Mapping party strengths in West Java<\/p>\n
By M.M.I. Ahyani<\/p>\n
BANDUNG (JP): Which of the 48 parties vying for the support of
\n25 million voters in West Java is most likely to win the biggest
\nchunk of the 82 House of Representatives (DPR) seats allotted to
\nthe province?<\/p>\n
Goeswin Agus, chairman of the evaluation and information
\ncommission of the West Java provincial elections committee, said
\nrecently that judging from the parties' level of preparedness,
\nonly Golkar had cadres in even the most remote villages.<\/p>\n
"The West Java provincial elections committee is facing
\ndifficulties placing officials at voting booths, because (there
\nare more Golkar cadres) than those of other parties," he said.<\/p>\n
The presence of Golkar in the farthest corners of the country
\ncan no doubt be attributed to the extensive role of the former
\nbureaucracy. One needs to remember that in those areas, villagers
\nstill treat the words of the often coopted Golkar village chiefs
\nas gospel.<\/p>\n
B. Suryawikarta, a lecturer at Padjadjaran University's School
\nof Sociopolitical Sciences and at Bandung Institute of
\nTechnology, supported Goeswin's evaluation.<\/p>\n
"In my calculations, Golkar still has the strength to obtain
\n25 percent of the DPR seats in West Java," he said. Suryawikarta
\nalso said that peripheral urban and rural areas were dominated by
\nGolkar.<\/p>\n
Suryawikarta said had Golkar not seen the defection of some
\nsenior party figures -- who went on to establish the Justice and
\nUnity Party (PKP) and the MKGR Party -- it would have been able
\nto obtain 40 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n
The 1955 general election indicated the dominant political
\nparty in West Java was Masyumi (Majelis Syuro Muslimin
\nIndonesia). Its stronghold was in Banten and Cirebon regencies,
\nand from the regencies of Bogor and Purwakarta to the Priangan
\nregency.<\/p>\n
Moreover, in West Java there was an extensive spread of
\npesantren (Islamic boarding schools), the power base of
\nIndonesia's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).<\/p>\n
"It is usually like that. Wherever NU grows, it is balanced by
\nthe growth of Muhammadiyah and Persis," said Suryawikarta.<\/p>\n
The three Islamic organizations -- NU, Muhammadiyah and Persis
\n-- are in his opinion the foundations of the Islamic political
\nparties in Indonesia. The Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party (PSII)
\nand the Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association (PERTI) -- which also
\nbecame political parties in the 1950s -- were less well known.<\/p>\n
"In the 1955 general election the number of Islamic political
\nparties was relatively small. But in this year's elections, their
\nnumber is extraordinary," he said.<\/p>\n
There are already three versions of Masyumi, four versions of
\nNU, the United Development Party (PPP) and other parties which
\nadhere to Islamic teachings, as well as those which do not
\nexplicitly call themselves Islamic parties, but use Islamic
\nsymbols.<\/p>\n
Suryawikarta added that nearly all Islamic political parties
\nin this year's general election have their raison d'etre in West
\nJava.<\/p>\n
"It can be expected that 45 percent of the 82 seats at the DPR
\nfor West Java will go to Islamic parties," he said.<\/p>\n
There appears to be an awareness of the need to cooperate
\namong the Islamic parties. Twelve Islamic political parties
\nsigned a vote-sharing agreement in West Java last week. They are
\nthe PPP, the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the Justice Party (PK),
\nthe Islamic Community Party (PUI), the Muslim Community Awakening
\nParty (PKU), PPII, Masyumi, the Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party
\n(PSII), the Nahdlatul Ummat Party (PNU), the Indonesian Muslim
\nAwakening Party (KAMI), the New Masyumi Party and the Indonesian
\nSyarikat Islam Party-1905 (PSII-1905).<\/p>\n
In Suryawikarta's opinion, the Indonesian Democratic Party for
\nStruggle (PDI Perjuangan) will obtain a maximum of 20 percent of
\nthe vote from urban and peripheral areas.<\/p>\n
Suryawikarta believes that in regions where religion plays a
\nstrong part, like old Banten regency and Cirebon regency, Islamic
\nparties will obtain a fairly large number of seats. But these
\ngains will be balanced by an increase in the votes obtained by
\nsocialist and nationalist parties. These parties will indeed
\nobtain a greater number of votes, in line with the spread of
\nurban areas.<\/p>\n
TB Kun Maulawarman of the Institute for the Study of Policy
\nProblems in Bandung, said in a survey conducted by the
\norganization, only Golkar, PPP, PDI Perjuangan and the National
\nMandate Party (PAN) would win more than 10 percent of the vote in
\nWest Java.<\/p>\n
Other big parties, such as the National Awakening Party (PKB),
\nthe Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Justice Party, would obtain
\nbetween 1 percent and 10 percent of the votes, Kun said.<\/p>\n
"Although Golkar will still obtain more than 10 percent of the
\nvotes, the number will decrease mainly in urban areas."<\/p>\n
Map of conflicts<\/p>\n
According to estimates of areas of possible conflict in West
\nJava, the region along the north coast and the former Banten
\nregency would see many riots. However, two rounds of election
\ncampaigns have shown that the security of these regions is well
\nunder control.<\/p>\n
A rather serious crime occurred recently in Serang. Pro-Golkar
\nBanten sword masters attacked a group of PDI Perjuangan
\nsupporters. Work is needed to check further disturbances.<\/p>\n
Col. Wahyuddin of the West Java police said police had so far
\nonly been able to prevent acts of violence.<\/p>\n
"We are facing crowds that cannot think rationally, so the
\npolice have not taken any strict measures. However, our personnel
\nhave taken direct steps against crimes in the field," he said.<\/p>\n
So far, violations during the campaigns have mostly been for
\ntraffic offenses.<\/p>\n
Col. Wahyuddin said police safeguarding of the general
\nelection was a lengthy process. The post-election period, when
\nthe process of ballot counting and seat allocations takes place,
\nis also a stage that will need safeguarding.<\/p>\n
Goeswin Agus agreed with the security prognosis.<\/p>\n
"Even during production of the list of legislative candidates,
\nseveral acts of violence and threats took place. They were
\ndirected against the members of the board of political parties,
\nas well as officials of the Provincial Elections Committee," he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
"So far, people have been patient. We must understand that,
\nbecause the people are currently in the process of learning
\ndemocracy," said the professor from the School of Mathematics at
\nthe Bandung Institute of Technology.<\/p>",
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