PDI-P, Golkar have chance to form coalition<\/p>\n
Ridwan Max Sijabat, Writer staff, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Ridwan@thejakartapost.com<\/p>\n
The large number of political parties, and the fragmentation
\nof around 147 million eligible voters, have indicated that no
\nparty will win a simple majority in the legislative election
\nscheduled for April 5. But several major parties are expected to
\nwin a sizable vote that will force them to form an alliance or
\ncoalition, so that they can nominate strong presidential and vice
\npresidential candidates in order to win 50 percent of the vote-
\nplus one in the first round of the presidential election on July
\n5.<\/p>\n
The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P),
\nGolkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), National
\nAwakening Party (PKB), National Mandate Party (PAN) and several
\nnewcomers, including the Democratic Party and Prosperous Justice
\nParty (PKS), have stepped up their campaigns to win as many votes
\nas possible in the legislative election.<\/p>\n
The PDI-P and Golkar have targeted to win 25 percent to 30
\npercent of seats in the legislature, a little more than what gave
\nthem their simple victory in the 1999 election, while the other
\nparties aim to win 3 percent to 17 percent of seats.<\/p>\n
The legislative election has a strong link with the
\npresidential election because it will be difficult for a
\npresident to rule unless the person is supported by a majority of
\nthe legislature (DPR). This is why party leaders have gone all
\nout to win as many seats as possible in the DPR.<\/p>\n
The political configuration resulting from the legislative
\nelection will pave the way for the PDI-P and Golkar to form a
\nstrong coalition. President Megawati Soekarnoputri, fighting for
\na second term in office, would find it difficult to form a
\npairing with former president Abdurrahman \"Gus Dur\" Wahid, who
\nwill be nominated by the PKB and supported by the largest Muslim
\norganization, Nahdlatul Ulama, or with Amien Rais of PAN,
\nsupported by Muhammadiyah.<\/p>\n
Megawati will face a strong rival for the presidency if the
\nPKB makes a political maneuver to support former top security
\nminister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will be nominated by the
\nDemocratic Party.<\/p>\n
Golkar, which is expected to officially nominate party
\nchairman Akbar Tandjung, would gain political advantage in a
\ncoalition with the PDI-P.<\/p>\n
These two nationalist parties are intensifying their political
\ndeals as a precursor to forming a coalition after the legislative
\nelection.<\/p>\n
Despite her weaknesses, Megawati faces fewer problems than
\nother presidential candidates in winning the first-ever direct
\npresidential election. Besides having the full support of the
\nPDI-P, Megawati apparently has the backing of both the Indonesian
\nMilitary (TNI) and the National Police, and has received an
\nendorsement from the wider world, especially the United States,
\nto win the presidential election for a second term.<\/p>\n
Before hundreds of thousands of PDI-P supporters in Lampung
\nand North Sulawesi last week, Megawati insisted that she wanted
\nto have a politician with a good track record as her running mate
\nin the presidential election and was determined to win majority
\nsupport in the first round.<\/p>\n
Elite figures from both the PDI-P and Golkar have, for a long
\ntime, been paving the way to forming a coalition to win the
\npresidential election, but the lobbying has still been on an
\ninformal level, pending the legislative election results. Both
\nTaufik Kiemas, Megawati's husband and an influential leader
\nwithin the PDI-P, and Akbar, a strong presidential candidate from
\nGolkar, have hinted at a possible coalition, although this has
\nsparked strong protest and opposition from both the parties, and
\nthe move is seen as premature.<\/p>\n
Golkar, which also expects to win a sizable vote in the
\nlegislative election, will not respond immediately to the offer
\nof a possible coalition with the PDI-P for, besides waiting for
\nthe election results, the party still has to select its
\npresidential candidate through a convention, to be held after the
\nlegislative election.<\/p>\n
With his recent acquittal from corruption by the Supreme
\nCourt, Akbar, with the support by most party chapters, has a
\ngreat chance to win the presidential convention. However, will
\nAkbar and Golkar accept it if the PDI-P invites him to be a
\nrunning mate for Megawati to contend the presidential election?<\/p>\n
Taking into consideration all factors, including the track
\nrecords of the two parties and their presidential candidates,
\nGolkar, given its poor reputation during the New Order era under
\nSoeharto, will have little chance to fight for the top position.
\nGolkar will likely have to settle for a nomination to the
\nnation's second position.<\/p>\n
The other main consideration for Golkar and the PDI-P in
\nforming a strong coalition is that the two parties will not wish
\nto have to go through to the second round of the presidential
\nelection on Sept. 5, which would leave the country in a long
\nperiod of political uncertainty.<\/p>\n
It would certainly be more beneficial, both politically and
\neconomically, if the nation had a president and vice president
\nsupported by a majority of the electorate in the first-round
\nelection in early July.<\/p>",
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