Long way to go for Megawati<\/p>\n
By Tjipta Lesmana<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): She appeared confident and very assertive on
\nher July 29 speech. She spoke as if she would surely be president
\nin a matter of days. She called the incumbent President by name
\nand warned him not to make any strategic policies in his
\ntransitional government. She called for a stop to those who are
\nmaneuvering to block her way to the presidency. She was too
\nemotional at one point and failed to fight back her tears.<\/p>\n
\"The Chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
\n(PDI Perjuangan) is ready to lead the country toward a new
\nchapter,\" she declared.<\/p>\n
The question is: Are the people ready to be led by the
\nchairwoman of PDI Perjuangan?<\/p>\n
Yes, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the eldest daughter of late
\nfounding president Sukarno, is posed to become our next
\npresident. As the winner of the June 7 elections, PDI Perjuangan
\nis entitled to form and lead a new government. But that does not
\nautomatically mean that Megawati is entitled to be president.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan won 33.76 percent of the popular vote, the
\nbiggest share achieved by a single party in the elections. Yet,
\nanyone could correctly claim that the majority of the people
\n(66.24 percent) in the elections did not vote for PDI Perjuangan.<\/p>\n
To put it another way, PDI Perjuangan won the popular vote but
\nit is far from being enough to win the presidency. Hence, when
\nMegawati repeatedly stressed respect for the supremacy of people
\nin her speech, which people did she mean? Was it not the 33.76
\npercent section of society? How about the 66.24 percent who did
\nnot vote for PDI Perjuangan? Are they not also constituencies who
\nhave every right to say something about problems facing the
\nnation? Yes, they are.<\/p>\n
Our political system is different from the parliamentarian
\nsystem. Instead of electing a president, people elect members of
\nthe House of Representatives or DPR, except 38 legislators
\ngranted by the Indonesian Military (TNI) whose 600,000 members do
\nnot vote. The 500 DPR members, plus 200 others representing
\ninterest groups and regional delegates, form the People
\nConsultative Assembly (MPR), which is the highest state organ. It
\nis the MPR which is going to elect a president and a vice-
\npresident.<\/p>\n
According to our system, the rule of the supremacy of people
\nis transformed to the supremacy of MPR (Article 1 of the 1945
\nConstitution). Any party contesting the presidency, not in the
\nleast PDI Perjuangan, must respect the basic law.<\/p>\n
How a president is elected is stipulated by Article 6: the
\npresident is elected by majority vote of the MPR. Megawati's
\ncontention that \"the supremacy of people echoed across the
\ncountry in the elections shall not be manipulated into the matter
\nof the supremacy of MPR\" is tantamount to misleading.<\/p>\n
The winner of the elections is still a long way from capturing
\nthe presidency. PDI Perjuangan's pressing challenge is how to
\nmarshal support from other parties or factions at MPR to help it
\ngain the majority vote needed to put Megawati as president.<\/p>\n
Central to the strategy is winning popular support from
\nregional and interest group representatives who are elected by
\nthe regional level of the House of Representatives (DPRD). In the
\npast, they were always part of Golkar's allies because they were
\npartly chosen by regional governments, which were heavily
\ncontrolled by Golkar, and partly elected by the president
\nhimself.<\/p>\n
A coalition of Golkar, regional representatives and the
\nmilitary faction formed a formidable force at the then MPR. So
\nmuch so that the two small opposition parties, United Development
\nParty (PPP) and PDI, were merely minor players. After Soeharto
\nfell from power, a new and more democratic ruling of the regional
\ndelegates election mechanism was set up. The representatives are
\nelected according to the power balance in each constituency. By
\nsuch a mechanism, regional representatives will never form a
\nsolid faction, but are torn into factionalism.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan won 155 seats in DPR, and Golkar ranked
\nsecond with 122 seats. Mathematically, PDI Perjuangan has the
\ngreatest chance to form the next administration. Politically,
\nonly the party which controls the single majority at the MPR or
\n351 seats can do it. Assuming that up to 40 percent of the
\nregional and interest group representatives support PDI
\nPerjuangan, Megawati's party still lacks 116 seats.<\/p>\n
The single majority is still far away even if Abdurrahman
\nWahid's National Awakening Party (PKB) gives all its 51 seats to
\nPDI Perjuangan. Amien Rais, once a potential coalition partner of
