Malaysia expected to avoid neighbors' turmoil<\/p>\n
By Simon Cameron-Moore<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): When the time comes for Malaysian
\nstrong man Mahathir Mohamad to stand down, his country will be
\nbetter equipped to ride the transition than some of its troubled
\nSoutheast Asian neighbors.<\/p>\n
Impeached Philippine President Joseph Estrada was bounced out
\nof office last month after a \"people power\" revolt swept Vice-
\nPresident Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to power, with the military's
\napproval.<\/p>\n
In Indonesia, President Abdurrahman Wahid's fragile hold on
\noffice rule following allegations of graft raises the prospect of
\nspiraling political and separatist violence and an erosion of
\nstability throughout the region.<\/p>\n
Thailand's newly elected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a
\ntelecoms billionaire, could face difficulties serving out his
\nfour-year term after being indicted by the country's anti-graft
\nagency. He denies any wrongdoing.<\/p>\n
Malaysia has its problems, but it also has history and wealth
\non its side. It is more developed, has a stronger middle class, a
\nmore cohesive elite, and, unlike its three aforementioned
\nneighbors, no record of military intervention.<\/p>\n
\"Now is not the time to be alarmist about Malaysia's future,
\nbut there is uncertainty,\" said Carlyle Thayer, a strategic
\nanalyst at the Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.<\/p>\n
Like Singapore, Malaysia is not a perfect democracy, but it
\nhas democratic structures and a bureaucracy that works.<\/p>\n
Its institutions are hardier than those in Indonesia, the
\nPhilippines and Thailand, although its judiciary needs to rebuild
\ncredibility following the conviction and jailing of Prime
\nMinister Mahathir's former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, on corruption
\nand sex charges, which raised questions about its impartiality.<\/p>\n
\"I think they have real institutions in Malaysia, and they
\nhave not been weakened to the same extent as elsewhere in the
\nregion,\" said Bob Broadfoot, managing director of the Hong Kong-
\nbased Political and Economic Risk Consultancy.<\/p>\n
Known locally as \"the Old Man\", Mahathir, 75, has led Malaysia
\nfor two decades, establishing it as one of the region's
\nwealthiest countries, behind tiny Brunei and Singapore.<\/p>\n
It bounced back from the late 1990s financial crisis better
\nthan most. It pegged its currency, erected capital controls and,
\nafter Anwar's jailing, drove protesters off the streets.<\/p>\n
International financier George Soros says Malaysia will
\neventually pay the price for its repressive government. Mahathir,
\nwell known for lashing out against western economic hegemony,
\ncalled Soros \"a moron\".<\/p>\n
There is speculation Mahathir may resign before elections in
\n2004. At 75, with a history of heart problems, his health is an
\nissue.<\/p>\n
He says this is his last term. No-one knows if he means it.<\/p>\n
If one institution dominates the landscape, it is Mahathir's
\nUnited Malays National Organization (UMNO), which has led every
\ncoalition since independence from Britain in 1957.<\/p>\n
\"The key thing is not Mahathir, it's UMNO,\" said Harold
\nCrouch, an academic currently serving as director of the
\nInternational Crisis Group's Indonesia project in Jakarta.<\/p>\n
\"In Malaysia there is an institutionalized political party,
\nUMNO, with institutional ways of doing things,\" said the author
\nof Government and Society in Malaysia.<\/p>\n
UMNO votes for a new leader in 2003.<\/p>\n
Home Minister Abdullah Badawi is Mahathir's named successor,
\nhis appointment as deputy was uncontested, but if he does get the
\ntop job he can expect a rough ride from rivals in UMNO.<\/p>\n
At least he will know where the challenge is coming from.
\nOther Southeast Asian nations have more fragmented elites,
\nspawning more potential challenges for power.<\/p>\n
If Anwar is freed early, he might pose a challenge, unless he
\nis banned from politics. Analysts say Anwar becomes more
\nmarginalised the longer he stays in jail. The Parti Keadilan
\nNasional, led by his wife, has been hit by internal bickering.<\/p>\n
The biggest risk of instability in Malaysia would be if
\ninfighting distracted UMNO from responding to the changes people
\nwant and race-driven politics increased ethnic tensions as they
\ndid in 1969 when 200 people died in Malay-Chinese clashes.<\/p>\n
Under half the Malays, who make up 55 percent of Malaysia's 22
\nmillion people, voted for UMNO in the 1999 election.<\/p>\n
The disenchanted reckon UMNO has failed ordinary Malays,
\ndespite economic growth seen averaging seven percent for last
\nyear and this year.<\/p>\n
They are angered by rumors of corruption and cronyism, and
\nview Anwar's jailing for 15 years on charges they think were
\ntrumped up.<\/p>\n
The main opposition is a regional Islamic party, which can
\nhardly count on support from the Chinese and Indian parties, and
\nhas a limited appeal to those Malays enjoying material wealth.<\/p>\n
\"Malaysia, because of its economic growth, is not ripe for
\nIslamic revival,\" Thayer said.<\/p>\n
The onus is on UMNO to choose a leadership people can trust.
\nUMNO Youth Committee member Nur Jaslan sees his party emerging
\nfrom the post-Mahathir reactions fit to reclaim the Malay votes.<\/p>\n
\"The way political change is motivated here is different -- we
\nMalaysians are a more forgiving people,\" Nur said.<\/p>\n
Observers expect Anwar's freedom to be part of the forgiving
\nprocess.<\/p>",
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