Jakarta is smaller than it should be<\/p>\n
Robert Kelly, Jakarta<\/p>\n
By some measures, Jakarta is the fourth-largest city in the
\nworld. Traffic congestion, air pollution, over-crowding, crime
\nand rising property prices all attest to its rapid growth, and
\nall are problems the capital's residents have to confront daily.<\/p>\n
So it might surprise you to learn that Jakarta is actually too
\nsmall -- 4.3 million people too small.<\/p>\n
The source of this uncomfortable revelation is a phenomenon
\ncalled Zipf's Law. It states that the largest city in a country
\ntends to be twice as large as the second-largest city, three
\ntimes larger than the third-largest city, four times larger than
\nthe fourth-largest city, and so on.<\/p>\n
Zipf's Law is very common, and is found in countries as
\ndiverse as the United States, Argentina, Pakistan and Japan.
\nWhere the Law doesn't hold, it's usually because the capital city
\nis larger than expected: Notable instances include London, Paris
\nand Mexico City.<\/p>\n
All of which makes Jakarta highly unusual -- for Jakarta is
\nactually smaller than Zipf's Law predicts.<\/p>\n
Jakarta contains over 9.4 million people. According to Zipf's
\nLaw, it should be double the size of Bandung, five times larger
\nthan Surabaya, nine times larger than Medan, twenty times larger
\nthan Samarinda. In fact, it falls short in every single case.
\nCompared with Medan, for example, Jakarta is barely half the size
\nit should be.<\/p>\n
If Java is taken as the reference point, rather than the whole
\nof Indonesia, the same pattern emerges. Jakarta is four times
\nlarger than Semarang when it should be six times bigger. It
\nshould be eleven times larger than Tegal, yet is only five times
\nthe size.<\/p>\n
Of course, it is possible that Indonesia is unique in some
\nway: That Zipf's Law doesn't apply and that Jakarta is not \"too
\nsmall\". However, this seems unlikely when one considers the
\ndiversity of countries where the Law does apply: Why should it
\napply to the U.S. and Pakistan and not to Indonesia?<\/p>\n
It is also possible that Zipf's Law is unimportant, a
\nstatistical oddity that countries can safely ignore.
\nUnfortunately, the latest academic research suggests that there
\nare good reasons why urban systems tend to evolve towards Zipf's
\nLaw. It appears that Zipf's Law represents an \"efficient\"
\nconfiguration of cities, in the sense of maximizing a nation's
\neconomic output subject to demographic and transport constraints.<\/p>\n
In fact, in all likelihood Indonesia is merely in a state of
\ntransition, moving towards Zipf's Law but not quite there yet. If
\nthat is the case, Jakarta can expect plenty more growth to come.<\/p>\n
To properly conform to Zipf's Law, Jakarta would have to grow
\nby a staggering 46 percent -- roughly 4.3 million more people
\npacked within the city limits! And that assumes that other cities
\nremain at their current sizes. If they themselves continue to
\ngrow, Jakarta's population would have to grow yet more to
\ncompensate.<\/p>\n
Clearly, over the next few years Jakarta's growth is likely to
\nbe influenced by a host of other factors, not least the
\nperformance of the national economy and government policy towards
\nregional development.<\/p>\n
Nonetheless, Zipf's Law does give pause for thought. Next time
\nyou find yourself stuck in one of Jakarta's endless traffic jams,
\nconsole yourself with the knowledge that Jakarta is actually less
\ncrowded than it should be.<\/p>\n
The writer is a freelance British journalist living in
\nJakarta. and can be reached at robert_em_kelly@yahoo.co.uk<\/p>",
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