\nMegawati and Abdurrahman, is embarking on his own way. He is
\ntrying to materialize his own ambitions by rallying the so-called
\n\"axis force,\" representing the Islamic block, which claims 190
\nseats at the MPR. Assuming that Amien will not back away from
\nMegawati and is successful in forming a solid Islamic block with
\nits own presidential candidate, how can Megawati be elected
\npresident? There's no way.<\/p>\n
Megawati's July 29 speech was therefore sounding over-
\noptimistic. In the past, Golkar had absolute control of the
\ngovernment because of its continuing landslide victories. To be
\nthe fourth president of Indonesia, Megawati has no option but to
\nhammer out win-win deals with other parties, notably PKB,
\nNational Mandate Party (PAN) and the Indonesian Military.<\/p>\n
Instead of showing off, it would have been more elegant if
\nMegawati acknowledged in her speech the need to form a coalition
\nand how she would map out her strategy to achieve it. It was also
\nreprehensible Megawati did not spell out the contribution made by
\nother political groupings in the reform movement. She put too
\nmuch stress on the success of her party's quest to uphold
\ndemocracy, so much so that the contribution of others was
\napparently sidelined. This was seen as a sign of arrogance.<\/p>\n
Her stance on two important issues are worth commenting on,
\ntoo. First, the possible amendment of the Constitution was
\ntouched on in Megawati's speech.<\/p>\n
The PDI Perjuangan chairwoman, however, offered an ambiguous
\nresponse. On one hand, she gave her support to the possible
\namendment of the 1945 Constitution. On the other, she did not
\nexplicitly spell out her party's conception on the issue. \"I can
\nspell out my stand only after ... which articles need to be
\nrevised, for what reason and purposes ... .\" In a sense, Megawati
\ngave a warning signal to all parties concerned that they would
\nrather not talk flagrantly about Constitution amendments without
\nknowing its substance.<\/p>\n
The thought of the Constitution's revision has been
\neverywhere the past year, indeed. Not a single party has
\napparently opposed the idea. In view of this, PDI Perjuangan
\nseems to be left behind. At least party rank and files do not
\nmanifest a strong drive to talk about the subject. Dimyati
\nHartono, a leading party officer, rejected the idea in a recent
\nspeech. Those who disfavored the idea generally cited a threat of
\nendangering the stability of national unity and coherence as the
\nprime argument. But the 1945 Constitution is so undemocratic and
\nirrelevant in today's world that its amendment seems a choice any
\nwise politician and leader can not avoid.<\/p>\n
Second was the issue of East Timor. Being a nationalist,
\nMegawati strongly condemned Habibie's policy on East Timor. The
\npolicy, Megawati said, is evidently against the law. She cited
\nthe MPR Decree No. VI\/MPR\/1978, which categorically states East
\nTimor as an integral part of Indonesia. Consequently, holding a
\nreferendum giving East Timorese the option of independence is not
\nunder the president's authority, but the MPR's.<\/p>\n
However, nobody can turn the clock back. East Timor is already
\nan international issue. UN involvement there is so heavy that
\nIndonesia has no strong hand in determining the future of the
\nisland. The referendum is set for Aug. 30.<\/p>\n
The Habibie government is facing an ambiguity. His decision
\nfor the province to hold the referendum apparently lacks military
\nsupport. Since his shocking January announcement, international
\nnews has been inundated by reports about heavy military
\ninvolvement in several arsenal and mob attacks on civilians aimed
\nat discouraging people from giving support to the proindependence
\ncourse.<\/p>\n
Thousands of antiintegration followers reportedly fled the
\nisland to avoid attacks from the other groups. How could
\nprointegration militias acquire huge fire weapons if not from the
\nIndonesian Military?<\/p>\n
World public opinion is portraying the Habibie administration
\nas players in a dirty game. On one hand, Habibie kept saying the
\nTimorese could freely choose their fate, but on the other,
\nproindependence activists were persecuted. Between these two
\nantagonistic groups, the UN Assistance Mission in East Timor
\n(UNAMET) is accused of favoring the proindependence course.<\/p>\n
Megawati would respect whatever result came from the
\nreferendum, but in East Timor the policy was disgusting to her.
\nOne thing is certain, however, and that is she and millions of
\nother Indonesians will burst into tears if the voters opt for
\nindependence.<\/p>\n
The writer, a social scientist graduated from the University
\nof Chicago, is a columnist and lecturer.<\/p>",
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