Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth\nis projected to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2026, before it is\nexpected to rise to 3.0% in 2027.<\/p>\n
This projection was presented by the Organization for Economic\nCooperation and Development (OECD) in the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim\nReport titled Testing Resilience, which was released last week\n(26\/3\/2026).<\/p>\n
\u201cThe conflict in the Middle East is testing global economic\nresilience. The outlook is shrouded in high uncertainty and reflects the\ninteraction of two opposing forces,\u201d OECD wrote in its report, quoted on\nMonday (30\/3\/2026).<\/p>\n
First, on the positive side, the OECD sees growth supported by strong\nmomentum in technology-related investment and production, lower tariffs\nthan previously assumed, and the continuation of strong results from\n2025.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, on the negative side, the halt of shipments through the\nStrait of Hormuz and the closure and damage to some energy\ninfrastructure have caused a surge in energy prices and disrupted global\nenergy supplies and other key commodities, such as fertilisers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis increases costs, suppresses demand, and adds pressure to\ninflation,\u201d OECD stated.<\/p>\n
Inflation in G20 countries is also expected to rise to 4% in 2026.\nThis condition is triggered by pressure on oil prices. The inflation\nrate will slow again in 2027, with a projection to drop to 2.7%.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, core inflation in advanced G20 countries is expected to\nweaken, from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027.<\/p>\n
In its report, the OECD emphasised that market expectations indicate\na gradual decline in energy prices, an assumption underlying the current\nprojections. However, the OECD warned that prolonged disruptions to\nshipments through the Strait of Hormuz or sustained closures of oil and\ngas facilities could lead to far worse outcomes.<\/p>\n
The OECD also created a simulation in this report exploring a\nscenario where oil and gas prices rise far above the baseline projection\n- about a quarter higher in the first year and remaining high thereafter\n- combined with tighter global financial conditions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn this case, global GDP could be around 0.5% lower in the second\nyear, while consumer prices would be about 0.7 percentage points higher\nin the first year and 0.9 percentage points in the second year,\u201d OECD\nstated.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/oecd-forecasts-global-economy-to-grow-only-2-9-in-2026-due-to-iran-war-effects-1774831845", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }