work together and share the benefits, most certainly
\nwere influenced by Mahathir's thinking on Asia.<\/p>\n
And in Bali it is Thaksin, the rising star of Asian leaders
\nand one who perhaps is Mahathir's protege in mind and spirit, who
\nshould pay greatest tribute to the retiring Malaysian leader.<\/p>\n
Yet the challenges facing Thaksin in uniting ASEAN and moving
\nit forward are far from easy. If Mahathir's most recent legacy on
\nASEAN was his strong support for the expansion of the regional
\ngrouping to admit Burma, Cambodia and Laos as members, the ASEAN
\nera with Thaksin will be one of trying to hold the members and
\ntheir interests together.<\/p>\n
At the Bali summit next week, the tradition of reaching
\nconsensus among the 10 ASEAN member countries, which has been a
\nsource of strength as well as weakness to the group, will give
\nway to an even greater two-track membership development at a time
\nof great change in world geopolitics.<\/p>\n
For instance Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's
\nproposed ASEAN Economic Community is expected to be adopted by
\nmember countries ready to do so such as Thailand and Malaysia.
\nThe \"ASEAN minus X\" will make ASEAN more fragmented than before
\nbut is seen as a possible savior in face of the dwindling
\neconomic attractiveness of this region, particularly in terms of
\nforeign investment, which is going largely to China.<\/p>\n
And more questions than answers have emerged on how different
\nmembers of ASEAN should approach the new world order. Will
\nThailand, for example, broach a free-trade agreement with the
\nU.S. with the intention of merging it eventually with ASEAN's
\neconomic interests?<\/p>\n
Can Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines convince the
\nUnited States that the best way to engage China is to strengthen
\nASEAN? Or will the ASEAN members be able to convince China that
\nthe best way it can become a force to be reckoned with is to make
\nASEAN strong? And what about Malaysia's controversial opt-out
\nclause on the automobile trade under AFTA, which has hurt ASEAN's
\nreputation?<\/p>\n
These pending united or disunited strategies have emerged as a
\nchallenge in themselves. But it all foretells one thing: One
\nsingle ASEAN member nation can undermine the clout of the entire
\ngroup, and no single ASEAN nation can go it alone or have the
\nbargaining power that the entire group can have.<\/p>\n
Mahathir is leaving at a time when a new pragmatism in world
\npolitics has given way to bilateralism. The Thaksin era will
\nincreasingly be one in which national interests easily overshadow
\nASEAN interests due to the immediate seductiveness of bilateral
\neconomic deals and the ease with which patience can run out on
\nforging consensus among the group's members.<\/p>\n
But the economics of togetherness continue to be the most
\nbeneficial and obvious. And this week's announcement of the
\ndetailed terms of Hong Kong's new trade pact with China is a case
\nin point. The deal will give Hong Kong companies preferential
\naccess to 18 types of Chinese consumer in services including
\nbanking, insurance, movies, advertising, construction and
\nshipping.<\/p>\n
Policy-makers from Beijing and Hong Kong have given importance
\nto complementarity and the needs of cost-conscious service firms.
\nThe same intensity cannot be said of the way ASEAN thinks or does
\nthings. Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore continue to try and
\noutdo one another without giving due attention to synergy and
\nscale.<\/p>\n
ASEAN was less than bold even when the opportunity presented
\nitself with the 1997 crisis. Can the post-Mahathir era be
\ndifferent? There are some positive signs there, but only truly
\nvisionary leaders can convince others to take that one giant
\nleap.<\/p>",
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