Myanmar's political dialogue stalled yet<\/p>\n
Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok<\/p>\n
The war in Iraq has had a great dampening effect on the future
\nprospects of the reconciliation process in Burma. The Burmese
\njunta leaders know full well that world attention is no longer
\nfocused on their ongoing suppression of the Burmese people.<\/p>\n
The much-heralded release of opposition party leader Aung San
\nSuu Kyi last May has remained only a gesture. The regime is still
\nreluctant to genuinely start the much-awaited political dialogue
\nto proceed towards power-sharing and building democratic
\ninstitutions.<\/p>\n
Burma is also facing an economic malaise of its own making.
\nThe fallout of its banking crisis in recent weeks will have far-
\nreaching ramifications on its poorly managed financial markets
\nand the economy in general.<\/p>\n
In such a dire situation, the dialogue process has now become
\nthe regime's most efficient diplomatic instrument to increase
\ninternational support and recognition. Apart from delaying
\nfurther sanctions and weakening support of the opposition, the
\njunta aims to sideline democracy and strengthen its grip on the
\nlives of the Burmese people.<\/p>\n
The latest incident encountered by the UN Special Rapporteur
\nfor Human Rights Paulo Sergio Pinheiro pointed to Burma's
\nulterior motives in international engagement. Pinheiro cut short
\nhis visit to Rangoon last week after finding a hidden microphone
\ninside the room he used to interview political prisoners. Later
\nhe told reporters in Bangkok he was frustrated by the slow
\nprogress of both the reconciliation dialogue and the release of
\npolitical prisoners.<\/p>\n
The UN has been pressuring the Burmese regime to set free more
\nprisoners to show its seriousness in the dialogue process. So
\nfar, the regime has released around 600 political prisoners.
\nNobody knows the exact numbers, but Bangkok-based diplomats said
\nthat at least 500-600 were still in prison. Given the
\ncircumstances now, the reconciliation process will run according
\nto the regime's timetable and at its own choosing.<\/p>\n
This tactic has served the junta leaders well in engaging the
\nworld over the past three years. On the surface, they have
\ndisplayed a willingness to talk with the opposition in order to
\nconfuse international opinion about their goodwill and to soften
\ndemands for tough measures against the Burmese regime. That
\nexplains why the international community cannot agree on measures
\nto isolate and punish the regime.<\/p>\n
Within Burma, the junta leaders have choreographed their moves
\nso precisely that the reconciliation process has been used as an
\nalibi to weaken the opposition party. While Suu Kyi is free to
\ntravel, the junta has instigated incidents to mar her visits.<\/p>\n
Now, returning diplomats -- who have access to both regime and
\nopposition leaders -- talk more about the regime's need for more
\nhumanitarian assistance to alleviate the HIV\/Aids epidemic,
\nignoring the opposition's eagerness to begin dialogue. Suu Kyi
\nhas clearly stated she is ready to enter the dialogue without any
\nconditions. But the junta leaders continue to dodge the talks and
\nignore her appeals. Indeed, the regime has continued to enjoy
\nthis win-win situation. As long the status quo persists, nobody
\nwill pay much attention anyway.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said last week that he
\nwished he could seize Muang Yuon, the town inside Burma across
\nthe Thai border controlled by the Wa army. Muang Yuon has been
\nused as a base for manufacturing and transporting amphetamine
\npills, or ya ba.<\/p>\n
Obviously, like Pinheiro, Thaksin has been hamstrung by slow
\nprogress on the anti-drug effort pledged by the Burmese leaders.<\/p>\n
Despite much hullabaloo over the past two years, Thaksin has
\nnot succeeded in his Burmese policy. His willingness to comply
\nwith the regime's requests has become routine, while issues
\naffecting Thai-Burmese security have remained unchanged, not to
\nmention unresolved. The removal of Thai generals responsible for
\nfirm and tough Burmese policies and the amputation of Task Force
\n399 have weakened the Thai defense capacity along the border as
\nnever before.<\/p>\n
One disturbing trend, according to a Thai military
\nintelligence source, is the dramatic improvement of Burmese
\nmilitary capability over the past two years. Despite financial
\nwoes, money from the cross-border trade and the Yadana gas
\npipeline has increased the Burmese regime's purchasing power for
\nnew weapons and new technology. Security concerns remain as
\nalways at the top of Burma's list of priorities, while the
\nThaksin government naively believes the economic incentives it
\noffers will subsequently alter the regime's perceptions.<\/p>\n
As long as Thailand continues its current Burmese policy, the
\nreconciliation process in Burma will suffer. The Thaksin
\ngovernment has single-handedly transformed this endeavor, once
\nfully backed by the international community, into a bilateral
\nburden. No wonder the junta leaders keep demanding that Thaksin
\ndo more, especially security measures at the Thai-Burmese border
\nthrough the removal of ethnic groups. Recently Thaksin has even
\nmade an overture to be a mediator between the regime and the
\nethnic groups.<\/p>\n
Burma's increased intransigence is the result of the junta
\nleaders' illusion that they can get away scot-free with thwarting
\nthe free will of the Burmese people. As a willing accomplice, the
\nThaksin government is being used to bear the responsibility for
\nthe lack of progress in the dialogue process. A case in point is
\nthat the regime repeatedly uses border insecurity and ethnic
\nproblems as a pretext to delay political dialogue with the
\nopposition.<\/p>\n
Unless Thailand changes its present course, the country will
\nbe further sucked into the regime's sleight-of-hand games.<\/p>",
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