Kim Dae-jung finally wins presidency<\/p>\n
Two months ago The Jakarta Post Asia correspondent Harvey
\nStockwin reported that Kim Dae-jung could not be counted out in
\nthe presidential election which was then beginning (The Jakarta
\nPost Oct. 23, 1997 \"Kim leading election campaign\"). The article
\nreported that Koreans were calculating that \"Kim Dae-jung,
\nprobably in tandem with Kim Jong-pil, might well be the winner in
\nDecember's poll\". The following article examines whether Kim's
\nvictory on Dec. 18 signifies political change -- or a further
\nextension of the Korean political status quo.<\/p>\n
HONG KONG (JP): After a long night of cliff-hanging suspense
\nand uncertainty, and then amidst scenes of euphoria, veteran
\npolitician Kim Dae-jung, who has struggled for democracy in Korea
\nand in Asia through more than four decades, was finally rewarded
\nby being elected President of the Republic of Korea at his fourth
\nattempt.<\/p>\n
The possibility of two months ago has become the accomplished
\nfact of today. Kim Dae-jung, the old never-say-die warhorse of
\nKorean politics, has become the first opposition leader to be
\nelected president in Korean history.<\/p>\n
While Kim's victory is being seen, almost universally, as an
\naffirmation of the need for change by the electorate, the win has
\nthe contrary result of further extending the longstanding
\ndominance of the \"Three Kims\" in South Korean politics.<\/p>\n
This is hardly a clear signal of change. When Kim Young-sam
\nwon the presidency in 1992, it was widely asserted that the
\n\"Three Kims Era\" was finally over. Now, to the contrary, when
\nPresident Kim Young-sam leaves office on Feb. 25 next year, Kim
\nDae-jung will be sworn in as president and will almost certainly
\nappoint Kim Jong-pil to be prime minister once again, as he has
\npromised to do.<\/p>\n
As anticipated by The Jakarta Post, when the results came in
\nthrough Thursday night there was never any suggestion of a
\nlandslide either for Kim Dae-jung and his New Congress for New
\nPolitics (NCNP), or for his main opponent, the leader of the
\nGrand National Party (GNP), former prime minister Lee Hoi-chang.<\/p>\n
Lee led initially but Kim, never far behind, soon took over
\nthe lead and never relinquished it, before winning narrowly by
\n390,557 votes out of 26 million votes cast.<\/p>\n
Kim Dae-jung will, like his two predecessors, be a minority
\npresident, with 40.3 percent of the vote, while Lee secured 38.7
\npercent. But the key vote throughout the night, securing Kim's
\nelection, was that obtained by the New Party By The People (NPP)
\nled by former Governor Rhee In-je, whose vote hovered just short
\nof twenty percent of all votes cast.<\/p>\n
So, in the end, the election was a re-run, in reverse, of the
\nKorean presidential election of 1987, the first free election
\nheld after two decades of military-backed authoritarian rule.<\/p>\n
In 1987, longtime oppositionists Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-
\nsam made the self-destructive move of both trying to defeat the
\nruling party's Roh Tae-woo. Together their combined vote was over
\nfifty percent. If there had been a run-off election after the
\nthen third-placed Kim Dae-jung withdrew, Kim Young-sam would have
\nbecome president in 1987 -- and Kim Dae-jung might well have
\nsucceeded him in 1992.<\/p>\n
Now, in 1997, it has been the turn of the longtime ruling
\nparty to make the self-destructive move, with Lee and Rhee both
\ntrying to defeat Kim Dae-jung. Together their combined vote was
\n57.9 percent of the total, a remarkable achievement given that
\nthe GNP and the NPP are both spin-offs from the ruling New Korea
\nParty (NKP) which, under President Kim Young-sam, has led South
\nKorea into the worst economic crisis in its recent history.<\/p>\n
Six months ago South Korea was the eleventh largest economy in
\nthe world. Today, it has declined, as a result of depreciation of
\nthe won and decline of the stock market, to be twentieth. In most
\ncountries, these circumstances would have led to a massive
\ndecline in support for a ruling party.<\/p>\n
In part, the large vote of the two establishment candidates
\nreflects the deep suspicion and antipathy with which Kim Dae-jung
\nis still regarded. His first and foremost task will be to unify
\nthe country behind his leadership, thereby making himself into a
\nmajority president capable of coping effectively with the
\neconomic crisis. (A good beginning in this task will be made
\ntoday with the promised release of former presidents Roh Tae-woo
\nand Chun Doo-hwan, convicted for corruption and for their role in
\nthe 1979 coup in the wake of the assassination of former
\npresident Park Chung-hee).<\/p>\n
Such is the division within the former ruling party, it is by
\nno means certain that the GNP's Lee would have won, if there had
\nbeen a run-off election after the elimination of Rhee (19.3
\npercent) and four minor candidates who together secured 1,8
\npercent of the total vote. But a run-off, if it had taken place,
\nalso might have united the anti-Kim forces.<\/p>\n
The key critical development which gave Kim Dae-jung the prize
\nhe has sought for so long with such tenacious, and sometimes
\nshort-sighted, ambition was not merely the divisions within the
\nruling party. Success also came as a result of Kim's ability to
\nincrease his share of the vote to 40.3 percent in the last weeks
\nof the campaign.<\/p>\n
Under new regulations, no public opinion polls have been
\npublished in Korea since the official election campaign began on
\nNov. 26. When the last polls were published prior to the cut-off
\npoint, they tended to show that Kim Dae-jung retained a slight
\nlead over Lee and Rhee but had only around 35 percent support.<\/p>\n
A key electoral factor in improving this position was the
\nalliance with conservative personalities, carefully crafted by
\nKim Dae-jung, notably with former prime minister Kim Jong-pil.<\/p>\n
On the one hand, the Kim Dae-jung-Kim Jong-pil alliance has
\nserved to diminish the suspicion with which Kim Dae-jung has long
\nbeen regarded in conservative circles, not least because of the
\nblack propaganda directed against him by past authoritarian
\nregimes. On the other hand, the alliance has widened Kim's
\nsupport in other regions, besides his own strong base in the two
\nCholla provinces.<\/p>\n
Prior to the election Kim Dae-jung's left-of-center supporters
\nworried that his Cholla support might weaken as a result of his
\nalliance with a conservative like Kim Jong-pil. Given that, as
\nthe founding director of the formerly notorious Korean Central
\nIntelligence Agency (KCIA), Kim Jong-pil had once been
\nresponsible for plots against Kim Dae-jung's life, the alliance
\nwas said to be too opportunistic.<\/p>\n
In the event there was no need to be concerned. Kim's
\nextraordinary electoral lockhold on Cholla loyalty was again
\nreflected his remarkable 97.3 percent support in the city of
\nKwangju, 94.6 percent in South Cholla province and 92.3 percent
\nin North Cholla.<\/p>\n
But as Cholla people in Kim's home bailiwick, and also in
\nSeoul, rejoiced and danced in the streets, and opened bottles of
\nchampagne or rice wine, there was a big difference: this time
\naround, their man had, at long last, won.<\/p>",
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