Kashmir the key in India-Pakistan relations<\/p>\n
By Andrew Hill<\/p>\n
LAHORE, Pakistan (Reuters): A goodwill bus trip to Pakistan by
\nIndia's prime minister has put relations between the world's
\nnewest nuclear states on a safer footing, but ties remain hostage
\nto the 50-year dispute over Kashmir.<\/p>\n
Barring a dramatic and unlikely shift by either side, analysts
\nsaid there was little scope for a breakthrough -- but that
\ngoodwill generated by Vajpayee's bus diplomacy would help ease
\noverall tension for the time being.<\/p>\n
\"It's a first step. You cannot solve anything when you are
\nshouting at each other,\" said one Western diplomat in Lahore.<\/p>\n
Prime Ministers Atal Behari Vajpayee of India and Nawaz Sharif
\nof Pakistan pledged in a series of statements aimed at defusing
\ntension over their nuclear tests last May to work harder on
\ndivided Kashmir, cause of two of their three wars.<\/p>\n
But they went little further. Sharif said he believed
\nbilateral relations could be good \"once we achieve a final
\nsettlement of the Jammu and Kashmir issue\" and Vajpayee said it
\nwas \"much too early\" to say what solution would emerge.<\/p>\n
\"I do not see any progress made on the politically contentious
\nissues like Kashmir,\" said Zafar Cheema, head of the Department
\nof Defense and Strategic Studies at Islamabad's Qaid- i-Aamaz
\nuniversity.<\/p>\n
A Pakistani official added: \"The issue has not been shelved.
\nKashmir is there. It is in the declaration, that they will work
\nto resolve it. So fears that we would back down on Kashmir were
\nunfounded.\"<\/p>\n
Analysts said there was little scope for either country to
\nchange decades-old positions at present.<\/p>\n
Pakistan wants India to agree to a UN plebiscite so that the
\nMuslim-majority state can decide its own future, but India, which
\ncontrols two-thirds of the Himalayan region, says Kashmir is and
\nwill remain part of its territory.<\/p>\n
Thousands of right-wing Muslims incensed at Vajpayee's visit
\nmade the argument for Sharif in demonstrations in which at least
\none policeman died and hundreds of people were detained. The
\nprotesters accuse India of mistreating its Muslim population.<\/p>\n
But India's scope for action is limited by longstanding fears
\nthat a referendum in Kashmir could lead to pressure for other
\nregional plebiscites and a sort of \"Balkanization\".<\/p>\n
\"Vajpayee says they have agreed to discuss Kashmir, but that
\nhas been said by the Indians before. There is nothing new there,\"
\nsaid Shireen Mazari, expert on India-Pakistan relations.<\/p>\n
Analysts say their main hope is that the first visit by an
\nIndian premier to Pakistan in a decade will fill a vacuum with
\ntop level political discussion which could generate more goodwill
\nand eventually open up stagnant trade ties.<\/p>\n
\"They are creating an architecture for consultation,\" said one
\nsenior Indian official. \"It is very much like Northern Ireland,
\nyou have to change the mindsets.\"<\/p>\n
Officials from both sides dismissed suggestions that the visit
\nwas mere atmospherics and said the upgrading of peace talks to
\nsummit level -- and a pledge of more talks at foreign-minister
\nlevel -- would create its own momentum.<\/p>\n
A series of modest nuclear confidence-building measures are
\nalso likely to allay Western concern about an accidental nuclear
\nconflict and help generate more trust.<\/p>\n
\"The only concrete development is that they will inform each
\nother of unintentional or accidental use of nuclear weapons.
\nGiven the short span of delivery time between the two countries,
\nthis is a good development,\" said Mazari.<\/p>\n
Western defense experts have been alarmed that there is no
\nhotline between Islamabad and New Delhi to handle accidental
\nnuclear detonations or missile tests, and the premiers indicated
\nthat a communication mechanism would be set up.<\/p>\n
\"These (confidence measures) are important developments.
\nSimilarly the ballistic missile advance notice, I think this will
\nreverse apprehensions,\" said Cheema.<\/p>",
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