{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1606710,
        "msgid": "lpem-ui-forecasts-march-inflation-to-ease-despite-rising-oil-prices-1773284132",
        "date": "2026-03-12 09:25:31",
        "title": "LPEM UI Forecasts March Inflation to Ease Despite Rising Oil Prices",
        "author": "",
        "source": "CNBC",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "The Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI) has forecasted that annual inflation will decline in March 2026 to between 3.07% and 3.51% year-on-year, after rising to 3.55% in January and 4.76% in February 2026. The projection factors in potential energy price pressures from the Iran-Israel-US conflict in the Middle East, which could push crude oil prices to around $170 per barrel, though the moderation is expected due to the expiration of low-base effects and the absence of electricity tariff discounts that ended in March 2025. Inflationary pressures will still persist from seasonal Ramadan and Eid factors, as well as non-subsidised fuel price adjustments on 1 March 2026.",
        "content": "<p>Jakarta \u2013 The Institute for Economic and Social Research at the\nFaculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)\nhas projected that annual inflationary pressure will decline in March\n2026, following sharp increases to 3.55% in January 2026 and 4.76% in\nFebruary 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEntering March 2026, annual inflation is estimated to decline to the\nrange of 3.07% to 3.51% (year-on-year),\u201d according to the LPEM\nMacroeconomic Analysis Series for March 2026, released Thursday, 12\nMarch 2026.<\/p>\n<p>The LPEM economics team stated that the inflation forecast already\naccounts for potential energy price pressures stemming from the\nescalating conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel in the\nMiddle East. This conflict has disrupted one of the world\u2019s major energy\ntrade routes, the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>The escalation of the Middle East conflict is expected to push global\ncrude oil prices to the range of $170 per barrel, with greater\ninflationary risks if disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz persist.<\/p>\n<p>The LPEM economics team noted that the adjustment of non-subsidised\nfuel prices on 1 March could influence the cost structure of\ntransportation and logistics, although the impact would be less\nsignificant than if subsidised fuel prices increased.<\/p>\n<p>The principal factor accounting for the forecast moderation in\ninflationary pressure in March 2026 is the diminishing effect of the low\nbase as the comparison period ends\u2014specifically when electricity tariff\ndiscounts were eliminated in March 2025. Nevertheless, price pressures\nwill still emerge from seasonal patterns associated with Ramadan and Eid\nal-Fitr.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, government infrastructure projects, including\ndownstream industrialisation initiatives and housing development\nprogrammes, could add gradual upward pressure on prices if\nimplementation acceleration becomes more pronounced in early 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis projection still faces upside risks, particularly from\nincreased food demand during Ramadan, rises in transportation tariffs\nrelated to Eid celebration and holiday travel, and impacts from\nnon-subsidised fuel price adjustments on 1 March 2026,\u201d said the LPEM\neconomics team.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/lpem-ui-forecasts-march-inflation-to-ease-despite-rising-oil-prices-1773284132",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}