Peace hopes surround SE Asian gas pipeline<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (AP): Its supporters say it has the potential to
\nbring peace and stability to Southeast Asia, but critics call it
\na pipe dream.<\/p>\n
Over the next couple of decades, the state-owned oil companies
\nof the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plan to link
\ntogether thousands of kilometers of pipe - both underwater and on
\nland - to form a massive natural gas pipeline.<\/p>\n
Backers hope the project will be a major boost to Asean
\nintegration and eventually extend beyond Southeast Asia, possibly
\nto China and India. While requiring a huge amount of coordination
\nto build, the pipeline would ensure a constant supply of natural
\ngas for the region.<\/p>\n
But political unrest in Indonesia and border disputes between
\nThailand and Myanmar threaten to derail the grand vision, and no
\none knows if the pan-Asian pipeline will become a reality or
\nremain in its current, fragmented state.<\/p>\n
Much of the gas that will be tapped to feed the giant energy
\ngrid is in Indonesia, where separatist rebel activity threatens
\nthe economic viability of the project.<\/p>\n
\"Our own perception is that these political instabilities are
\njust ripples,\" said Guillermo Balce, the head of the Asean Center
\nfor Energy in Indonesia. \"The countries of Southeast Asia,
\npolitically, are in harmony because they have to be, especially
\nat the economic level.\"<\/p>\n
ASEAN countries Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
\nMyanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam have
\nagreed to the project in principle.<\/p>\n
But there is no set timetable for its completion, and
\nestimates on its cost fluctuate between $15 billion and $30
\nbillion.<\/p>\n
About 2,540 kilometers of cross-border pipeline is already in
\nplace between Malaysia and Singapore, Myanmar and Thailand, and
\nIndonesia and Singapore.<\/p>\n
The first gas to travel through a $1.5 billion, 640 kilometer
\npipeline went from Indonesia to Singapore in January. Another
\npipeline from Indonesia to Singapore is under construction at a
\ncost of $1.2 billion.<\/p>\n
The exact length of an eventual trans-Asean pipeline isn't
\nknown. And no one has estimated how much extra pipe - feeding off
\nthe main line - will be needed to service the domestic markets in
\neach nation.<\/p>\n
The current links, the beginning of the pipeline project, have
\nevolved from bilateral agreements, said Dr. Mohd Farid Mohd Amin
\nfrom Malaysia's state-owned Petroliam Nasional Bhd.<\/p>\n
\"The future challenge will involve multilateral arrangements\"
\nthat are far more complicated because three or more nations have
\nto agree, said Amin, who is in charge of implementing the Asean
\nproject.<\/p>\n
Amin and others believe a coordinated and constant gas supply
\nwill greatly enhance security in Southeast Asia, but that there's
\na long way to go before the dream becomes a reality.<\/p>\n
\"It's good from a world peace point-of-view, but it needs to
\nbe economically viable,\" said John Vautrain, a U.S.-based energy
\nconsultant, adding that such projects usually succeed only if
\nprivate energy companies back them. So far, none has.<\/p>\n
There is talk that the pipeline will reach into India and
\nChina but Amin said \"the main priority is to try to get the gas
\nto Asean nations first.\"<\/p>\n
That might require a degree of political will that doesn't
\ncurrently exist in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
\"It's easy to agree on something that's not going to happen
\ntomorrow and that you don't have to do anything about today,\"
\nAmin said.<\/p>\n
And then there are the issues of control and sovereignty.<\/p>\n
Countries will have to agree to play host for huge amounts of
\nnatural gas bound for somewhere else - and many may seek to
\nbecome centers of regional gas distribution.<\/p>\n
\"The biggest impediment is that everyone wants to be a hub,\"
\nsaid energy consultant Sharon Siddique. \"That's the crux of the
\nissue and not everybody is going to be a hub.\"<\/p>\n
Another problem, she said, is the issue of demand. Asia is
\ncurrently facing a power glut, unlike three years ago when the
\npipeline project first began to be taken seriously.<\/p>\n
Siddique said that in the past oil companies liked to believe
\nthey were untouched by trouble in the region. But Exxon Mobil
\nCorp. (XOM), citing security concerns, recently had to stop
\nproduction during uprisings in the Indonesian province of Aceh.<\/p>\n
Border tensions, especially between Myanmar and Thailand, need
\nto be quelled and the question of continuing sanctions against
\nMyanmar for its human rights record needs to be answered before
\nthe pipeline project can flourish, Siddique said.<\/p>",
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