Local elections -- the storm before the calm<\/p>\n
Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The saying \"the calm before the storm\" does not apply to
\nIndonesian politics. In most instances it is the exact opposite:
\na storm before the calm.<\/p>\n
The election season of 2004 was one case where initial concern
\nand anxiety belied the eventual calm at the polls.<\/p>\n
Now we are hearing much brouhaha over local administration
\nelections -- of regulations found wanting, a lack of preparation
\nand fears of chaos.<\/p>\n
With some 170 local elections throughout the year, there is
\nbound to be pandemonium. Yes, there will be clashes, cases of
\nballot fraud and vote-buying. Legal challenges will be abound
\nfrom sore losers and political opportunists trying to exploit
\nlegal technicalities.<\/p>\n
However for the most part, the storm will become isolated and
\nsporadic.<\/p>\n
The very nature of local elections -- provincial, regency and
\nmunicipality levels -- means the debates remain local, which will
\nresult in a disconnect between other areas. Hence the issues,
\nwhile interesting to watch, will not evolve into an agitating
\nnationwide affair.<\/p>\n
The lack of \"substance\" in the elections also makes for a
\nquick-resolving affair at the grassroots level.<\/p>\n
Despite a few campaigns exploiting religious slogans, local
\nelections will be ideologically free. Most of the candidates do
\nnot belong to ideologically rigid political parties since most
\nare secular in practice and running for crude realist objectives
\n-- power. Exceptions to watch are candidates from the Prosperous
\nJustice Party (PKS) who have shown a vein of conservatism
\nthroughout its history.<\/p>\n
Neither should we expect the local elections to pit major
\npolicy alternatives, because there is little policy distinction
\n-- if there is even a presentable cohesive policy proposed --
\nbetween candidates. The spewed rhetoric will predictably range
\nbetween sentiments of anticorruption, welfare, regional authority
\n(anti-Jakarta) and ethnic chauvinism.<\/p>\n
In the long run, the local elections should become a healthy
\nthing for democratic growth and the empowerment of local voices.
\nBut given the evolutionary nature of political change, it will be
\nmany years before an accountable and truly representative system
\nis in place.<\/p>\n
In the medium term, the success of local elections will shape
\nties between the center (Jakarta) and the regional
\nadministrations.<\/p>\n
For the short term, it is all about political elitism and its
\nimpact on the 2009 general elections. It will be a laboratory, of
\nsorts, for national and presidential election strategies.<\/p>\n
Three years of local elections presents the best way to
\nevaluate the true strength of political parties ahead of the
\ngeneral election. It will either confirm or dismiss self-
\nindulgent predictions of a party's power base. The compiled data
\nwill provide a basis for devising strategies to mobilize voters.<\/p>\n
It also will provide a matrix of local issues, which can be
\npaired with national platforms in the 2009 elections. Major
\nparties in 2009 will be more sophisticated in their campaigns,
\nand more able to highlight local content, rather than
\nunattractive general national issues as they did in 2004.<\/p>\n
The most important consequence of the local elections is the
\nfinancial one, and who controls what in which area. Command of a
\nlocal administration -- through the local council, regent and
\nbusiness community -- ensures a degree of monopoly over its
\nnatural resources.<\/p>\n
The balance of power within most parties has shifted toward
\nparty branches in regencies\/provinces for the simple fact that
\nparty central boards are now more dependent on \"contributions\"
\nfrom the branches.<\/p>\n
Success in places like Riau, East Kalimantan and Papua, often
\nmean profit for the party's war chest. Money, in politics, often
\ngoes hand-in-hand with electoral prowess. Central board
\nexecutives will be increasingly looking towards the regency
\nbranches to subsidize their campaigns in 2009.<\/p>\n
Sometimes it may be better in the medium term for a party to
\nbe victorious in a small but rich regency or municipality, than
\none that highly populated, yet limited in areas to financially
\nexploit.<\/p>\n
Such is the \"stormy\" nature of Indonesian politics which, for
\nnow, results in \"calm\" exploitation.<\/p>",
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