{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1637716,
        "msgid": "new-crisis-begins-from-energy-to-food-the-world-enters-danger-zone-1774583478",
        "date": "2026-03-27 09:55:30",
        "title": "New Crisis Begins: From Energy to Food, the World Enters Danger Zone",
        "author": "",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Trade",
        "summary": "Escalating conflict in Iran is disrupting global fertiliser trade, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz, causing sharp price surges in key commodities like urea and ammonia, which threaten food security worldwide. With about a third of global fertiliser shipments passing through this route now halted, production in major Middle Eastern exporters is stalled, exacerbating supply shortages at a critical planting season for northern hemisphere farmers and harvest time in the south. Developing nations like India and East Africa face heightened vulnerability due to import reliance, potentially leading to reduced crop yields and food inflation, while even advanced economies such as the US grapple with rising agricultural costs.",
        "content": "<p>Escalation of the Iran conflict is now spreading to commodities\nrarely highlighted in broader markets: fertiliser. Disruptions in the\nStrait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route, are hindering large-scale\ndistribution of fertiliser products, triggering price spikes and\nconcerns over global food resilience. Approximately one-third of global\nfertiliser trade by sea passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This route\nis now experiencing severe disruptions since the conflict intensified,\nwith ship traffic nearly halted and several incidents of attacks on\nvessels in the area. These obstacles are directly impeding export flows\nfrom the Middle East region, which has long been the world\u2019s centre for\nnitrogen fertiliser production. Citing CNBC International, prices are\nreacting swiftly. Urea granular FOB in Egypt, the main benchmark for the\nnitrogen fertiliser market, has surged to around US$700 per metric\ntonne, up from US$400-490 before the war. Oxford Economics notes that\nurea prices have risen about 50% since the conflict began, while ammonia\nhas increased around 20%. Rises are also occurring in potash and\nsulphur, extending pressure across the entire fertiliser supply chain.\nThe global supply structure is exacerbating the situation. About 30% of\ncurrent fertiliser export supplies cannot reach markets, including from\nSaudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iran. Iran itself plays a key role in\nglobal nitrogen fertiliser exports, with significant contributions to\nworld urea trade. When distribution routes are blocked, the missing\nsupply is immediately felt in international markets. Threatening the\nPlanting Season The impacts are beginning to affect the agricultural\nsector at a crucial time. Farmers in the northern hemisphere are\nentering the planting season, while those in the south are in the\nharvest phase. Demand for nitrogen fertiliser spikes sharply during this\nperiod. Urea is widely used for major commodities like maize, wheat, and\nvarious horticultural crops. Technically, nitrogen plays an\nirreplaceable role in the annual planting cycle. Unlike potash or\nphosphate, whose use can sometimes be deferred within a season, nitrogen\nmust be available every year. When distribution is disrupted, the direct\nlink between fertiliser application and harvest yields is disturbed. A\ndecline in supply today opens risks of reduced productivity in the\ncoming months. This pressure is seen as broader than the 2022\nRussia-Ukraine crisis. At that time, disruptions mainly affected potash.\nNow, they target nitrogen\u2014the core component in plant growth. Moreover,\nthe impacts span more producer countries at once, from Iran to other\nGulf states. The sulphur market is worsening the situation. Nearly 50%\nof global sulphur trade comes from the same region. Before the conflict,\nthe sulphur market was already tight, with prices peaking earlier this\nyear. Disruptions in production and exports are further constricting\nsupply, opening room for further price increases. Fertiliser production\nis also disrupted upstream. Limited storage for unsent products is\nforcing some facilities to halt operations. QatarEnergy has even stopped\nurea production after halting LNG production. On the other hand, China\nis beginning to restrict fertiliser exports to safeguard domestic\nsupply, reducing global supply alternatives. Although global food stocks\nare entering 2026 in relatively high condition, this buffer is only\ntemporary. A mere 5% drop in harvest yields would be enough to drive\nfood inflation. Developing countries are the most vulnerable due to\nlimited purchasing power against rising fertiliser and food prices.\nIndia and East Africa are noted to have high exposure. Reliance on\nfertiliser and gas imports makes agricultural production costs in these\nregions more sensitive to price volatility. In high-price conditions,\naccess to fertiliser could become limited, forcing farmers to reduce\nusage and lower yields. The impacts also extend to advanced countries.\nThe United States, despite domestic production, still imports about a\nthird of its fertiliser needs. Global price rises directly pressure\nfarmers\u2019 production costs. Concerns are emerging regarding uneven\ndistribution or the need to ration fertiliser use. Several US\nagricultural groups have called for government intervention to mitigate\ncost pressures. They assess that energy and fertiliser price surges amid\nthe planting season create dual pressures on the agricultural sector.\nLogistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are accelerating the\ntransmission of this pressure to food prices.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/new-crisis-begins-from-energy-to-food-the-world-enters-danger-zone-1774583478",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}