Myanmar casts shadow over ASEAN, group still global player<\/p>\n
Roberto Coloma, Agence France-Presse\/Singapore<\/p>\n
The Myanmar issue is threatening to damage ASEAN's international
\nstanding but the group remains an indispensable player in
\npromoting regional cooperation and stability, diplomats and
\nanalysts say.<\/p>\n
Foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian
\nNations (ASEAN) will gather in the Laotian capital Vientiane next
\nweek for an annual meeting whose traditional highlight is the
\nASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on security.<\/p>\n
The forum is the only annual meeting in which Asian security
\nissues are discussed at the highest diplomatic levels.<\/p>\n
But military-ruled Myanmar's imminent turn to lead the group
\nin 2006 is causing problems ahead of the Laos meeting and
\nthreatens to cause further repercussions.<\/p>\n
If Myanmar takes over the ASEAN chairmanship from Malaysia in
\n2006 under an alphabetical rotation system, the United States and
\nEuropean Union (EU) are likely to boycott key meetings with the
\ngrouping.<\/p>\n
In what is seen as an indication of things possibly to come,
\nU.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, citing scheduling
\nconflicts, will skip the ASEAN Regional Forum, sending her deputy
\nRobert Zoellick instead.<\/p>\n
"This is something unusual but regardless, the ASEAN dialog
\nprocess will move forward. (Rice's absence) will not get in the
\nway of dialog at the ARF," Indonesian foreign ministry spokesman
\nMarty Natalegawa said on Friday.<\/p>\n
Some ASEAN members cringe at the thought of Myanmar presiding
\nover the group in 2006, but there is no precedent for forcing it
\nto give up its turn.<\/p>\n
This leaves voluntary relinquishment as the only face-saving
\nway out.<\/p>\n
"Myanmar has told us, and Myanmar has told other countries in
\nSoutheast Asia, that it will not be selfish and that it will take
\ninto account the interests of ASEAN as a whole," said Singapore's
\nForeign Minister George Yeo.<\/p>\n
The other countries "took that to mean that Myanmar might
\nwithdraw on its own from assuming the chair," he told foreign
\ncorrespondents last month.<\/p>\n
But such a move -- which could take place in Laos next week
\n-- might hurt the organization's efforts to promote democratic
\nreform in Myanmar, ASEAN's secretary-general Ong Ken Yong warned.<\/p>\n
"How are we going to leverage for the early release of Aung
\nSan Suu Kyi and whatever things we want in Myanmar?" Ong said in
\na recent interview with AFP, referring to Myanmar's opposition
\nleader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate who has been under house
\narrest for most of the last 15 years.<\/p>\n
Founded in 1967 by anti-communist nations at the height of the
\nVietnam War, ASEAN has since embraced Vietnam itself. Its other
\nmembers are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
\nthe Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.<\/p>\n
All 10 countries have a collective population of half a
\nbillion people moving toward a regional free trade zone.<\/p>\n
Some ASEAN members now say it was premature to induct Myanmar
\nas a member in 1997.<\/p>\n
But American business consultant Ernest Bower, the former head
\nof the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council, said "it is too easy to look
\nback and say admitting Myanmar into ASEAN was a mistake".<\/p>\n
If Myanmar did reform, ASEAN would have been seen as
\n"prescient" and Malaysia's former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad
\nwould have become "a hero" for strongly backing Myanmar's entry,
\nhe told AFP.<\/p>\n
"Things did not go that way, and they have gone bad
\ninternally, and Myanmar is stuck politically," Bower said.<\/p>\n
"However, there are some in ASEAN who argue that admitting
\nMyanmar was still the right thing to do, because it helped
\nmitigate what could have been worse developments inside Myanmar,"
\nhe said.<\/p>\n
Bower said Myanmar could have moved closer to China and the
\nflow of drugs and refugees across borders could have worsened "if
\nMyanmar remained an isolated rogue state".<\/p>\n
The association's former secretary-general Rodolfo Severino
\ntold AFP "the only thing worse than having Myanmar inside ASEAN
\nis to have it outside ASEAN".<\/p>\n
"There were strong strategic reasons for accepting -- indeed,
\ninviting -- Myanmar into ASEAN. This does not mean that ASEAN
\ncountries cannot encourage and prod Myanmar into improving the
\nsituation inside the country and its relations with its
\nneighbors."<\/p>\n
In Laos, foreign ministers will lay the groundwork for the
\ninaugural East Asia Summit in Malaysia in December.<\/p>\n
The Malaysia meet will be the third international summit
\nconstructed around ASEAN after the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) and
\nthe Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group, including the
\nUnited States, Canada and Latin America, further cementing
\nASEAN's central role in regional cooperation.<\/p>\n
It will bring together all ASEAN members, traditional partners
\nChina, Japan and South Korea and -- if they sign a key treaty -
\nIndia, Australia and New Zealand as well.<\/p>\n
"The East Asia Summit revolves around ASEAN," said Severino,
\nwho also stressed that the group handles the Myanmar issue
\nseparately from its relations with dialog partners.<\/p>\n
Bower said that with the new summit, ASEAN "retains, at least
\nfor another few years, its role as the foundation of East Asian
\neconomic regionalism" but must speed up its own integration to
\nstay competitive against emerging giants China and India.<\/p>",
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