Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation\nand Development (OECD) has revised downwards Indonesia\u2019s economic growth\nfor 2026 and 2027 amid rising global risks, primarily in the Middle\nEast.<\/p>\n
According to the latest OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report titled\nTesting Resilience, released last week (26 March 2026), Indonesia\u2019s\neconomy is projected to grow by only 4.8% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.\nPreviously, in the December 2025 report, the OECD had estimated\nIndonesia\u2019s economy could grow by 5% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.<\/p>\n
For context, this OECD projection is lower than the macroeconomic\nassumptions in the 2026 State Budget, which stand at 5.4%. It is even\nfurther from Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa\u2019s target of 6% growth\nfor this year.<\/p>\n
The revision is attributed to the ongoing war in the Middle East. Not\nonly Indonesia, but nearly all countries are facing downward revisions\nin growth projections.<\/p>\n
India is projected to grow by only 6.1% in 2026, while China\u2019s\neconomy is expected to slow to 4.4%. Meanwhile, globally, the OECD\nforecasts economic slowdown to 4.8% in 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe conflict in the Middle East is testing global economic\nresilience. The outlook is shrouded in high uncertainty and reflects the\ninteraction of two opposing forces,\u201d the OECD stated in its report,\nquoted on Monday (30 March 2026).<\/p>\n
On the positive side, the OECD sees growth supported by strong\nmomentum in investment and production related to technology, lower\ntariffs than previously assumed, and the continuation of strong results\nfrom 2025.<\/p>\n
On the negative side, the halt in shipments through the Strait of\nHormuz and the closure and damage to some energy infrastructure have\ncaused a surge in energy prices and disrupted global energy and other\nkey commodity supplies, such as fertiliser.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis increases costs, suppresses demand, and adds inflationary\npressure,\u201d the OECD explained.<\/p>\n
However, the OECD also warns that prolonged disruptions to shipments\nthrough the Strait of Hormuz or sustained closures of oil and gas\nfacilities could lead to much worse outcomes.<\/p>\n
The OECD has included simulations in this report exploring a scenario\nwhere oil and gas prices rise far above the baseline projection - about\na quarter higher in the first year and remaining elevated thereafter -\ncombined with tighter global financial conditions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn this case, global GDP could be around 0.5% lower in the second\nyear, while consumer prices would be higher by about 0.7 percentage\npoints in the first year and 0.9 percentage points in the second year,\u201d\nthe OECD stated.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/oecd-cuts-indonesias-economic-forecast-only-4-8-growth-in-2026-1774831844", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }