Mega's silent maneuvers against Susilo's charm, who will win?<\/p>\n
Hanys Salmi, Kuala Lumpur<\/p>\n
As of last week, all opinion polls in Jakarta concluded that
\nfront-runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would win the runoff
\nelection on Sept. 20. Everybody in the impatient, reformist camp
\nholds to the view that Susilo's victory in the first round of the
\nelection on July 5 will surely pave the way for him to replace
\nMegawati Soekarnoputri as Indonesia's next president.<\/p>\n
Is this a hope, or will it become a fading dream?<\/p>\n
One of the factors behind Susilo's victory in the first round
\nof the election was his being regarded as the underdog. His
\nDemocratic Party is much smaller than he is. But had he not been
\nconsidered the underdog, the outcome would have been quite
\ndifferent. It was a derogatory remark by Megawati's husband,
\nTaufik Kiemas, against Susilo, that boosted the former general's
\npopularity and drove a huge number of her supporters to rally
\nbehind him.<\/p>\n
That episode gave Susilo the kind of emotional mass support
\nthat other presidential candidates did not have. From the
\nperspective of mass psychology, Susilo's first-round victory was
\ncaused partly by this fortunate episode and partly by his
\npersonal charm, which shone through in the absence of such
\nqualities in the other candidates.<\/p>\n
As of July 26, when the General Elections Commission endorsed
\nSusilo's first-round victory, he is no longer an underdog. He is
\nperceived to be the winner in the course of completion. This
\nbeing the case, he could risk losing public sympathy in the run-
\nup to the runoff because one of the characteristics of Indonesian
\nvoters is to side with the weaker, the smaller, the most
\ntormented, the underdog -- the very traits that have been wiped
\naway by his first-round victory.<\/p>\n
This being the case, Susilo needs to multiply his efforts to
\nswitch public perceptions from siding with the underdog to opting
\nfor whoever is best suited to the nation's needs. This is easier
\nsaid than done. This strategy cannot easily be implemented
\nagainst Megawati's advantage of being the incumbent with a much
\nwider corridor to maneuver through, and a plethora of political
\nvehicles to ride on.<\/p>\n
Susilo's first-round victory cannot give him any assurance
\nthat he has been the best, because millions of other votes went
\nto the three other candidates who failed to go to the second
\nround, while those who refused to cast their vote may participate
\nin the final round of the contest; their entry may not
\nnecessarily be good for Susilo.<\/p>\n
Golkar, which will control the majority of seats in the House
\nof Representatives, has seen its central executive board and
\nregional ranks become split, with some leaning toward Jusuf
\nKalla, who is Susilo's running mate, but party chairman Akbar
\nTandjung and a host of other top leaders are silently securing
\nbig chunks of the pie from Megawati's table.<\/p>\n
Likewise, the 40 million-strong Nahdlatul Ulama, the
\nProsperous Justice Party (PKS), United Development Party (PPP)
\nand other traditionalist Muslim organizations may eventually feel
\nmore comfortable aligning themselves with the nationalist Mega
\ncamp unless Susilo can offer them what she cannot.<\/p>\n
Muslim parties may not be too willing to be associated with a
\nmilitary figure, given their still-fresh memories of harsh
\nmilitary treatment against them during the Soeharto era.<\/p>\n
Intensive lobbying by leaders of Muslim parties and mass
\norganizations last week for a share of the pie in Megawati's
\nluxury buffet suggests that the power constellation in Indonesia
\nis swiftly changing in the incumbent's favor. Susilo needs to
\nconsider this new trend very seriously, instead of boasting about
\nhis incomplete victory.<\/p>\n
Being known as a reformist general is not necessarily good for
\nSusilo, who, \"black conglomerate\" leaders suspect, would throw
\nthem into jail should he achieve power. Such negligent debtors
\nprefer to see a compromise leader sitting in the palace and
\nforgiving them.<\/p>\n
Behind the stage of the open political battle, there is a
\ntough \"war of the dragons\" going on in Jakarta. The boss of the
\nGemala Group, Sofyan Wanandi, revealed his fears of this in an
\ninterview with Kontan tabloid this month -- that \"black
\nconglomerates\" would support a leader who would not cause them
\ntrouble when in power.<\/p>\n
On this particular issue, Susilo has yet to match his
\nchallenger -- an indication that Indonesian reform is being
\nsilently swallowed by the dragons of the old era.<\/p>\n
Against these shifts in the Indonesian power constellation, no
\none should be reckless in assuming that Susilo has a cast-iron
\nguarantee to secure his chances of victory in the runoff contest.
\nIt would not be too surprising if in the end he lost the contest,
\nthe consequences of which would be unthinkable to Indonesia's
\nprocession to democracy.<\/p>\n
Regional analysts would not be too worried at the possibility
\nof Megawati losing the game; they surely would, however, if the
\nloser were Susilo, who has been crowned too quickly by public
\nopinion that has ignored the incumbent's silent maneuvers.<\/p>\n
The writer works at Kuala Lumpur-based research company. He
\ncan be reached at hanyssalmi@malaysia.com<\/p>",
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