No mere empty threat<\/p>\n
As was widely predicted, President Abdurrahman Wahid on Friday
\nbacked down on his threat to declare a state of emergency,
\nsomething that he has been boasting to the public for the past
\nweek or so. As zany as the threat may have seemed, however, it
\nwould have been wrong for anyone to take it lightly.<\/p>\n
The President does have the power to impose a state of
\nemergency, and he had signaled on several occasions before Friday
\nthat he would use, or rather abuse, this constitutional
\nprerogative as part of his campaign to cling to power.<\/p>\n
The only things that stood in his way were the National Police
\nand the Military, and some senior members of his Cabinet. By all
\ncalculations, without the support of any one of these three
\nelements, it would have been impossible for the President to
\nimpose a state of emergency, whether civil or military.<\/p>\n
The President needs the National Police or the Indonesian
\nMilitary to implement the draconian measures that will be at his
\ndisposal the moment he imposes a state of emergency. They include
\narresting his political foes, imposing a news blackout, and
\ndissolving the House of Representatives and the People's
\nConsultative Assembly (MPR).<\/p>\n
The President may be able to ignore Vice President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri, whose Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
\nPerjuangan) is at the forefront of the campaign to remove him.
\nBut he could hardly expect to go ahead with a state of emergency
\nplan without the full support of his top Cabinet officials,
\nincluding in particular chief political minister Agum Gumelar.<\/p>\n
If this had been a poker game, it was Agum, the police and the
\nmilitary who had called the President's bluff. His political
\nrivals in the People's Consultative Assembly had made contingency
\nplans to bring forward the special session to initiate his
\nimpeachment process if he had made good on his threat.<\/p>\n
As long as things remain as they are, we can discount the
\nPresident's latest threat to impose a state of emergency, now
\nslated for July 31, or one day before the special session is due
\nto start. That is, unless the President is so desperate that he
\ngoes ahead with his plan without even the basic support.<\/p>\n
There is no doubt that the lack of political support was the
\ncrucial factor that forced the President to back down on his
\nthreat. The search for a compromise, as desirable as it may seem,
\nis now a remote possibility. His argument to postpone the state
\nof emergency to July 31 was simply a pretext that he used in
\norder to buy more time for himself, hoping that by then he would
\nhave the bare minimum support needed to carry out his plan.<\/p>\n
There is also no doubt that his decision to hastily install
\nComr. Gen. Chaeruddin Ismail as the caretaker chief of the
\nNational Police on Friday was part and parcel of his political
\nsurvival game plan. He needs to take control of the National
\nPolice but had thus far been denied by the present defiant chief,
\nGen. Surojo Bimantoro, who has refused to stand down.<\/p>\n
In his act of desperation, the President installed Chaeruddin
\nwithout the consent of the House of Representatives, which by
\nlaw, is a prerequisite. This unconstitutional move has only made
\nthe case for his impeachment at the MPR that much stronger, and
\npossibly even that much sooner.<\/p>\n
It remains to be seen how far Chaeruddin is prepared to go
\nalong with the President's game plan. We certainly hope that he
\nwill be strong enough to resist the President from turning the
\npolice force into his personal tool of repression.<\/p>\n
Without the support of the police, the military and senior
\nCabinet members, the threat of a state of emergency has proven to
\nbe a blunt weapon of intimidation. But as empty as the
\nPresident's threats may have been, they have not been without
\ncosts to the country. This turn of events has further unsettled
\nthe nation already deeply mired in crisis.<\/p>\n
It is also clear now that the President is quickly running out
\nof time and options in staving off the threat of an MPR
\nimpeachment. With a political compromise now a remote
\npossibility, there are virtually two choices left for the
\nPresident: Make a graceful exit now or fight off an impeachment
\nprocess in the MPR that he is almost certain to lose.<\/p>\n
As the rest of the nation waits for this political drama to
\nunfold in the coming days, the top Cabinet members of the
\nPresident who had opposed his state of emergency plan should
\nstart thinking about distancing themselves from their chief
\nexecutive. Who knows, they could help him see the light and come
\nto the right decision that is best for himself and for the
\nnation.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/no-mere-empty-threat-1447893297",
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