Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia \u2014 The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics\nAgency (BMKG) says Indonesia\u2019s dry season could last longer because El\nNi\u00f1o remains relatively strong, although some areas have already\nexperienced rain.<\/p>\n
The agency\u2019s climate monitoring report for early October 2026 showed\na sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region of +3.33\u00b0C and\na three-month ENSO index for August\u2013September\u2013October (ASO) of\n+3.08.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the ten-day Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index stood\nat +0.703, relatively close to the monthly index of +0.72 recorded in\nSeptember.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese conditions indicate that a very strong El Ni\u00f1o and a positive\nIOD continue to tend to reduce the potential for rain-cloud formation\nacross Indonesia,\u201d BMKG said in a press release, quoted on Friday (16\nOctober 2026).<\/p>\n
The reduced potential for rainfall is consistent with increasingly\ndry land in a number of areas. This also increases vulnerability to\nforest and land fires, particularly in regions experiencing long periods\nwithout rain.<\/p>\n
Monitoring on 14 October 2026 identified 1,297 high-confidence\nhotspots. The largest concentrations were recorded in Sumatra, with 505,\nand Kalimantan, with 346, followed by Papua and Maluku, with 330.\nSulawesi had 66 hotspots, Nusa Tenggara 38 and Java 12.<\/p>\n
Himawari satellite imagery on 15 October 2026 at 1pm Western\nIndonesian Time also showed smoke spreading across much of Sumatra,\nKalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe distribution of hotspots and smoke shows that the risk of forest\nand land fires remains a concern, particularly in areas experiencing a\nrainfall deficit and dry vegetation,\u201d BMKG said.<\/p>\n
Amid persistently dry atmospheric conditions, hot temperatures have\nalso become a topic of public concern.<\/p>\n
BMKG recorded maximum temperatures above 37\u00b0C in some areas on 12\u201313\nOctober 2026: 38.2\u00b0C in Lampung; 37.4\u00b0C in South Papua and South\nKalimantan; and 37.8\u00b0C in West Java and Central Java.<\/p>\n
Several factors have contributed to the higher temperatures,\nincluding the Sun\u2019s apparent position south of the equator and limited\ncloud cover.<\/p>\n
This allows solar radiation to reach the Earth\u2019s surface at its full\nintensity, resulting in high air temperatures across much of Indonesia,\nparticularly in the south.<\/p>\n
However, BMKG said localised rain remains possible in some areas\ndespite the widespread dry conditions, as atmospheric dynamics may still\nsupport the formation of rain clouds capable of producing moderate to\nheavy downpours.<\/p>\n
\u201cSpatial MJO activity, together with Equatorial Rossby Waves, Kelvin\nWaves and Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves, is contributing to increased\nconvective activity, particularly in northern and western Sumatra and\nparts of Kalimantan,\u201d BMKG said.<\/p>\n
The conditions are also supported by slower wind flows in a number of\nareas and relatively warm sea-surface temperatures in western Indonesian\nwaters, which help supply the moisture needed for rain-cloud\nformation.<\/p>\n
In line with these conditions, BMKG recorded heavy to extreme daily\nrainfall in several areas between 13 and 15 October 2026: 187mm in Aceh,\n63mm in Southwest Papua, 95mm in North Sumatra and 69mm in West\nSumatra.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis shows that the potential for significant rain remains in some\nparts of Indonesia, even as other areas tend to be dry and have limited\ncloud cover,\u201d BMKG said.<\/p>\n
Around 76% of Indonesia\u2019s seasonal zones (ZOM) are still experiencing\nthe dry season, particularly in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Sulawesi,\nwhile 8% have entered the rainy season.<\/p>\n
This could prolong meteorological drought in areas that continue to\nreceive little rain, particularly southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa\nTenggara, parts of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, Maluku, and southern\nPapua.<\/p>\n
Although rainfall is generally forecast to be in the low to moderate\ncategory, rain remains possible in several parts of Indonesia.<\/p>\n
This is influenced by atmospheric dynamics that can support\nrain-cloud formation over a relatively short period. Spatial\nMadden\u2013Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity is forecast to be active in\nparts of North Kalimantan, West Kalimantan and North Maluku.<\/p>\n
BMKG\u2019s weather outlook for Indonesia is as follows:<\/p>\n
Moderate rain is forecast in Aceh, Riau, the Riau Islands, Bengkulu,\nWest Java, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, West\nPapua, Central Papua and Highland Papua.<\/p>\n
Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast in North Sumatra, West Sumatra,\nthe Bangka Belitung Islands, Southwest Papua and Papua.<\/p>\n
Rain accompanied by strong winds is possible in Lampung, Banten and\nWest Java.<\/p>\n
Moderate rain is forecast in North Sumatra, Riau, the Riau Islands,\nBengkulu, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Central Papua and\nHighland Papua.<\/p>\n
Heavy to very heavy rain accompanied by lightning is forecast in Aceh\nand West Sumatra.<\/p>\n
Rain accompanied by strong winds is possible in Bengkulu, Lampung,\nBanten, West Java and South Papua.<\/p>\n
BMKG urged the public to continue taking precautions against hot\nweather and drier air as the dry season persists.<\/p>\n
\u201cUse sunscreen to reduce direct exposure to sunlight. People are also\nadvised to maintain adequate fluid intake, especially when outdoors\nduring the day, to avoid dehydration and exhaustion,\u201d BMKG said.<\/p>\n
As dry conditions intensify, residents and local governments are\nurged to conserve water and remain alert to the threat of drought and\nforest and land fires.<\/p>\n
\u201cBMKG also urges the public not to burn rubbish or clear land\ncarelessly, especially in fire-prone areas such as peatlands, scrub and\nforests, and to report any suspected fire hotspots immediately,\u201d it\nadded.<\/p>\n
In areas at risk of heavy rain, BMKG advised the public and local\ngovernments to remain alert to possible flooding, landslides and\nlightning.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/mjo-rossby-waves-and-slowing-winds-bmkg-issues-latest-warning-1792151535", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }