Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - This week opens with a series of data\nreleases that directly touch on the main pulses of the domestic\ninflation market, trade balance, and US labour indicators.<\/p>\n
The direction of risky asset movements will heavily depend on whether\nprice pressures ease and whether the global economy remains strong\nenough to withstand high interest rates.<\/p>\n
At the same time, high energy prices and global supply chain\ndisruptions keep cost-of-living pressures alive. This situation leads\nmarket participants to hold positions while awaiting certainty from\nincoming data one by one.<\/p>\n
Here is the economic agenda throughout this week.<\/p>\n
Indonesia\u2019s Trade Balance<\/p>\n
The Central Statistics Agency is scheduled to release March trade\nbalance data on Monday (4\/5). In February 2026, the surplus was recorded\nat US$1.28 billion, a sharp drop from US$3.09 billion in the same period\nlast year and below market expectations.<\/p>\n
This movement was triggered by imports growing 10.85% year-on-year to\nUS$20.89 billion, while exports only rose 1.01%. Export growth was\nsupported by fats and vegetable oils as well as electrical machinery,\nwhile oil and gas exports were pressured by a sharp decline in crude\noil.<\/p>\n
If this pattern continues, the surplus margin could remain thin. This\ncondition will affect perceptions of Indonesia\u2019s external strength,\nespecially amid still-high import financing needs.<\/p>\n
Indonesia\u2019s Inflation<\/p>\n
On the same day, April inflation will be the main focus. In March\n2026, annual inflation was recorded at 3.48%, down from 4.76% the\nprevious month and within Bank Indonesia\u2019s target range.<\/p>\n
The slowdown mainly came from the housing and food groups, while some\ncomponents like transportation and restaurants experienced increases.\nCore inflation fell to 2.52%, signalling more controlled price\npressures.<\/p>\n
The latest figures will determine how much room Bank Indonesia has in\nmaintaining rupiah stability without adding pressure from the interest\nrate side.<\/p>\n
US Factory Orders and Industrial Signals<\/p>\n
From the United States, March factory orders data will be released on\nMonday evening Indonesian time. In February, this indicator was stagnant\nafter previously growing 0.4%.<\/p>\n
This condition depicts a manufacturing sector starting to lose\nmomentum. Weakening demand could impact production and investment,\nespecially when financing costs are still high.<\/p>\n
If contraction continues, markets will begin adjusting expectations\nfor US economic resilience in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
Fed Officials\u2019 Speeches<\/p>\n
On the same day, speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be\nwatched to capture the latest policy direction. Previous statements\noften touched on price pressures from energy and global\nuncertainties.<\/p>\n
New comments will provide additional clues regarding the duration of\nhigh interest rates, especially after labour data showed mixed\nresults.<\/p>\n
ISM Services and JOLTS<\/p>\n
Moving into Tuesday (5\/5), two important indicators from the services\nand labour sectors will be released. March ISM Services PMI was at 54,\ndown from 56.1 in February. This decline was triggered by weakening\nbusiness activity and labour absorption.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the price index in the survey actually rose to the\nhighest level since 2022, driven by rising energy costs and logistics\ndisruptions.<\/p>\n
For the labour market, job openings fell to 6.882 million in\nFebruary. The decline occurred across various sectors and regions,\nindicating slowing labour demand.<\/p>\n
The combination of slowing activity and cost pressures will be a key\nfactor in reading future inflation direction.<\/p>\n
US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate<\/p>\n
Towards the end of the week, market focus will turn to the US\nemployment report on Friday (8\/5). In March, the US economy added\n178,000 jobs, well above expectations.<\/p>\n
The increase mainly occurred in the health, construction, and\ntransportation sectors. On the other hand, the federal government sector\nand financial activities recorded declines.<\/p>\n
The unemployment rate was at 4.3%, with a slight decline in labour\nforce participation. The latest data will determine whether the labour\nmarket is still strong enough or starting to lose steam.<\/p>\n
Results that are too strong could keep interest rate pressures high.\nConversely, significant weakening will open room for policy expectation\nadjustments.<\/p>\n
US Consumer Confidence<\/p>\n
The preliminary May consumer sentiment index will also be released on\nthe same day. In April, the index was at 49.8, reflecting still-low\nconfidence.<\/p>\n
Small changes in this indicator often have a big impact on\nconsumption expectations, which is the backbone of the US economy.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s Trade<\/p>\n
Closing the week, China will release April trade data on Saturday\n(9\/5). In March, the trade surplus fell to US$51.13 billion, the lowest\nlevel in more than a year.<\/p>\n
Exports only grew 2.5% due to seasonal factors and a high base from\nlast year. On the other hand, imports surged 27.8% and hit a record\nhigh, driven by needs for raw materials and technology purchases.<\/p>\n
The import surge reflects efforts to secure supplies amid global\ndisruptions. However, slowing exports remain an important note for\nglobal demand prospects.<\/p>\n
The latest release will be a week-ending determinant of sentiment\ndirection, especially for commodity markets and countries with high\nexport dependence.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/note-these-sentiments-that-could-drive-the-market-next-week-1777824581", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }