Popularity a vital factor in Surabaya elections<\/p>\n
Candidates running for mayor and deputy mayor in the Surabaya
\nregional elections will have their fate determined on Monday,
\nJune 27. Speculation is rife, but the election's outcome is far
\nfrom clear. The following is an excerpt of an interview with
\nSurabaya's Airlangga University director of the Center for
\nDemocracy and Human Rights Studies, Mohammad Asfar, with The
\nJakarta Post's Indra Harsaputra.<\/p>\n
Question:Do you see any specific difference in public behavior
\nin the direct elections for regional heads compared to the
\nprevious general elections?<\/p>\n
Answer: The regional election arena is not far different from
\nthe previous general elections. The behavior of regional
\ncommunities in the election of regional heads is in fact about
\nthe same as that in last year's presidential elections, where
\npeople were more inclined to choose the contender based on their
\npopularity rather than their political party associations.<\/p>\n
In the last presidential elections in Surabaya, for instance,
\nthe majority of votes went to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, while in
\nthe earlier legislative elections most Surabayans voted for the
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).<\/p>\n
In these regional elections, the fame of candidates seems to
\nbe the determining factor. Based on my opinion polls in several
\nparts of East Java, like Surabaya and Lamongan, around 70 percent
\nof regional candidates are relying on their degree of popularity
\namong local people.<\/p>\n
In Lamongan, Masfuk as a candidate is backed by 70 percent of
\nthe local community even though he is a non-party figure. In
\nSurabaya, Bambang DH is far more famous than the other candidates
\nso he has a chance of winning. He made his preparations in
\ngaining popularity three years ago, whereas the other contestants
\nonly had one or two months to introduce themselves to the public.
\nSo it's understandable that some people are not yet familiar with
\nsome of the candidates.<\/p>\n
Does the media have a role in building candidate popularity?<\/p>\n
Today many nominees are applying direct campaigning methods by
\ndistributing posters and leaflets in villages, which is actually
\neffective in raising candidate popularity. Meanwhile, the role of
\nthe (printed) media is less effective due to low rates of
\nreadership.<\/p>\n
In my research, 30 percent of 1,000 people in Surabaya were
\naware of candidates from posters rather than through the media.
\nErlangga Satriagung, for instance, has written many articles in
\nvarious newspapers before the campaigning period, yet he is far
\nless prominent than Bambang DH, whose posters are plastered all
\nover the city.<\/p>\n
Effective regional election campaigns are conducted through
\ndialogues in market places, religious gatherings, neighborhood
\nmeetings and other programs with the masses. This is unlike
\nprevious elections, where contenders were popularized through the
\nmedia.<\/p>\n
Does the participation of Dahlan Iskan, the Jawa Pos CEO, as a
\ncampaigner for one of the candidates affected public response?<\/p>\n
It's obvious that Jawa Pos as the largest newspaper in East
\nJava has contributed to the campaigns of the contestants. Dahlan
\nIskan, as indicated in my November 2004 survey, ranked second
\nafter Bambang DH as respondent's preferred choice. Dahlan is more
\nwell known as the owner of this daily (newspaper) than as an
\nentrepreneur.<\/p>\n
Arif Affandi, Jawa Pos' former chief editor, has also jacked
\nup public support for Bambang DH. Both newspaper bosses helped
\nfurther raise support for Bambang DH from only 43 percent of the
\nvotes of 1,000 respondents in November to 46.75 percent after he
\npaired up with Arif in June.<\/p>\n
What is the role of political parties, which carry the votes
\nof their constituents for their candidates?<\/p>\n
Popularity certainly also comes from the political parties
\nfielding the relevant candidates. Erlangga Satriagung, the
\nmayoral aspirant from the National Mandate Party (PAN) in my
\ninitial survey in November 2004, was unknown by the 1,000
\nrespondents in Surabaya.<\/p>\n
But after he was nominated by PAN, Erlangga's poll
\nprovisionally reached 13.3 percent, meaning the party had an
\nindirect role in pushing up Erlangga's popularity.<\/p>\n
Likewise, Bambang DH, the other candidate, with the support of
\nPDIP managed to score 48.9 percent of 1,000 respondents, far more
\nthan Erlangga. Bambang's score was due to the large number of
\nPDIP followers and sympathizers in the city.<\/p>\n
However, the National Awakening Party (PKB), fielding
\nAlisyabana and Wahyudin Husein, provisionally registered a lower
\nrate than Bambang DH while PKB's constituents in Surabaya were
\nalso as dominant as PDIP. With PKB's internal conflicts, many of
\ntheir supporters have turned to candidates from other parties.
\nThe Golkar Party with Gatot Sudjito also saw their vote split due
\nto a lack of solidity.<\/p>\n
What about religious organizations like Nahdlatul Ulama (NU)
\nand Muhammadiyah?<\/p>\n
NU and Muhammadiyah have always added color to elections in
\nIndonesia, including the regional elections. NU figures and
\ncommunities still contribute greatly to the votes of candidates.<\/p>\n
Arif Affandi, Bambang DH's running mate, has frequently
\nvisited Islamic boarding schools (pesantren) in Surabaya. This
\nformer Jawa Pos chief editor is now even more welcomed by
\npesantren circles than Wahyudin Husein, who is on PKB's branch
\nexecutive board. Wahyudin is less active in associating in these
\ncircles, while he was considered closer to NU members in Surabaya
\nbefore nomination. If Arif maintains his ties with pesantren
\npeople then he is likely to become Surabaya's strongest mayoral
\ncontender.<\/p>",
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