Party without figure, figure without party<\/p>\n
Muhammad Qodari, Indonesian Survey Institute, (LSI),
\nJakarta, qodari@lsi.or.id<\/p>\n
In the 1999 elections it was widely believed that the number
\nof votes won by the six largest parties had a high correlation to
\nthe popularity of its leaders. One might say that the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) secured the
\nmajority of votes due to people's support for its leader,
\nMegawati Soekarnoputri.<\/p>\n
The same correlation applied in explaining the relation
\nbetween the Golkar Party and BJ Habibie, the National Awakening
\nParty (PKB) and Abdurrahman Wahid, the National Mandate Party
\n(PAN) and Amien Rais, and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and
\nYusril Ihza Mahendra. The only exception perhaps would be the
\nrelation between the United Development Party (PPP) and Hamzah
\nHaz.<\/p>\n
But according to recent surveys by various organizations,
\nincluding one carried out by the Indonesian Survey Institute
\n(LSI) in August 2003, this belief is not -- or at least, no
\nlonger -- true. Our nationwide survey, for example, found that if
\nthe election were held today (the day the survey interviews were
\nconducted), the winner would be Golkar, which was supported by 31
\npercent of respondents.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan would finish in second place with only 21
\npercent of the vote, followed by PKB (11 percent), PPP (10
\npercent) and PAN (5 percent).<\/p>\n
It is interesting to compare the above results on party choice
\nwith findings from the same survey on presidential choice. If the
\npresidential election was held today, the candidate with the most
\nsupport would be Megawati Soekarnoputri (20 percent).<\/p>\n
Surprisingly, in second would be Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (13
\npercent), an independent figure who is not (yet) affiliated with
\nany major party. The two were followed by five candidates from
\nmajor parties who gained more or less the same number of votes (8
\npercent to 9 percent): Hamzah Haz, Akbar Tanjung, Abdurrahman
\nWahid, Amien Rais and Yusril Ihza Mahendra.<\/p>\n
Comparing both results, we can categorize the relationship
\nbetween parties and candidates into three groups. The first group
\nis where the popularity of parties and candidates are more or
\nless equal. Included in this group would be PDI Perjuangan and
\nMegawati, PPP and Hamzah, PKB and Wahid, and PAN and Amien.<\/p>\n
The second group is where the party is much more popular than
\nthe candidate, a group which applies only to Golkar and Akbar. At
\nLSI, we coined the term "party without figure" to refer to this
\nphenomenon.<\/p>\n
The third group refers to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Yusril.
\nSusilo is often associated with the Democrat Party (PD), a new
\nparty without any clear chance in the upcoming elections. As for
\nYusril, his popularity far exceeds that of PBB. We call this
\nphenomenon "figure without party".<\/p>\n
From the above findings, the stark contrast is between PDI
\nPerjuangan and Golkar. PDI Perjuangan may not be the winner in
\nthe legislative election to be held in April 2004, however its
\nchairwoman, President Megawati, is still the strongest contender
\nfor next year's presidential race.<\/p>\n
As for Golkar, it may be able to dominate the legislature,
\ntaking over from PDI Perjuangan, but because next year's
\npresidential election will not be determined by the hundreds of
\nlegislators but by 145 million voters all over Indonesia, the
\nchances for Golkar's most prominent figure, Akbar Tanjung, are
\ndismal.<\/p>\n
Golkar seems to realize its situation, preparing to hold a so-
\ncalled convention to select its presidential candidate. Despite
\nthe controversy surrounding the process, Golkar has managed to
\nselect seven nominees who will participate in the convention to
\nbe held after legislative election in April next year. The seven
\nnominees are: Aburizal Bakrie, Akbar Tanjung, Yusuf Kalla,
\nPrabowo Subianto, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Surya Paloh and Gen.
\n(ret) Wiranto.<\/p>\n
Who will be the winner of the convention is not yet known.
\nNonetheless, the most important question to be asked today is:
\n"Is there someone among the seven nominees who stands a good
\nchance against Megawati and candidates from other parties in the
\npresidential election?"<\/p>\n
So far, our survey has revealed that none of Golkar's nominees
\nis popular enough to win the support of voters. Akbar was chosen
\nby less than 9 percent of respondents, while Yusuf Kalla was
\nsupported by 3 percent of respondent.<\/p>\n
Golkar has become a party without a figure. That's why we may
\nonce again be trapped in a situation resembling Abdurrahman
\nWahid's presidency from 1999 to 2001, when the president was not
\nbacked by the biggest party in the legislature.<\/p>\n
Wahid was indeed a peculiar president who frequently made
\ncontroversial statements, fired aides who came from parties other
\nthan the PKB and was accused of alleged involvement in a
\ncorruption scandal. However, the most important variable of his
\nimpeachment was the fact that Wahid was not backed by the biggest
\nparty in the legislature.<\/p>\n
So for the sake of winning the presidential election next
\nyear, as well as the stability of government for the next five
\nyears, Golkar must prepare another strategy to come up with a
\nstrong presidential candidate. If the winner of the convention
\nproves unpopular to the majority of Indonesian voters, which can
\nbe determined by credible surveys by Golkar's internal research
\nbureau or by independent organizations, Golkar must be willing to
\nadopt a contingency plan. That would be to recruit an alternative
\ncandidate who is both popular with Golkar's constituency as well
\nas a majority of Indonesian voters.<\/p>",
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