{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1644923,
        "msgid": "oil-prices-surpass-115-us-dollars-economist-warns-of-indonesias-fiscal-risks-1774918335",
        "date": "2026-03-31 07:07:00",
        "title": "Oil Prices Surpass 115 US Dollars, Economist Warns of Indonesia's Fiscal Risks",
        "author": "Friska Yolandha",
        "source": "REPUBLIKA",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "The ongoing Middle East conflict involving Iran, the US, Israel, and the Houthi group is expected to drive global crude oil prices higher, currently exceeding 115 US dollars per barrel\u2014far above the 70 US dollars assumed in Indonesia's 2026 state budget. This surge is projected to inflate the government's energy subsidy and compensation costs, potentially widening the budget deficit, boosting inflation, and weakening consumer purchasing power. Additionally, the rupiah has already breached 17,002 per US dollar and faces further depreciation, exacerbating pre-existing fiscal vulnerabilities and raising the risk of a currency crisis.",
        "content": "<p>The war in the Middle East that has erupted between Iran and the\nUS-Israel is predicted to be prolonged, following the involvement of the\nHouthi group which threatens to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait. As a\nresult, global crude oil commodity prices are forecasted to surge even\nhigher. Indonesia needs to be vigilant against the various risks and\nimpacts that will arise from this situation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Iran vs Israel+US war will last a long time. We must prepare for\nrising energy prices, especially oil and LPG,\u201d stated economist\nWijayanto Samirin from Paramadina University when contacted by Republika\non Monday (30\/3\/2026).<\/p>\n<p>Global crude oil prices are currently observed to have breached the\n115 US dollars per barrel level. This figure is far above the oil price\nassumption in the 2026 state budget of 70 US dollars per barrel.<\/p>\n<p>With the surge in global crude oil prices, the state\u2019s budgetary\nburden for energy subsidies and compensation will swell. The state\nbudget deficit is inevitably at risk of widening.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe state budget deficit will explode, inflation will rise, and\npeople\u2019s purchasing power will weaken,\u201d he emphasised.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, Wijayanto continued, the rupiah exchange rate\nagainst the US dollar has the potential to weaken further. The rupiah\u2019s\nposition at the close of trading on Monday (30\/3\/2026) has breached the\nRp 17,002 per US dollar level. The Garuda currency is predicted to\ncontinue correcting.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe rupiah has the potential to come under even more pressure. If\nnot careful, Indonesia could face a fiscal crisis that could lead to a\nrupiah exchange rate crisis,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n<p>Pressure on the rupiah, Wijayanto said, is actually more caused by\nthe less solid fiscal situation before the Iran vs US-Israel war broke\nout. However, the ongoing warfare in the Middle East has worsened the\nrupiah\u2019s exchange rate.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/oil-prices-surpass-115-us-dollars-economist-warns-of-indonesias-fiscal-risks-1774918335",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}