Neighboring countries concerned over developments in Indonesia<\/p>\n
Hanys Salmi, Kuala Lumpur<\/p>\n
The current social-political developments in our giant
\nneighbor Indonesia have become the focus of attention in the
\nSoutheast Asian region. There are at least three areas of concern
\non which strategic thinkers and policy makers are training their
\npolitical telescopes -- Indonesia's July 5 presidential election,
\nthe possible spill-over of its social and economic problems, and
\nthe country's dubious stance on the international fight against
\nterrorism.<\/p>\n
On the issue of the Indonesian presidential election, the main
\nworry is about the possibility of a military dictatorship
\nemerging and masquerading as a democracy. Such concern is not
\nwithout logical foundations. The fact is, although millions of
\nIndonesians are struggling to create civilian supremacy in their
\nfledgling democracy, the country's political parties have
\nintentionally nominated three retired generals to contest the
\nelection -- former Military (TNI) commander Wiranto, former chief
\nof the TNI's territorial staff (Kaster) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,
\nwho used to oversee nine regional military commands (Kodam), and
\nformer commander of the Sulawesi military region Agum Gumelar.<\/p>\n
Though the three have served in Cabinet in civilian capacities
\ntheir former subordinates are still on active duty in the
\nmilitary. These connections could allow any of them to revive the
\ndirty politics of the country's former tyrant Soeharto.<\/p>\n
However, Wiranto and Yudhoyono have tried to convince the
\nSoutheast Asian region of their honest intentions in promoting
\ndemocracy in Indonesia. Both were invited separately to Singapore
\nrecently to address policy makers and business strategists who
\nare now wondering whether they will match their words with deeds
\nif they are elected.<\/p>\n
At the center of their speeches was an apparent determination
\nto promote the rule of law, democracy and human rights while
\npulling the country out of its socio-economic crisis. In a five
\nyear-term of office, by any logical calculation, none of them
\nwould be able to solve all the country's problems, even with
\nmagic spells. Indonesia's domestic problems are so huge that
\nperhaps the country needs 20 years to put its house in order and
\nturn itself into a stabilizing influence in the region.<\/p>\n
The next president's first priority must be improving national
\nstability and securing territorial integrity against the
\nimplementation of regional autonomy that, if not well-checked,
\ncould eventually become a source of disintegration.<\/p>\n
In order to balance autonomy with the need to keep the nation
\nintact, there are very big temptations for the next Indonesian
\npresident to pursue a military approach, simply because the
\narchipelago with more than 17,000 islands inhabited by over 220
\nmillion people from various religious and ethnic backgrounds
\ncannot be easily held intact with a soft civilian approach.<\/p>\n
Regional analysts doubt that the Indonesian reform movement
\nwill make much progress in the next five years. The most likely
\noutcome is that the current pace of change will be maintained,
\nbut after some time Indonesians may well become cynical or bored
\nwith reform and concentrate on their personal and familial
\neconomic wellbeing. This could endanger the future of the
\nnation's democracy and could encourage the return of military
\npolitics, especially if the civilian forces remain split as they
\nare today.<\/p>\n
Another focus of attention is on Indonesia's social and
\neconomic maladies. This is a noisy country where political
\nleaders talk too much and act too little. Each one of them can
\nspend hours talking about economic recovery to satisfy their
\naudiences, and do only that. When the monetary crisis hit the
\nregion in July 1997 and grew worse the next year, virtually all
\nthe members of ASEAN were seriously affected. And Indonesia is
\nthe only ASEAN member still unable to pull itself away from the
\nimpact of the crisis.<\/p>\n
One of the reasons for this is its political reluctance to
\nstrengthen the legal system, which makes it hard for honest
\ngovernment leaders to take stern measures against well-connected
\ndebtors and \"law-proof\" corrupters.<\/p>\n
Up to 1.2 million of the workforce have now been employed in
\nMalaysia and almost twice the number are employed in Arab and
\nother Asian countries. But the major bulk of the disgruntled
\njobless people are inside Indonesia doing whatever they can to
\nmake ends meet. This is a dangerous political time bomb that may
\nexplode in the years ahead if no serious action is taken to
\ndefuse it. Of the 150 million eligible voters, 40 million are
\njobless while the country's official statistics show that 37
\nmillion people are living in abject poverty.<\/p>\n
For countries like Malaysia and Singapore, the main worry is
\nif this time bomb should explode and spill over in the form of an
\nuncontrolled outflow of illegal workers and other types of social
\nrefugees in which case the region's stability could be seriously
\naffected. One way to prevent this from happening is perhaps for
\nthe Malaysian and Singaporean governments to pay more attention
\nto Indonesia's domestic issues and increase bilateral assistance
\nfor Indonesia's labor-intensive sectors.<\/p>\n
The third topic of interest among regional strategic thinkers
\nand policy makers is Indonesia's bizarre stance on the
\ninternational fight against terrorism. The country is a good
\nplace for extremists, fundamentalists and perhaps even terrorists
\nto take sanctuary and partake in activities that elsewhere would
\nbe considered subversive.<\/p>\n
Since May 1998 when the country began its ambitious reform
\nprocess, this particular area has been the most difficult to deal
\nwith. Government leaders simply have no concept about how to
\nhandle such troublemakers, although the culprits represent only a
\ntiny portion of society and their claims of faith are not
\nsupported by their countrymen of the same religion. This
\nsituation is a puzzle to government leaders, business people and
\nanalysts in many countries.<\/p>\n
Considering all these developments, analysts are wondering if
\nIndonesia will remain stable in the years ahead or whether it
\nwould reverse backwards and become a source of regional
\ninstability. The future depends of the actions of the political
\nleaders.<\/p>\n
The writer is a researcher on Indonesian issues for a Kuala
\nLumpur-based company. He can be reached at
\nhanyssalmi@malaysia.com<\/p>",
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