New common ground for RI-Australia ties?<\/p>\n
By Siswo Pramono<\/p>\n
CANBERRA (JP): Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid and
\nAustralian Prime Minister John Howard have agreed on a new common
\nground for Indonesian-Australian relations. Leaders and
\ngovernments might change, but the two countries should quickly
\nreengage. Australia fully supports Indonesia's territorial
\nintegrity, while Indonesia has promised to prosecute human rights
\noffensives in East Timor before and after the ballot in the
\nterritory. Both countries support a West Pacific forum of dialog,
\nand they consider regular visits by their respective leaders
\nimportant.<\/p>\n
A week before President Abdurrahman arrived in Canberra, some
\npessimistic view were aired by many Australian media. How could
\nthe embattled President implement the results of the visit since
\nhis days were numbered? The mainstream opinion in Australia is
\nthat Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will replace
\nAbdurrahman in August.<\/p>\n
During Soeharto's era, Abdurrahman was well known in Australia
\nas the outspoken, internationally recognized activist of human
\nrights and democracy. He visited Australia about 10 times before
\nbecoming president. Thus, for many Australians, he is first a
\ndemocrat and second Indonesia's first freely elected president.<\/p>\n
If anything, the media's positive reaction to his visit
\nreflects an appreciation for his personality.<\/p>\n
The unknown Megawati, on the other hand, has caused anxiety
\namong Australians. The speculation is that the prospective
\nMegawati government would be very nationalistic, \"surrounded by
\nthe military and the reassembled forces of Soeharto's New Order\"
\n(The Australian, June 27). This will not do any good for
\nAustralian-Indonesian relations.<\/p>\n
It is not fair to judge an Indonesian leader on mere
\nspeculation. Many Australians might have ignored the fact that it
\nwas Megawati who experienced hardship under the previous military
\nregime. She personally considers democratic control of the
\nmilitary of primary importance.<\/p>\n
Since neighboring countries are nervously watching, it is
\nimportant for Megawati to introduce her foreign policy platform.
\nAnd if Megawati is to replace Abdurrahman, it would be wise for
\nher to consider Australia the first country to visit.<\/p>\n
Australia seems to be realistic in reading the dynamics of
\nIndonesian politics. Regardless of who is president, Australia
\nknows only too well that for a considerable time the military
\nwill remain the major political force in Indonesia.<\/p>\n
At present, argued Allan Behm, a former head of the
\ninternational and strategic division of the Australian Department
\nof Defense, the Indonesian Military (TNI) is the only functioning
\nnational institution in Indonesia.<\/p>\n
It would be unrealistic to expect an abrupt demilitarization
\nof the Indonesian political system in which the military has
\nplayed a pivotal role since the birth of the republic.
\nNonetheless, many Australians believe that if military men like
\nSusilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Agus Widjojo had more central roles
\nto play, the military's withdrawal from politics could be
\nexpedited.<\/p>\n
Nationalism, alongside growing ethnic nationalism, is also
\nanother political fact that Australia must accept. Megawati's
\nIndonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan)
\nrepresents the secular nationalists. Abdurrahman's Nahdlatul
\nUlama (NU) represents the Islamic nationalists. Thus, PDI
\nPerjuangan and NU represent the nationalistic forces of the
\ngrassroots level. Nationalistic forces are also strongly
\nrepresented in the House of Representatives and the People's
\nConsultative Assembly.<\/p>\n
Australia is aware that at least until 2004, strained
\nrelations between a weak government and the strong nationalistic
\nHouse and Assembly will mark Indonesian politics. Against this
\nbackdrop, Australia is also aware that no Indonesian president
\nwill dare violate the Assembly decrees mandating him or her to
\ndefend the unity and integrity of Indonesia.<\/p>\n
Realpolitik dictated that Australia's John Howard reassure
\nAbdurrahman that Australia supports Indonesia's sovereignty and
\nterritorial integrity within its current borders. Howard has
\nurged Indonesia to proceed with special autonomy as the best
\nsolution for West Papua and Aceh problems. This Australian stance
\nincites frustration and anger among the West Papuan activists
\nresiding in Australia.<\/p>\n
The collapse of the Indonesian-Australian security agreement
\nin 1999 has accentuated Australian anxiety about what will happen
\nin Indonesia after the Assembly's special session on Aug. 1.
\nAndrew Thomson, head of the parliamentary committee on
\ninternational treaties, is worried about the potential for a
\npower vacuum in Jakarta (The Sydney Morning Herald, June 25).
\nThe worst scenario for Australia is the emergence of an unknown
\nforce, either fundamentalist or narrow-minded nationalist, that
\nwill lead Indonesia to another confrontation with Australia.<\/p>\n
East Timor and West Papua have been and will always be on the
\nAustralian political agenda. Any Australian leader, either John
\nHoward or his prospective successor, Kim Beazley, will be under
\ndomestic pressure to deal with human rights issues in those two
\nterritories. Both will remain explosive issues that can cause
\nanother crash in the fragile bilateral relations.<\/p>\n
This has led Australia to another realpolitik situation by
\nsupporting Abdurrahman's West Pacific Forum. Issues concerning
\nEast Timor and West Papua can be discussed in this forum, which
\nwould include Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea
\nand other Pacific island states.<\/p>\n
But the West Pacific Forum could be problematic for Indonesia.
\nIf Indonesia failed to take the lead in the forum it is likely
\nthat Australia would assume this role. Indonesia's efforts to
\nembrace the Melanesian groups and bring them closer to Indonesia
\nwould then prove ineffective. Worse, if Indonesia failed to bring
\njustice to East Timor and West Papua and settle allegations of
\nhuman rights violations, the forum could turn into a trial for
\nIndonesia itself.<\/p>\n
One can expect democratization in Indonesia will gradually
\nreduce the roles of the military and narrow-minded nationalists.
\nBut for the time being, the military and these \"nationalists\"
\nremain the main obstacles to the success of a human rights
\ntribunal for East Timor.<\/p>\n
Whether or not Indonesia gets a new government in August, the
\nimplementation of this new common ground into concrete policy
\nwill not be easy. But it is in the best interest of Indonesia to
\nfollow up on this.<\/p>\n
In the coming years this new common ground will be put to the
\ntest, as the new reality of the bilateral relations becomes more
\napparent. Indonesia is now a more democratic state and Australia
\nis more assertive. But Indonesia, for quite some time, will be on
\nthe weak side of the bilateral relations.<\/p>\n
With so many residual problems in sight, this imbalance must
\nbe carefully managed. Otherwise, the two countries could again
\nbecome entrapped in another up and down roller-coaster
\nrelationship.<\/p>\n
The writer is a postgraduate student of political science at
\nthe Australian National University in Canberra and an official at
\nthe Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The above views are
\npersonal.<\/p>",
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