Mahathir keeps fighting, but for how long?<\/p>\n
By Patrick McDowell<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP): When 15 skydivers set a record on
\nNew Year's Eve by parachuting off the world's tallest buildings,
\nthe Petronas Twin Towers, they received medals from the man the
\nnickel-plated spires have come to symbolize -- Prime Minister
\nMahathir Mohamad.<\/p>\n
One parachutist, impressed with Mahathir's achievement in
\nturning Malaysia from a rubber-dependent backwater into one of
\nAsia's most modern nations, commented that the world would be a
\nbetter place if there were 40 more Mahathirs to run it.<\/p>\n
Maybe not, Mahathir replied: "We'd probably spend all our time
\nfighting each other."<\/p>\n
Since taking office in 1981, Malaysia's leader has developed a
\nreputation for world-class pugnacity. He hasn't been shy about
\ntaking on all who got in his way, from uppity sultans to the
\nInternational Monetary Fund to his now-jailed former protege,
\nAnwar Ibrahim.<\/p>\n
But some Malaysians, even within his own party, are wondering
\nhow much longer Mahathir, still a vigorous 75 but increasingly
\nshowing his age, can hang on to power and whether the stability
\nhe has brought in a volatile region will be risked if he insists
\non staying.<\/p>\n
In recent months, the embattled opposition has increasingly
\nlanded telling blows, winning a key by-election and staging
\nsurprisingly well-attended rallies in Mahathir's home state,
\nKedah, in the northern rice bowl.<\/p>\n
Many Malay Muslims, the dominant ethnic group and bedrock of
\nMahathir's United Malays National Organization, are deserting to
\nan Islamic fundamentalist movement and to a party headed by
\nAnwar's wife.<\/p>\n
Efforts to bring the upstart groups into talks to restore
\nMalay unity -- where Mahathir's party has always called the shots
\nin a race-based system -- have failed. It could be an indication
\nthat politics have evolved beyond the ethnic passions that led to
\nbloody riots in 1969 pitting Malays against the Chinese minority.<\/p>\n
While Mahathir contends the 1997 Asian economic crisis that
\ntriggered the decline in his popularity is finished, with
\nMalaysia posting 7 percent growth last year, the dizzying boom
\nthat characterized Southeast Asia in the mid-1990s has never
\nreally returned.<\/p>\n
Buildings stand half finished. The national airline and a
\nlight-rail project recently had to be bailed out financially. An
\ninitial stock offering by a telecommunications company sold only
\na quarter of the shares available.<\/p>\n
And many fear vital electronics exports will slide if the U.S.
\neconomy should fall into a slump.<\/p>\n
The government has dusted off time-proven responses: It's
\ntrying to unite Malays by playing on old fears of Chinese
\neconomic dominance. It criticizes globalization while sending
\ntrade missions abroad to woo more investment. It has even accused
\nforeign media of an anti-Malaysian plot, triggered by photos in a
\nmagazine that Mahathir thought made him look "like an idiot."<\/p>\n
But none of that has struck home with the public, and
\nsentiment is growing that the prime minister is losing his touch.<\/p>\n
"The politics in this country is not the same as before," says
\nP. Ramasamy, a political science lecturer at National University
\nof Malaysia. "All these things that were taken for granted are
\nbeing sort of questioned, ridiculed."<\/p>\n
Shahrir Samad, a critical member of the governing party's
\nsupreme council, put it much more bluntly after the party lost a
\nhard-fought state by-election in Mahathir's home state in
\nNovember.<\/p>\n
"This is the 'old man syndrome' of an old man sulking,"
\nShahrir said at the time. "The voters did not see any changes in
\nthe government, which is perceived as full of corruption, self-
\nserving and out of touch with the people."<\/p>\n
Unless that changes by 2004, when parliamentary elections must
\nbe held and hundreds of thousands of young voters will cast
\nballots for the first time, the ruling party may be faced with
\nlosing power for the first time since independence from Britain
\nin 1957.<\/p>\n
The worst ethnic violence in decades erupted in poor townships
\non the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur in early March as Malay Muslims
\nclashed with ethnic Indians, resulting in six deaths.<\/p>\n
Though the cause was attributed to a local dispute and showed
\nno sign of spreading, the violence highlighted below-the-surface
\nracial tensions between majority Malays and minority Chinese and
\nIndians that define the country's politics.<\/p>\n
In his long career, Mahathir has alternately played up
\nfrictions and portrayed his government as the only force that can
\nkeep them in check to build a peaceful and harmonious society.<\/p>\n
Mahathir has promised to step down by 2004, but some feel his
\nparty needs to remake itself soon or keep losing popularity,
\nleading the economy to stagnate and fueling the rise of Islamic
\nfundamentalists.<\/p>\n
The Pan-Malaysia Islamic Party is the largest component of a
\nfour-party opposition front, but has little in common with its
\npartners other than a desire to defeat Mahathir. The party
\nadvocates an Islamic state, with separation of the sexes and bans
\non alcohol, but contends it would respect the rights of non-
\nMuslims.<\/p>\n
Speculation has arisen that Mahathir could be nudged out by
\nhis own party as early as April, after leaders of the party's
\nfactions are selected. The division leaders have launched party
\npurges in the past.<\/p>\n
But time and again over the years, the prime minister has
\nproven wrong those who tried to write his political obituary<\/p>\n
Most believe Mahathir will choose his own time and it won't be
\nsoon. Not even the opposition thinks mass protests will ignite to
\ndrive the government from office, as has happened in the
\nPhilippines and Indonesia.<\/p>\n
Chandra Muzzaffar, deputy president of the opposition National
\nJustice Party, notes Malaysia has neither the mass deprivation
\nnor cracks in the elite that characterized the Indonesian and
\nPhilippine upheavals.<\/p>\n
"We've had a political crisis for the past 2 1\/2 years, but
\nnot a single rat has jumped off the sinking ship," Chandra says.
\n"The rats know the ship is sinking, but they won't leave."<\/p>",
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