Only elite few may determine succession issue<\/p>\n
By Haryoso<\/p>\n
SEMARANG (JP): The question of who will succeed President
\nSoeharto, if and when he steps down, is very likely to be settled
\nby the ruling political elite, a political scientist says.<\/p>\n
\"Our political culture does not really recognize the mechanism
\nof leadership succession,\" Susilo Utomo of the Diponegoro
\nUniversity said in a seminar here on Monday.<\/p>\n
Succession will likely be determined by an elite few, while
\nthe masses will be excluded from the process of selecting or
\nelecting the new president, Susilo said.<\/p>\n
\"It's no wonder that the leaders of certain political groups
\nkeep telling us that it is unethical to talk about succession.
\nThey're virtually saying that the people should not even be
\nbothered about this issue.\"<\/p>\n
Debate over who's going to succeed President Soeharto appears
\nto have become a favorite pastime for scholars and politicians
\nover the last decade. But the debates have remained largely
\nacademic with the incumbent getting reelected all the time
\nwithout any opposition.<\/p>\n
Golkar, the dominant political organization, has refused to be
\ndrawn into the succession debate, with chairman Harmoko stressing
\nthat it is unethical to even talk about it while the incumbent is
\nstill leading the nation.<\/p>\n
Soeharto, now 74 years old, will end his current term in
\noffice in 1998. Whether or not he will run for a sixth term is
\nstill anybody's guess at this stage, but the debate continues.<\/p>\n
The Monday seminar entitled \"Succession Based on the
\nIndonesian Legal System\" also heard the opinions of Harun Al
\nRasid, an expert on administrative law from Cokroaminoto
\nUniversity in Yogyakarta, and Muchsan, an expert on public
\nadministration from Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta. Around
\n500 students attended the meeting.<\/p>\n
Susilo senses that there's a conscious attempt by the
\ncountry's political elite to exclude people from the succession
\nprocess.<\/p>\n
Each time the subject of succession is debated, those who
\nraise or join the debate will be quickly frowned upon, and the
\ndebate terminated, he said. \"I think whether the succession will
\nbe bloody or peaceful will depend very much on the ability of the
\nruling elite to reach a consensus.\"<\/p>\n
Even Indonesia's growing middle class, which is widely
\nexpected to push for political reforms like their counterparts in
\nother Asian countries, is prevented from taking part in the
\nsuccession process. They are powerless when it comes to making
\nthe process more transparent, he said.<\/p>\n
\"It's a pity that the Indonesian middle classes are still too
\ndependent on the ruling political elite. I doubt that these
\nmiddle classes will ever take part in `high politics'. We can't
\nexpect them to make their presence felt,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Asked if he thought Soeharto would run again after 1998,
\nSusilo responded:<\/p>\n
\"Politically, Pak Harto is still fit and strong. And given the
\ncurrent political climate in Indonesia, Pak Harto will continue
\nto lead this nation.<\/p>\n
\"There's no reason for him to step down because he is still
\nhealthy and the 1945 Constitution allows him to continue to
\nrule.\"<\/p>\n
Harun in his presentation focused his argument on the misuse
\nof the term \"succession\".<\/p>\n
Literally speaking, succession only occurs when a leader is
\nreplaced before the completion of his term, he said. If the
\npresident is replaced during an election held at the end of his
\nterm, it cannot be called succession.<\/p>\n
He pointed out that Indonesia experienced one succession when
\nSukarno was removed from power in 1967 by the Provisional
\nPeople's Consultative Assembly, which also installed Soeharto as
\nIndonesia's second president.<\/p>",
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