New stars in RI political skies<\/p>\n
Leo Suryadinata, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
Prior to this year's election in Indonesia, observers
\ngenerally agreed that the PDI-P led by President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri, and Golkar, the ruling party during president
\nSoeharto's time, would remain as the top two parties, with most
\npredicting that Golkar would have a slight lead. Medium-rank
\nparties, especially those based on Islam, would survive but
\nIslamic parties would not emerge as the top winners.<\/p>\n
The election's interim results appear to support these general
\npredictions. But there are several surprises: The PDI-P, or
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, votes have declined
\nsignificantly, while Golkar's have increased, but not by as much
\nas expected.<\/p>\n
Moreover, except for the National Awakening Party (PKB) led by
\nformer president Abdurrahman Wahid, medium-rank parties such as
\nthe National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, the United
\nDevelopment Party (PPP) led by Hamzah Haz, and the Crescent Star
\nParty (PBB) led by Yusril Ihza Mahendra, performed rather badly.<\/p>\n
Where did their votes go?<\/p>\n
The reasons are complex. Nevertheless, two major factors can
\nbe identified: Voter disillusionment with the better established
\nparties and the emergence of many new rival parties.<\/p>\n
The Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Prosperous Justice Party or
\nPKS) and Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party or PD) combined took
\n14.4 percent of the votes.<\/p>\n
The PD is closely linked to retired general Susilo Bambang
\nYudhoyono, coordinating minister of security during both the
\nAbdurrahman and Megawati Cabinets. Many secularists and
\nnationalists consider Bambang a potential future leader. In 1999,
\nnationalists in the National Assembly, or MPR, after the removal
\nof Abdurrahman and the appointment of Megawati to succeed him as
\npresident, proposed Bambang as vice-president, but he came in
\nthird after Hamzah and Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, these nationalists did not give up; they saw the
\nfuture in this former military general. A group of intellectuals
\n(including many university professors) and professionals decided
\nto establish a party, the PD, for Bambang. They chose his
\nbirthday to declare the date of the party's establishment. The
\nchairman of the PD is a university professor and head of the
\ndepartment of anthropology at the University of Indonesia, Subur
\nBudhisanthoso. Within a short period of time, the party was able
\nto establish branches in all major provinces.<\/p>\n
The PD is a secular party and uses the national ideology of
\nPancasila, or Five Principles, as its political ideology. It
\nfavors a unitary state of Indonesia and advocates cultural
\npluralism. It also preaches democracy and advocates popular
\npolitical participation and a professional army. It wants to
\ncombat corruption and nepotism and is against violence. In post-
\nSoeharto Indonesia, where corruption and violence have been
\nrampant, the emergence of the PD is a breath of fresh air and has
\nattracted many urban voters.<\/p>\n
Only two years old, the PD wasn't taken seriously by observers
\nat first. However, it received a stimulus when Megawati refused
\nto let Bambang, her then coordinating security minister, attend a
\nCabinet meeting and subsequently dismissed him.<\/p>\n
This proved a blessing in disguise for the PD, which gained a
\nlot of sympathy votes in this election.<\/p>\n
The Chinese voter was another factor. In 1999, ethnic Chinese
\ntended to vote for the PDI-P. This time, disillusioned with the
\nPDI-P and Megawati's leadership, they shifted their support to
\nother parties. From my observation, the PD, or more specifically,
\nBambang, was the choice of many Chinese voters in Java.<\/p>\n
Another 'new star' of this election, the PKS, is not really
\nnew. In the 1999 election, it was called Partai Keadilan (PK) and
\nwon 1.4 percent of the votes. It was the seventh largest party
\nbut failed to pass the electoral threshold of 2 percent. So in
\nthis election, it changed its name to Partai Keadilan Sejahtera.<\/p>\n
Unlike the PD, which is a secular party, PKS is an Islamic
\nparty, openly stating that it is a Partai Da'wah, or a party
\nwhich aims to spread the gospel of Islam. But it also states in
\nits program that it strives to build an Indonesian society in
\naccordance with the teaching of Allah 'within the context of the
\nUnitary State of Indonesia which is based on Pancasila'.<\/p>\n
A well-known Indonesian commentator has called this group
\n'puritan Islamic idealists resurrected from the old days'.<\/p>\n
The new leader of the party, Hidayat Nur Wahid, graduated from
\na local Islamic institution and studied in Saudi Arabia. He has
\nbeen teaching in Islamic colleges in Indonesia since returning in
\n1992.<\/p>\n
The predecessor of the PKS, the PK, was active on college
\ncampuses in the post-Soeharto years and won many followers. Its
\nsupport came from the educated Islamic community not only in Java
\nbut also in the outer islands. It competed with other Islamic
\nparties but, because of its limited circle, it was unable to
\nsecure many votes.<\/p>\n
However, under the new leadership, the PKS has begun to extend
\nits wing to poor Muslims, and is eclipsing Islamic parties such
\nas PAN and PBB. This is evidenced by the decline in these
\nparties' votes.<\/p>\n
Overall, however, it is too early to say whether these new
\nparties will be parties of the future. The PD was formed for the
\nsupport of Bambang, while the PKS is a puritan idealist party and
\ndoes not yet have a major leader.<\/p>\n
What can be said is that their rise will pose a challenge to
\nthe established parties, at least during the July presidential
\nelection. Bambang will be a candidate while the PKS will form an
\nalliance with other parties to nominate their own presidential
\ncandidate. Both parties, therefore, will have a role as king-
\nmakers, if nothing else.<\/p>\n
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute of
\nSoutheast Asian Studies.<\/p>",
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