Jockeying for power sacrifices reform<\/p>\n
"Prepare to bid farewell to reform if all presidential
\naspirants continue to jostle for power," political researcher
\nMuhammad A.S. Hikam said in an interview with The Jakarta Post.<\/p>\n
Question: Fifty-one members of the National Awakening Party
\n(PKB) who became members of the People's Consultative Assembly
\nhave declared under a bai'at on Wednesday to vote for Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri. Does this mean chances for the presidency are
\ndashed for Abdurrahman Wahid, the PKB founder and candidate of
\nthe "axis force," the alliance of Muslim-based parties?<\/p>\n
Answer: No, the bai'at cannot be used as an indicator (of an
\nindividual's allegiance). Only a party sanction would be binding;
\nthe bai'at only gives psychological strength to Megawati's
\ncandidacy. The bai'at in Islam is a promise which individuals can
\nchange in the face of strong reasoning.<\/p>\n
Q: Do you agree that the "axis force" has real strength, bearing
\nin mind it has more than 163 seats in the legislative bodies?<\/p>\n
A: No, such calculations include the National Mandate Party (PAN)
\nand PKB, and I'm sure over half of PAN members don't agree with
\nthe candidacy of Gus Dur. Maybe the "axis force" just represents
\n(the leaders) themselves. I don't accept the argument that they
\nrepresent Muslims... those who voted for Megawati's party (the
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI Perjuangan) were
\nlargely Muslims.<\/p>\n
I have always said Gus Dur should not run against Megawati...
\nIf they compete with each other it would be to the advantage of a
\nthird party, like the military or Habibie.<\/p>\n
Should a deadlock happen only then should Gus Dur become the
\nalternative, he could work with anyone. He would be able to offer
\nconcessions (to Golkar) like taking many able Golkar people into
\nthe government, but only those acceptable to the public.<\/p>\n
Q: So how do you see Abdurrahman's chance for the presidency?<\/p>\n
A: The "axis force" would only be strong among others if Golkar
\ndropped (President B.J.) Habibie as their candidate, then Golkar
\nmembers would all shift their vote for Megawati or Gus Dur.<\/p>\n
These would be many of the "nationalist" members who no longer
\nagree with Habibie.<\/p>\n
PKB members could also then rush back (from their promise to
\nvote for Megawati) to support Gus Dur. Maybe Gus Dur could insist
\non their support for the sake of solidarity for Nahdlatul Ulama
\n(the Muslim organization which Abdurrahman chairs, in which many
\nPKB members are members).<\/p>\n
So the best thing to do, before everything is too late, is
\nthat Gus Dur supports Megawati, and Golkar becomes an opposition
\nparty with the "axis force". This would be very good for
\ndemocratization. Golkar has the political experience and the most
\nskilled human resources, and would be an effective balancing
\npower to PDI Perjuangan.<\/p>\n
This would also give the opportunity for Golkar to prove that
\nin the next five years it could become a force to be appreciated
\nin politics... they could still be in power again. If they're
\njust greedy like they are now, they will remain a small party.<\/p>\n
Q: Would you say Megawati's chances are good?<\/p>\n
A: PDI Perjuangan is stronger (regarding support for their
\ncandidate) but it still has to work hard. I've heard Golkar can
\nconvert 17 PDI Perjuangan members (to vote for Habibie )... maybe
\nfor money or for other reasons. These would include the members
\nfrom the eastern islands. That's politics...<\/p>\n
So it is such a pity that the team (of party representatives)
\ndrawing up the internal rules for the People's Consultative
\nAssembly are recommending a closed voting mechanism ... It is
\nvulnerable to money politics; parties will not be able to control
\ntheir members' discipline. And it is very important for the
\npublic to know which members are consistent to their party's
\ncandidates, which Golkar members would vote for Megawati, or
\nwhich PDI Perjuangan members would vote for candidates other than
\nMegawati.<\/p>\n
Q: How much is one vote worth these days in money politics?<\/p>\n
A: It can go up to Rp 2 billion I hear.<\/p>\n
Q: So who actually still supports Habibie?<\/p>\n
A: Apart from the ICMI (Association of Indonesian Muslim
\nIntellectuals), maybe the military if (Indonesian Military\/TNI)
\nGen. Wiranto is proposed as vice president. Of course that would
\nbe stupid to do and would be the worst scenario. Golkar has
\nestimated it has only 79 members supporting Habibie.<\/p>\n
Q: How do you see the possibility of PDI Perjuangan allying with
\nGolkar?<\/p>\n
A: It is very possible and it would erode the quality of
\nMegawati's legitimacy. A terrible possibility is an alliance of
\nGolkar, PDI Perjuangan and the Indonesian Military; again we
\nwould be welcoming an authoritarian regime. Then it's about turn
\nand goodbye to reform.<\/p>\n
An alliance with Golkar could happen if PDI Perjuangan feels
\ncornered; it doesn't want to become an opposition and it wouldn't
\nwant to waste its votes of almost 35 percent of the population.<\/p>\n
It is true it would be a pity to waste all those votes but
\nbecoming the opposition would be better than building an alliance
\nwith Golkar.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan indeed would be very strong; with Golkar they
\nwouldn't need the votes of anyone else such as PKB or TNI.<\/p>\n
It looks like PDI Perjuangan will do anything to win;
\ndemocracy needs compromising but it should not be to the extent
\nof compromising principles.<\/p>\n
Even if PDI Perjuangan has to work with Golkar, it should only
\nbe with its members and not the institution. If it does, it can
\nno longer claim to be a reformist force. (anr)<\/p>",
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