Most of Asia on track for strong growth: Polls<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Reuters): Growth forecasts for much of Asia have
\nbeen raised once again after a generally stellar first half
\nperformance, although a few nations with persistent domestic
\nproblems bucked the trend.<\/p>\n
Reuters polls on 13 economies, excluding Japan, showed that
\nstrong trade performance, recovering domestic consumption and
\nfinancial reforms have put most countries in the region on track
\nfor solid growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2000.<\/p>\n
Economists raised growth forecasts for Hong Kong, Singapore,
\nAustralia, China, the Philippines, Malaysia and Sri Lanka due to
\na resurgence in trade and domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
But uncertainties ranging from slumping currencies to weak
\ndomestic demand and social unrest prompted economists to trim
\ntheir forecasts for New Zealand, Thailand and Indonesia,
\nrespectively.<\/p>\n
The growth outlooks for India, South Korea and Taiwan suffered
\nminor downward revisions.<\/p>\n
However, economists said Asia's strong recovery run would slow
\nconsiderably by the end of this year or in 2001 as the U.S.
\neconomy cools, the effects of higher oil prices kick in and their
\neconomic base widens.<\/p>\n
Hong Kong and Singapore, Asia's favorite economies outside
\nJapan, drew the largest upward revisions in growth forecasts
\nafter exceeding expectations in the first half of the year.<\/p>\n
Hong Kong's GDP is expected to grow by 9.2 percent in 2000 and
\n4.4 percent in 2001 over previous years against 5.8 percent and
\n4.5 percent forecast by the economists in June. The government
\nhas forecast 8.5 percent growth in 2000.<\/p>\n
Hong Kong's double-digit growth in the first and second
\nquarters was partly due to comparisons with data in early 1999
\nwhen it was still reeling from its worst recession in a decade.<\/p>\n
Growth in 2001 would be underpinned by foreign investment
\nflows once China joined the World Trade Organization and the
\nlikely emergence of inflation as consumer demand picked up in the
\nsecond half of 2001, economists said.<\/p>\n
Singapore's economy is forecast to grow by 8.4 percent this
\nyear and 6.7 percent in 2001. This compares with a forecast of
\n7.9 percent in August and an official growth forecast of 7.5 to
\n8.5 percent for this year,<\/p>\n
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised its forecast
\nupwards in August from 5.5 to 7.5 percent, after stellar second
\nquarter GDP growth of 8.0 percent.<\/p>\n
Economists said growth rates in Malaysia, Australia, China,
\nSri Lanka and the Philippines will also rise due to stronger
\ntrade and higher domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
Australia's GDP will expand by 4.0 percent in 2000\/2001
\n(July\/June) before easing to 3.6 percent in 2001\/2002, against a
\ngovernment 2000\/01 forecast of 3.75 percent and projections of
\n3.7 percent in the previous poll.<\/p>\n
In China, a rebound in domestic consumption and a steady
\nincrease in government investment were expected to spur higher
\neconomic growth of 7.85 percent year-on-year in 2000 and 7.89
\npercent in 2001.<\/p>\n
This could allow China to snap a seven-year streak of slowing
\ngrowth this year, economists said.<\/p>\n
Philippine growth this year is being driven by exports,
\nparticularly electronics, with domestic consumption and
\ninvestment likely to start contributing to growth only in 2001.<\/p>\n
The Malaysian economy will be supported by strong growth in
\nthe manufacturing sector, which expanded by 24 percent year-on-
\nyear in July, and consequently high exports.<\/p>\n
Economists have trimmed growth expectations for New Zealand
\nbecause of rising interest rates, a sliding exchange rate and a
\ndeep trough in business and consumer confidence. The average
\ngrowth projections for the calendar year slipped to 4.0 percent
\nfrom 4.5 percent in the June poll.<\/p>\n
Indonesia's economy is expected to grow by 4.0 percent in 2000
\nand 4.31 percent in 2001 but its recovery will be held back by
\ndomestic strife and slow reforms, analysts said.<\/p>\n
The June poll had estimated GDP growth of 4.06 percent and
\n5.15 percent, respectively.<\/p>\n
The market is waiting to see how President Abdurrahman Wahid's
\nnew cabinet performs, especially on corporate debt and bank
\nrestructuring. The cabinet was sworn in a few weeks ago.
\nAnalysts also have scaled back their forecasts for Thai economic
\ngrowth as doubts grow over the strength of the country's
\nrecovery.<\/p>\n
The poll shows the average forecast for Thai gross domestic
\nproduct growth at 4.84 percent in 2000 and 4.69 percent in 2001.<\/p>\n
The 2000 forecast is within the government's projected range
\nof 4.4 to 5.0 percent, but lower than the last Reuters poll's
\n5.09 percent growth in 2000 and 5.32 percent in 2001.<\/p>\n
Following is a table of the full results of the GDP poll. They
\nrepresent the averages of the 10 forecasts from each country with
\nthe March survey results in brackets.<\/p>\n
Govt forecast Actual<\/p>\n
2000 2001 2000 1999
\n --------------------------------------------------------------
\n Australia* 4.0 (3.7) 3.6 (3.6) 3.75 4.4
\n New Zealand 4.0 (4.5) 2.9 (3.1) 3.1* 3.5
\n Malaysia 8.6 (7.5) 6.6 (6.2) 5.8 5.6
\n Singapore 8.4 (6.9) 6.7 (6.3) 7.5-8.5 5.4
\n Indonesia 4.0 (4.1) 4.3 (5.2) 3.0-4.0 0.23
\n Hong Kong 9.2 (7.5) 4.4 (4.0) 8.5 3.0
\n South Korea 8.5 (8.2) 6.2 (5.8) 8.9 10.7
\n India* 6.6 (6.6) 6.6 (6.9) 6.5 6.4
\n China 7.9 (7.5) 7.9 (7.7) 7.5 7.1
\n Sri Lanka 5.1 (4.8) 5.1 (4.8) 6.0 4.3
\n Taiwan 6.5 (6.6) 6.1 (6.1) 6.57 5.4
\n Philippines 3.7 (3.3) 3.8 (3.9) 4.0-5.0 3.2
\n Thailand 4.8 (5.1) 4.7 (5.3) 4.4-5.0 4.2<\/p>\n
* fiscal 2000\/01 2001\/02)<\/p>\n
June poll forecasts in brackets<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/most-of-asia-on-track-for-strong-growth-polls-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }