Out-of-step Myanmar faces ASEAN pressure to change<\/p>\n
Dominic Whiting, Reuters, Yangon<\/p>\n
Myanmar's military rulers, marching completely out of step with
\nregional efforts to boost trade and investment, could soon face
\npressure from Southeast Asian allies to embrace political change,
\ndiplomats say.<\/p>\n
Myanmar has been a troublesome partner in the Association of
\nSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ever since it joined in 1997, and
\nits generals went a stage further last week by announcing a ban
\non all foreign trading firms, most of which are from ASEAN
\nstates.<\/p>\n
The move, which Yangon said was aimed at protecting local
\nbusinesses, has raised hackles in ASEAN, which is trying to
\nensure sustained growth by liberalizing trade and investment.<\/p>\n
Thailand's Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai brought up
\nthe issue with his counterpart Win Aung on Saturday and Thai
\nofficials said ASEAN would try to persuade Myanmar to reverse the
\ndecision.<\/p>\n
They said Win Aung had replied that foreign trading firms
\nwould have to enter joint ventures with Myanmar companies if they
\nwanted to continue operating.<\/p>\n
Although ASEAN is still far from a collection of model open
\neconomies and sticks to a policy of non-interference in the
\naffairs of member states, Myanmar's increasingly introspective
\nline is testing its patience, diplomats in Yangon say.<\/p>\n
\"A number of the firms are from ASEAN, especially Singapore,\"
\nsaid one. \"It's going to be taken as a very unfriendly
\nact...another in a long string of insults to investors and
\ntraders.\"<\/p>\n
\"It hurts ASEAN's investments -- they don't have a lot of
\nspare money -- and ASEAN's reputation.\"<\/p>\n
Foreign businesses in Myanmar already face pressure from human
\nrights groups who say their presence props up the military
\nregime, and are hampered by offbeat economic policies which blend
\nmysticism and communist-style central planning.<\/p>\n
\"People have been pulling out for five years,\" said a Western
\ndiplomat. \"You can make money on deals -- gems, petrochemicals,
\nteak or drugs -- but fixed investment isn't worth it.\"<\/p>\n
Foreign business people in Yangon warn the ban will cause
\nimports of essentials such as medicines to dry up. Exports of
\nMyanmar's main agricultural produce, grains and pulses, will also
\nsuffer and jobs will inevitably be lost, they say.<\/p>\n
Myanmar is already slipping down the ranks of the world's
\npoorest countries, but its ruling generals deny anything is
\nwrong. They say frequent day-long power cuts are due to newly
\nprosperous people buying electrical appliances. A slumping
\ncurrency and near hyperinflation are blamed on speculators.<\/p>\n
Shunned by the West, the generals value the legitimacy ASEAN
\nmembership confers, and clearly revelled in their role as hosts
\nto a weekend meeting of the group's finance ministers, even if
\ntheir uniforms and medals looked curiously out of place among the
\nsober business suits of visiting delegates.<\/p>\n
Escorted to the meeting by scores of machinegun-wielding
\nsoldiers, military intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt told
\nministers Myanmar's economy was \"vibrant\" and should grow by more
\nthan 6 percent annually in the next five years.<\/p>\n
But countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, which
\ninvested heavily when Myanmar began opening its economy in the
\nearly 1990s, are starting to see it as a burden which not only
\noffers poor returns, but hurts ASEAN's ties with Western
\ncountries pressing for change.<\/p>\n
\"These countries have bigger fish to fry,\" said the Western
\ndiplomat. \"Their relations with other countries -- the EU, Japan
\nand United States -- are very important.\"<\/p>\n
Western diplomats predict that as ASEAN patience with Myanmar
\nwears thin, key members will start to put pressure on the regime
\nto press ahead with political change.<\/p>\n
The junta has been engaged for the last 18 months in United
\nNations-brokered talks with Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and
\nher National League for Democracy (NLD), which swept democratic
\nelections in 1990 by a landslide but was never allowed to rule.<\/p>\n
Although the junta has released more than 250 political
\nprisoners since the talks started and eased some restrictions on
\nthe NLD, progress has been painfully slow. Suu Kyi herself
\nremains under house arrest and up to 1,600 political prisoners
\nstill languish in jail.<\/p>\n
Diplomats say Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is
\nperhaps the only figure who could persuade Myanmar's generals to
\nmove forward in the talks.<\/p>\n
He is thought to have much influence among Myanmar's top brass
\nand is the main backer of compatriot and UN envoy Razali Ismail,
\nwho is due to visit Yangon again on April 23.<\/p>\n
Diplomats say Mahathir could quietly encourage change without
\nit appearing to be imposed from outside. \"He's the elder
\nstatesman of ASEAN and he's combative as far as ASEAN's relations
\nwith the West are concerned,\" one said.<\/p>\n
\"And Malaysia should be an attractive model for them, as in
\nmany ways are China and Vietnam. The models there mean you
\npreserve national unity and get development as well.\"<\/p>",
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