Mahathir on ASEAN center stage<\/p>\n
By Roberto Coloma<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (AFP): The severe crisis in Indonesia has eroded
\nPresident Soeharto's standing as the region's elder statesman,
\nallowing Malaysian Premier Mahathir Mohamad to fill the void,
\ndiplomats and analysts say.<\/p>\n
\"Overwhelmed by its own internal problems, Indonesia is no
\nlonger in a position to play its traditional leadership role in
\nSoutheast Asia,\" the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd.
\n(PERC) said in a report.<\/p>\n
\"Indeed, with its economic situation deteriorating almost by
\nthe day, Indonesia is in danger of becoming a regional liability
\nrather than an asset,\" added the Hong Kong-based group, which
\nanalyzes Asian trends.<\/p>\n
Mahathir completed a Southeast Asian tour in Singapore over
\nthe weekend after visiting Indonesia, Thailand and the
\nPhilippines to sell his idea of using their battered currencies
\nin regional trade instead of the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n
Stressing the need for a \"united front\" in ASEAN, whose major
\ncurrencies have fallen sharply against the dollar, he said he had
\nmustered support for the trading scheme, which is to be refined
\nby regional central bank governors.<\/p>\n
The mission came two months after Mahathir, 72, hosted a
\nsummit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
\nwhich Soeharto, 76, missed due to a still undisclosed health
\nproblem at the time.<\/p>\n
With 200 million people in a vast archipelago strung across
\nthe region, Indonesia has been the big brother within ASEAN since
\nit was founded 30 years ago. Jakarta has been a stabilizing
\nforce, serving as a mediator in solving the Cambodian conflict
\nand easing tensions over the disputed Spratly islands.<\/p>\n
But as Soeharto seeks a seventh five-year term in March
\nelections after being in power since 1966, he is facing his worst
\ncrisis since coming to power and Indonesia is sliding
\nirreversibly into a recession despite a US$40-billion
\ninternational bailout.<\/p>\n
Timely reforms have allowed Malaysia to avoid seeking a
\nrescue, and Mahathir has joined a procession of Southeast Asian
\nleaders who have visited Soeharto to offer their support.<\/p>\n
\"We can't let Indonesia go under. The only conceivable
\nscenario worse than turmoil in Indonesia would be turmoil in
\nChina,\" said an ASEAN diplomat.<\/p>\n
PERC said, \"widespread social unrest in Indonesia could result
\nin thousands of economic refugees heading to Malaysia and
\nSingapore in search of a better life.\"<\/p>\n
Soeharto's image was first hurt last year when pollution from
\nforest fires in Indonesia generated severe smoky haze which made
\nlife difficult for millions in the region and triggered unusually
\nopen and bitter criticism of Indonesia.<\/p>\n
PERC said because of the haze problem -- for which Soeharto
\nhad to apologize publicly -- \"Indonesia's moral claim to regional
\nleadership was seriously questioned.\"<\/p>\n
\"As Indonesia sinks deeper into an economic and political
\nquagmire, Malaysia seems well positioned to take over Jakarta's
\nrole as the effective leader of ASEAN, helping the countries of
\nthe region come up with solutions to their common economic
\nproblems,\" it said.<\/p>\n
Mahathir came under severe criticism last year and was
\nlabeled a \"loose cannon\" after calling for curbs on currency
\ntrading. But since hosting the ASEAN summit missed by Soeharto in
\nDecember, Mahathir has toned down his rhetoric and taken a more
\npro-active role.<\/p>\n
\"I would say Mahathir's status has edged upward, especially
\nwhen he held his tongue during the summit,\" the ASEAN diplomat
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
He said because of its largely ethnic Chinese population,
\nSingapore cannot seize leadership in ASEAN despite its financial
\nmuscle.<\/p>\n
The two other large countries in Southeast Asia, Thailand and
\nthe Philippines, cannot assume the role because their leaders do
\nnot stay in office long enough, he said. Mahathir has been in
\npower since 1981 and from all indications intends to stay at the
\nhelm.<\/p>\n
\"Malaysians in general are also probably more attuned to the
\nneed for regional solutions to regional problems than the
\ncitizens of any other country in Asia,\" PERC said.<\/p>",
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