JSX may make rebound despite Aceh problem<\/p>\n
By Wachyudi Soeriaatmadja<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The trading outlook on the Jakarta Stock
\nExchange (JSX) this week will be marked by a slight technical
\nrebound despite the unresolved Aceh problem, analysts said.<\/p>\n
They said over the weekend the JSX Composite Index would
\nbounce back early this week after losing five percent during the
\nprevious week.<\/p>\n
"But the Composite Index could be just a little higher when it
\ncloses at the end of next week," Hendra Kustarjo of Panin
\nSekuritas said on the weekend.<\/p>\n
Increasing tension in the referendum-seeking province of Aceh
\nand the U.S. dollar hunt by local banks for their year-end needs
\nwould weigh on the market rebound this week, analysts added.<\/p>\n
In answer to criticism against the government's lack of
\nattention over Aceh problems, President Abdurrahman Wahid last
\nweek promised to hold talks with Acehnese leaders here in
\nJakarta.<\/p>\n
But many speculated Abdurrahman would not meet the Acehnese
\ndelegates until after Dec. 4.<\/p>\n
The Acehnese will hold a commemoration of the 23rd anniversary
\nof the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) on Dec. 4. This event, as
\nanalysts said, would possibly invite an unrest that could upset
\nthe stock market.<\/p>\n
Analysts were also afraid the dollar hunting toward the end of
\nthe year would dampen the rupiah, and thus, the stock market.<\/p>\n
"The weakening rupiah, which could also happen as a result of
\nexcessive dollar buying, would also be a concern for the market,"
\none analyst said.<\/p>\n
Analysts also added the fear of another banking scandal, which
\ncould hamper the country's bank restructuring program, should not
\nbe underestimated.<\/p>\n
A business tabloid reported last week that Bank Negara
\nIndonesia (BNI) did not transfer bad loans worth over Rp 9
\ntrillion to the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA) as
\nrequired by its recapitalization agreement with the government.
\nBNI denied the report.<\/p>\n
Related to the outlook of JSX this week, Hendra said some
\nlocal investors had started early in collecting a number of value
\nshares to anticipate the January effect, where the stock market
\nindex would usually rise on the flow back of the foreign fund
\ninvestment following their year-end holidays.<\/p>\n
"These foreign funds have equity portfolios around the world
\nand there must be some allocation for Indonesia as well," he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
He said the long-term expectation of the bullish market early
\nnext year could, to some extent, start to reflect as early as
\nthis week.<\/p>\n
However, for this week particularly, he stressed that the
\nmarket would be stagnant to higher.<\/p>\n
"Most of the foreign funds have closed the books and secured
\ntheir profits for the year," he said.<\/p>\n
But he said JSX had gained a considerably greater reliance on
\nthe growing number of local investors recently.<\/p>\n
"This is in line with the country's low deposit interest
\nrates," he said.<\/p>\n
Hendra also mentioned the noticeably increasing number of
\ncompanies wanting to issue new shares through the Initial Public
\nOffering (IPO) mechanism at the JSX.<\/p>\n
He said a number of companies, willing to base on the end-of-
\nJune financial performance, were rushing for IPO in December,
\nbefore the current year elapse.<\/p>\n
"The noticeably increased number of companies going for IPOs
\nwill certainly affect the index positively," he said.<\/p>\n
Investors could buy IPO shares, close their eyes, wait for
\njust a relatively short while and book a profit as much as five
\npercent, Hendra said.<\/p>\n
"The miracle of IPOs in Indonesia is still happening," he
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
On the Aceh issue, he said the market would still be emotional
\nfor the time being.<\/p>\n
"When the intense situation within currently uneasy Aceh
\nsettles and the government offers a satisfactorily greater
\nautonomy for the province, the problem will just be solved
\nthere," he said.<\/p>\n
On the rupiah, analysts predicted it could easily weaken
\nfurther to the 7,300 level this week with the increased nervous
\nsentiment over the unresolved problems in Aceh.<\/p>\n
Local banks were seen buying U.S. dollars later last week to
\nsecure their year-end needs amid the absence of central bank
\nintervention.<\/p>\n
A few foreign players were also buying some dollars on Y2K
\nfear.<\/p>\n
Analysts said dollar hunting by locals and foreigners could
\ncontinue to pressure the rupiah this week.<\/p>\n
The JSX Composite Index decreased by 5.8 percent to 596.35
\npoints last week from 633.31 points the previous week.<\/p>\n
The average daily turnover last week increased to 639.6
\nmillion shares, compared to 542.7 million the previous week.<\/p>\n
But the average daily transaction value decreased to Rp 461.8
\nbillion last week from Rp 579.1 billion the week before.<\/p>\n
Last week's top gainers were PT Multi Bintang Indonesia,
\nrising 72.73 percent, PT Cipendawa Farm Enterprises, which went
\nup 36.84 percent, and PT Lion Mesh, which went up 33.33 percent
\nby the end of the week.<\/p>\n
The losers of the week were PT Fiskaragung Perkasa, losing 50
\npercent, PT Putra Surya Perkasa, which also went down by 50
\npercent, and PT Centris Multi Persada, which lost 47.54 percent
\nin the week.<\/p>\n
The top brokerage firms by transaction value were PT Jardine
\nFleming Nusantara with Rp 271.1 billion, PT Credit Lyonnais with
\nRp 199.2 billion and PT Danareksa Sekuritas, which did Rp 197.4
\nbillion in business.<\/p>\n
The rupiah went down by three percent to close at 7,205 to the
\nU.S. dollar last week, compared to its close at Rp 6,990 the
\nprevious week.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/jsx-may-make-rebound-despite-aceh-problem-1447893297",
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