JP\/6\/SAYID<\/p>\n
U.S. must consider effects of drawn-out war<\/p>\n
How long will the Iraq affair last?<\/p>\n
Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo
\nFormer Governor
\nNational Resilience Institute
\n(Lemhanas)
\nJakarta<\/p>\n
We are now into the second week of the American aggression
\nagainst Iraq and people are starting to wonder how long this
\naffair will last. Many people, especially in the U.S., thought
\nthe aggression would be a light and quick adventure for its armed
\nforces, with its overwhelming technological superiority. Not only
\nis the Iraqi army smaller in number than its U.S., British and
\nAustralian opponents, it also cannot hope to match the U.S.
\nfirepower and mobility. It looks very much like a fight between
\nDavid and Goliath.<\/p>\n
However, it seems that the fighting is not just decided by the
\nsize of the armies and their technological capabilities. An
\nequally, perhaps even more, important factor is the fighting
\nspirit of the Iraqi people and its army. The Americans are aware
\nof this and have taken the necessary measures to minimize that
\nfactor.<\/p>\n
Even before the invasion started the Americans had begun their
\npsychological warfare efforts, which are ongoing. Leaflets are
\ndropped and radio and television programs are broadcast to
\nconvince the Iraqi people and army that the U.S. is not fighting
\nthem, but that their aim is to liquidate Saddam Hussein.<\/p>\n
And is not the Saddam regime the cause of much suffering for
\nthe Iraqi people? They should therefore not take up arms against
\nthe U.S. and its allies, who come as liberators for the oppressed
\nIraqi people.<\/p>\n
And why should the Iraqi army fight the U.S. forces if it is
\nalready an established fact that the Americans and their allies
\nare superior? That would only cause unnecessary loss of life and
\nsorrow. The quicker Saddam Hussein and his entourage can be
\nliquidated the better for Iraq. Because the U.S. would then
\ninitiate the reconstruction of the country and the realization of
\na democratic and prosperous Iraq.<\/p>\n
We saw on television that these psychological operations had
\nsome effect, when Iraqi soldiers were shown surrendering to the
\nU.S. army and marines while some high-spirited Iraqi people shook
\nhands with the invading Americans.<\/p>\n
However, it also became clear that this was not the whole
\npicture. The U.S. Central Command had to brief the press that
\nthere were still firefights in Umm Qasr, which three days earlier
\nhad been proclaimed to be in U.S. hands.<\/p>\n
That meant the U.S. could not break the Iraqi fighting spirit
\nentirely. And the reports of fierce fighting in Basra and
\nNasiriya are clear indications that the war is far from over. And
\nstill the U.S. and the allied forces have not entered Baghdad,
\nwhich must be the main target of their military operations. On
\nthe sixth day of the aggression it was reported that U.S. forces
\nwere about 50 miles from Baghdad.<\/p>\n
The U.S. military strategy in the attack on Baghdad seems to
\nbe centered on the use of tremendous firepower, with the launch
\nof cruise missiles from naval ships far from Iraq and bombs
\ndropped from B-52 and other bombers. The objective is surely to
\nhit and liquidate Saddam Hussein and his family and principal
\nassistants. Another objective could also be to demoralize the
\npeople and army in Baghdad, and convince them that it would be
\nbetter for them not to oppose the American invasion.<\/p>\n
It is, however, far from certain that the bombings have killed
\nSaddam. And it is still to be seen whether the Iraqi people and
\narmy in Baghdad are demoralized by the very heavy firepower. If
\nthey are, then the capture of Baghdad by the approaching U.S.
\nforces will be easy. It would also facilitate the capture of
\nSaddam, dead or alive. But reported resistance in Umm Qasr, Basra
\nand Nasiriya suggests there is no guarantee that the Iraqis in
\nBaghdad will be easy prey for the Americans.<\/p>\n
The Americans will face trouble even if they can enter
\nBaghdad. The Iraqis will definitely challenge the Americans and
\nallies in urban combat. In urban combat, U.S. technological
\nsuperiority will be almost neutralized, because urban fighting
\nbasically relies on the use of small arms.<\/p>\n
We remember how the Russians defended Stalingrad against the
\nGerman offensive during World War II and how Stalingrad became
\nthe graveyard of many German soldiers. And we don't know how
\neffective the U.S. and British soldiers are in this kind of
\nfighting.<\/p>\n
For them, the decisive factor could be their professionalism.
\nFor the Iraqis, who are willing and ready to sacrifice themselves
\nin close combat, the decisive factor could be a fighting spirit
\nthat is motivated by patriotism. Early on Thursday the Americans
\nhad to admit to the loss of a tank by an Iraqi suicide attack
\nnear Basra. The same sorts of attacks, perhaps on a larger scale,
\ncould happen in Baghdad, which would lead to the sad conclusion
\nthat the U.S. invasion will become a drawn-out affair.<\/p>\n
And that would have a very significant influence on the
\ninternational situation, politically as well as economically.
\nPresident George W. Bush seemed to be aware of that possibility
\nwhen he stated that the war could last longer than expected.<\/p>\n
Have he and his hawkish assistants already considered the new
\nproblems they will have to confront domestically as well as
\ninternationally?<\/p>",
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