Kim leading thanks to some luck<\/p>\n
This is the second of two articles by Harvey Stockwin
\nanalyzing Kim Dae-jung's prospects in the upcoming Korean
\nelection.<\/p>\n
HONG KONG (JP): So what has changed now to give Kim Dae-jung
\nan obvious fighting chance? For once, he has had some luck,
\nsomething which seemed to elude him in previous campaigns.<\/p>\n
First and foremost President Kim Young-sam's administration
\nbadly discredited itself. It sought to purify Korean politics of
\ncorruption, then was found to be itself impure. Had that not
\nhappened, then almost certainly the New Korea Party (NKP)
\ncandidate would be, by now, well ahead in the polls and Kim would
\nbe trailing in second place once more.<\/p>\n
Second, the ruling NKP has additionally helped Kim Dae-jung by
\nnominating a flawed candidate, Lee Hoi-chang. At first, Lee
\nseemed the perfect choice to replace Kim Young-sam, having the
\nreputation of being a real "Mr Clean" in the Korean political
\narena.<\/p>\n
Then it transpired that he had used political influence to
\nshield his two sons from compulsory military service. His
\nreputation immediately sank and has not yet revived.<\/p>\n
So, third, the man Lee defeated for the NKP nomination, former
\nGovernor Rhee In-je, has re-entered the presidential race and is
\ncurrently running second to Kim Dae-jung, and ahead of Lee, in
\nthe public opinion polls.<\/p>\n
Fourth, for the first time, the presidential race has become a
\nmulti-candidate affair. Currently there are six candidates which
\nmeans in effect that the next leader is likely to be a minority
\npresident who has secured a plurality but not a majority.<\/p>\n
This multi-candidate situation suits Kim Dae-jung fine, since
\nhis power base in the disdained Cholla provinces, plus his
\ncontroversial record, both make it unlikely that he could win an
\noutright majority. This fact is born out in the opinion polls,
\nwherein Kim usually leads with between 30 and 36 percent support
\nbut without ever rising above forty percent.<\/p>\n
Sadly, the South Koreans, like the Filipinos, have not taken
\nthe vital democratic step of instituting run-off presidential
\nelections, whereby weaker candidates are successively eliminated
\nuntil the elected president has a majority of the vote.<\/p>\n
Kim Young-sam won in 1992 with less than 50 percent of the
\nvote, while Kim Dae-jung might win in 1997 with less than forty
\npercent.<\/p>\n
But Kim Dae-jung cannot afford to be complacent. If a week is
\na long time in politics, then the upcoming two months of
\npresidential politicking are a veritable eternity.<\/p>\n
The present prospect of a Kim Dae-jung minority presidency
\ncould be thwarted in several ways.<\/p>\n
The old regional, almost ethnic disdain, particularly strong
\nin the two Kyongsang provinces, for the man from Cholla province
\nmay resurface, even though it seems to be dormant at the moment.
\nKyongsang has provided the last four South Korean Presidents.<\/p>\n
Additionally, tied in with this reality, there is also the
\nparticular animosity felt by the ruling elite for Kim Dae-jung.<\/p>\n
Long regarded as a crypto-communist, a subversive, or a North
\nKorean stooge, the advent of democracy has not necessarily
\ndiminished this phenomenon.<\/p>\n
Kim Dae-jung tries to combat it by, for example, recently
\ncoopting 12 former generals into the NCNP ranks. It remains to be
\nseen whether he can win greater elite acceptance.<\/p>\n
In this connection, the long-expected but not-yet-realized
\nalliance between Kim Dae-jung and the third of the three famous
\nKims -- former Prime Minister and intelligence chief Kim Jong-
\npil -- could increase support for Kim Dae-jung by much more than
\nthe four percent which Kim Jong-pil tends to win when running
\nlast in current polls.<\/p>\n
A key imponderable remains whether an alliance between Kim
\nDae-jung and Kim Jong-pil would provoke the other candidates to
\nalso amalgamate. The impact of a troubled economy on voter
\nloyalties is another uncertainty.<\/p>\n
So far the chief characteristic of the campaign has been the
\ntremendous vilification of Kim Dae-jung by the NKP as they
\ndenounce him for amassing a US$ 70 million slush fund with which
\nto fight the election.<\/p>\n
The very intensity of the mud-slinging illustrates the elite
\ndisdain for Kim Dae-jung and Cholla. Those making the charges
\nhave obviously failed to remember that those placed in glass
\nhouses really should not throw stones.<\/p>\n
On Oct. 21, in a highly significant move, Korea's state
\nprosecutors rejected calls for a legal investigation of Kim Dae-
\njung's finances. The legal authorities let it be known that to
\nmake such an investigation two months before the election could
\nsplit public opinion, cause confusion in the country and impede
\nhopes of an economic revival.<\/p>\n
The prosecutors did not rule out a later investigation. But
\ntheir decision carried a double meaning for South Koreans.<\/p>\n
Prosecutors often act at the command of the ruling
\nadministration. Certainly they were refraining from following the
\nruling party's wishes in declining to act now on the assumption
\nof scandal.<\/p>\n
But as the state prosecutors refused to take sides in the
\nelection dispute, they indirectly made it clear to everyone that
\nthey, too, thought it possible that Kim Dae-jung, probably in
\ntandem with Kim Jong-pil, might well be the winner in December's
\npoll.<\/p>",
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