One year after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping tariffs\nthat he called \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d the White House now claims highly\npositive results from the policy. The US government states that the\ntrade deficit has narrowed, manufacturing investment is flowing\nstrongly, factory activity is rebounding, and American workers are\nbenefiting.<\/p>\n
In an official statement released on the White House website on\nThursday (2 April 2026), the US government even claims that its economy\nis now more resilient, more competitive, and safer than it was a year\nago.<\/p>\n
The Trump administration also emphasises that the \u201cAmerica First\u201d\ntrade policy has protected workers, generated new revenue from tariffs,\nimproved trade relations, and accelerated the return of manufacturing to\nAmerican soil.<\/p>\n
However, a closer look at this year of trade war reveals a story that\nis not as straightforward as the narrative of victory being promoted by\nthe White House. Some data do show beneficial changes for the US. But on\nthe other hand, many of Trump\u2019s grand promises have not fully\nmaterialised on the ground.<\/p>\n
Trade Deficit Has Indeed Narrowed<\/strong><\/p>\n One of the main claims by the US government concerns the sharp\ndecline in the goods trade deficit.<\/p>\n The Trump administration states that the US goods trade deficit from\nApril 2025 to February 2026 fell 24% compared to the same period a year\nearlier. The trade deficit with China is also claimed to have dropped\n32% over the past year, while that with the European Union shrank by\nnearly 40%.<\/p>\n From this perspective, the US government has grounds to claim that\nthe tariff policy has delivered results. Reducing the trade deficit has\nlong been one of Trump\u2019s primary targets.<\/p>\n For the government, the smaller the reliance on imports and the\nbetter the trade balance, the stronger America\u2019s economic position\nvis-\u00e0-vis its trading partners.<\/p>\n However, the issue does not end there. A shrinking trade deficit does\nnot automatically mean that the US industrial sector has truly\nrecovered. The trade balance is just one measure. To assess whether the\ntrade war has truly revived American manufacturing, the labour market,\ninvestment, and goods prices must also be considered.<\/p>\n Promises of Major Investment Not Fully Realised<\/strong><\/p>\n The White House also claims that the trade war has triggered a wave\nof reshoring, or the return of industry to the US. The White House\nstates that trillions of dollars in private and foreign investment are\nnow flowing into the American manufacturing sector, from technology\ncompanies, automotive, to pharmaceuticals.<\/p>\n However, according to an article from the Tax Foundation, the picture\nis more cautious.<\/p>\n Data on foreign direct investment (FDI) into the US throughout 2025\ndoes not show the dramatic surge repeatedly claimed by Trump.<\/p>\n Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows that foreign direct investment\n(FDI) into the US throughout 2025 did not show the dramatic surge\nrepeatedly claimed by Trump. Total FDI in 2025 was recorded at US$288.4\nbillion, which is below the 10-year average of US$320.7 billion. That\nfigure is also lower than the annual achievements in 2021, 2022, 2023,\nand 2024.<\/p>\n This means that, although there are many investment announcements and\ncommitments from major companies, this has not yet been reflected as a\nmajor surge in macroeconomic statistics. In other words, the investment\nnarrative sounds grand on paper, but its aggregate realisation has not\nyet shown the explosion promised.<\/p>\n Factory Activity Improving, But Jobs Not Yet Returning in\nForce<\/strong><\/p>\n The Trump administration also highlights the recovery of\nmanufacturing activity as evidence of success.<\/p>\n The US government states that factory activity indicators for\nJanuary, February, and March 2026 show expansion, even reaching the\nhighest levels since August 2022. Industrial production is also said to\nbe at its highest level since 2019, while manufacturing productivity has\nrecorded the largest annual increase in nearly two decades.<\/p>\n Simply put, this signals that the manufacturing sector is indeed\nstarting to improve. However, recovery at the activity level has not yet\nfully been reflected in the labour market.<\/p>\n US Bureau of Labor Statistics data records that jobs in the\nmanufacturing sector have actually continued to decline after Liberation\nDay. From April 2025 to February 2026, the number of manufacturing jobs\ndecreased by around 89,000. This decline indicates that the promised\nindustrial revival has not yet fully been reflected in the job\nmarket.<\/p>\n This becomes an important gap in the government\u2019s victory narrative.\nBecause if the trade war truly brings factories back to life on a large\nscale, then the manufacturing labour market should also start showing\nstronger recovery. In reality, that recovery is not yet clearly\nevident.<\/p>\n Tariffs Have Indeed Added to State Revenue, But Far from\nBombastic Promises<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump has sold tariffs from the start as a new revenue engine for the\nstate. He once claimed that tariffs would bring hundreds of billions or\neven trillions of dollars to the government coffers, while also helping\nto pay off US debt.<\/p>\n In practice, tariffs have indeed increased customs revenue. US\nDepartment of the Treasury data shows that, before the US Supreme Court\nannulled the legal basis for IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, the policy\ngenerated around US$166 billion in tariff payments. Overall, customs\nduties for January-December 2025 reached US$264 billion.<\/p>\n The problem is that these figures remain far from the grand promises\nproclaimed by Trump and his advisors. There is indeed additional revenue\nfrom tariffs, but it is not large enough to approach the claim that this\npolicy could be the main tool to pay off the national debt. Even federal\ndebt continued to rise during that period.<\/p>\n In other words, the trade war has indeed provided additional money to\nthe government, but the results are not as magnificent as the political\nnarrative built from the beginning.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/one-year-on-from-trumps-liberation-day-us-victory-not-fully-realised-1775656329",
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