Mutiny causes fall in RP stocks, currency<\/p>\n
Martin Abbugao, Agence France-Presse, Manila<\/p>\n
Investor confidence in Philippines took a hit on Monday in
\nresponse to the failed military uprising in the heart of Manila's
\nfinancial district, with both the stock market and currency
\nfalling.<\/p>\n
The swift and bloodless end to the mutiny late on Sunday may
\nhave mitigated the damage to the country's reputation but much
\nhinges on how the investigation is carried out and whether the
\ninstigators are punished, analysts said.<\/p>\n
As of 11:00 am (0300 GMT), the peso currency was trading at
\n54.363 to the dollar, down from its close of 54.010 on Friday.
\nThe key Philippine Stock Exchange composite index was down 2.49
\npercent.<\/p>\n
In the country's eighth coup attempt in 17 years, elite
\nsoldiers seized a portion of the upscale Ayala Center in the
\nMakati business district and demanded the resignation of
\nPresident Gloria Arroyo and her defense minister before agreeing
\nto return to barracks 22 hours later.<\/p>\n
\"Yesterday, we were relieved that the immediate crisis was
\nresolved via negotiations and without bloodshed,\" said Guillermo
\nLuz, executive director of the elite Makati Business Club.<\/p>\n
\"We had felt that going that route would have less negative
\nimpact on the country, but there's going to be a negative impact.<\/p>\n
\"We feel among other things (that) the Philippines' reputation
\nhas been damaged. There's a stigma once again and a reminder to
\npeople that this type of military action is possible within the
\nPhilippines and it's a scary lot.\"<\/p>\n
Comparisons are being made with the 1989 coup attempt, in
\nwhich rebel soldiers took over the same area in Makati for a
\nweek.<\/p>\n
Aside from the deaths of 53 people, the rebellion 14 years ago
\nset back the country economically by six years, officials said.<\/p>\n
That rebellion, which nearly toppled then president Corazon
\nAquino, and six other coup attempts wiped out international
\ngoodwill gained following the ouster in 1986 of dictator
\nFerdinand Marcos in a \"people power\" revolt.<\/p>\n
Analysts said the new revolt could push back the economy by
\none and a half years and limit the country's ability to grow
\nfaster than its official growth target of 4.3 percent for 2003.<\/p>\n
\"But four percent is not a very ambitious target. Ideally what
\nwe should like to do is to grow much faster than four percent.
\nThe longer term impact of the coup (is that) we may not grow
\nfaster beyond four percent,\" said Luz Lorenzo, an economist with
\nATR Kim Eng Securities.<\/p>\n
Lorenzo said foreign investors were not fleeing, but were not
\ninvesting either.<\/p>\n
\"It really is more of a standstill now rather than fleeing the
\nPhilippines. There is some reluctance to do anything at all.
\nThere is a wait and see attitude for now,\" she said.<\/p>\n
Luz of the Makati Business Club said a return of investor
\nconfidence would rest on the government's handling of the
\ninvestigation, citing precedents in the past when coup plotters
\nwent unpunished.<\/p>\n
\"We are really at the beginning of a problem and the rest of
\nthe damage will be dictated oby such things as the pace of which
\nan investigation takes place, the scope and the thoroughness and
\ncredibility of an investigation and what actions are taken.<\/p>\n
\"There are many unanswered questions,\" he said, adding that
\nany investigation must find out if the nearly 300 officers and
\nenlisted mutineers had backers civilian and military backers.<\/p>\n
\"Clearly, logistics and support and money went behind them,\"
\nLuz said. \"I think this is a black mark on all of us
\ncollectively as a society, as a country,\" he said.<\/p>\n
To restore investor confidence, Luz said: \"I think we have to
\ngo into some sort of renewed efforts to fix this country. This is
\na country that needs a lot of fixing.\"<\/p>",
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