Let's get it right this time around<\/p>\n
James Van Zorge, Political Risk and Government Relations Consultants,
\nJakarta<\/p>\n
Why can't they seem to ever get it right? Mired in a climate
\nof political uncertainty since the fall of Soeharto, the
\nIndonesian polity has proven itself incapable of providing the
\nleadership and courage that is needed to address effectively the
\nmore pressing challenges that face the nation. The latest signs
\ncoming from the Megawati Soekarnoputri administration is that
\nthis disturbing trend is likely to continue.<\/p>\n
Looking back, the fact that Soeharto's first successor, B.J.
\nHabibie, was unable to lead his country is -- in retrospect --
\nnot much of a surprise. Seen as not much more than an old crony
\nof Soeharto, Habibie was ousted on relatively short order because
\nhe could never gain the legitimacy he needed to survive.<\/p>\n
His successor, Abdurrahman Wahid, was hailed as a legitimate
\nfigure, but given his erratic behavior and lack of a power base,
\nhe too was doomed to failure and forced eviction. Then there is
\nMegawati: Unlike Habibie and Abdurrahman, the new president
\npossesses both the legitimacy and the power base that are
\nrequisites for becoming an effective leader in the post-Soeharto
\nera. But where is Megawati's political capital being used?
\nUnfortunately, the answer is, towards no apparent end.<\/p>\n
Surveying the presidents' cabinets that succeeded Soeharto
\nwould suggest that, even there, Indonesia can't seem to get it
\nright. Habibie's cabinet was competent, but corrupt.
\nAbdurrahman's team of ministers was incompetent and, for the most
\npart, also corrupt. Now we have Megawati's cabinet, which
\nalthough can be given kudos for being incorruptible, is
\nincompetent.<\/p>\n
Take the case of the budget deficit. Rather than taking
\ncharge and ordering a timely disposal of state-owned enterprises,
\nMegawati and her team have taken the incredulous position of
\nsaying that the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks has resulted in a lack
\nof investor appetite. What they are afraid of saying in public,
\nbut everybody still knows, is that corrupt government officials
\nin places such as Padang, West Sumatra, are blocking asset
\ndisposals.<\/p>\n
One could argue that the executive office's hands are tied in
\ndeals such as Semen Gresik because of an intransigent parliament,
\nbut here again the reality is different: If Megawati and her
\ncabinet had the political courage to deal with the vested
\ninterests of the corrupt minority, they could rightfully and
\nlegally insist upon selling state assets-with or without the
\ncooperation of their counterparts in the legislature.<\/p>\n
By failing to take firm action, the Megawati administration is
\nlosing a US$520 million deal and, perhaps even worse, setting a
\nprecedent that will poison the integrity of regional autonomy.<\/p>\n
In earlier days, the government's talent for creating excuses,
\nwaffling and finger-pointing were effective in deflecting
\ncriticism of bad governance. But it has now come to a point
\nwhere the patience of the multilaterals and the international
\ndonor community is being severely tested.<\/p>\n
The Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI), for example, is now
\ninsisting on accountability and performance. Here, Megawati's
\ndream team seems to be doing little more than dreaming, and is
\nstarting to sound like Malaysia in saying that perhaps Indonesia
\ndoesn't need the IMF.<\/p>\n
On the edge of a global recession and a severe decline in
\ndirect foreign investment throughout the developing world, such
\nposturing can be seen as an attempt to play brinkmanship, at
\nbest, and could result in encouraging nationalist sentiments at a
\njuncture where Indonesia can least afford to turn inwards.<\/p>\n
The failure to display courage is not just going to spell
\ntrouble for the economy, but will affect Indonesia's foreign
\nrelations, as well. In the war against terrorism, Megawati has
\nfallen into the trap of trying to balance the interests of a
\nsmall extremist minority on the domestic front with those of her
\nkey allies on the international stage.<\/p>\n
On the one hand, the president talks of supporting the fight
\nagainst the likes of al-Qaeda, but on the other hand does little
\nto contain the behavior of extremist groups at home. Megawati
\nalso seems eager to display some support by sending Indonesian
\ntroops to join a possible UN peacekeeping force in Afghanistan,
\nbut shows little if any resolve in addressing the skeletons in
\nIndonesia's closet, such as East Timor and Maluku.<\/p>\n
In the end analysis, one must wonder whether or not the
\nMegawati administration is naive enough to believe that the world
\ncommunity will be forgiving of Indonesia for its poor track
\nrecord in human rights in return for a small group of
\npeacekeepers in a place outside its own borders.<\/p>\n
Amidst this unsettling environment, there is some good news.
\nUnlike her predecessors, Megawati still enjoys the support of
\nmost Indonesians. If Megawati were to be more courageous and ask
\nher followers to support her in making the hard decisions on
\neconomic reform and national security, her opponents would have a
\ndifficult time in maintaining the status quo of yesteryear.
\nMegawati and her cabinet have the political capital to make a
\ndifference in Indonesia's future, but they should be mindful of
\nthe old adage, \"Use it, or lose it\".<\/p>",
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