It's decision time<\/p>\n
Today, Monday Aug. 30, is a historic and decisive moment for
\nthe people of East Timor. For the first time ever, the people in
\nthis territory will vote, hopefully in a free, fair and peaceful
\nfashion, to determine their own future. A democratic practice
\nthat is taken for granted in most civilized nations in other
\nparts of the world is finally reaching this tiny nation.<\/p>\n
This is an election that should have been carried out 24 years
\nago when Portugal decided to abandon its long-held colony.
\nHistory would have it differently. Portugal withdrew in haste,
\nleaving in its wake a bloody civil war. Indonesia came into the
\npicture and has been caught in the political quagmire ever since.
\nThe election never took place, and instead the territory plunged
\ninto an endless cycle of violence.<\/p>\n
More than 450,000 eligible voters in East Timor and elsewhere
\nhave registered for what is officially called a "popular
\nconsultation". This is an arrangement that was hammered out by
\nIndonesia and Portugal -- both are guilty for today's state of
\naffairs in East Timor -- and is supervised by the United Nations.<\/p>\n
It is a ballot that requires voters only to say "yes" or "no"
\nto an Indonesian government offer to formally join the republic
\nas a special autonomous region. Yet for a simple ballot, it has
\nserious and, probably, lasting consequences. A "yes" vote will
\nmean the territory coming under Indonesia's rule with all the
\nconsequences, including abiding by the country's laws. The
\nautonomy status is a sweetener, but the bottom line is that East
\nTimor would join Indonesia. A "no" vote will set in motion the
\nprocess of divorce with Indonesia from what is apparently a
\nforced marriage that few countries in the world recognize.<\/p>\n
Since this is an unprecedented vote and is without any
\ncredible survey of voter behavior, it is difficult to predict who
\nwill win the ballot today. There has never been any shortage of
\nclaims though. The proindependence camp, very vocal and with the
\nsympathy if not support of most of the world, is confident it has
\nthe upper hand. The other camp -- called by different names such
\nas pro-Indonesia, proautonomy, prointegration or anti-
\nindependence -- believes that the silent majority of East
\nTimorese are behind it and will cast their votes accordingly.<\/p>\n
It could be a close result, but then again it could be a
\nlandslide victory for either party. Predicting the outcome at
\nthis stage will be a futile exercise and it is best to let it be
\nand find the answer as and when the votes are counted.<\/p>\n
While the result is important, especially as far as the East
\nTimorese people are concerned, the biggest concern for others,
\nincluding Indonesia and the United Nations, is what happens after
\nthe ballot. Many are predicting a return to violence whatever the
\noutcome and are making contingency plans accordingly. The United
\nNations, for example, plans to strengthen its presence in the
\nterritory, whichever way the ballot goes.<\/p>\n
Both the proindependence and pro-Indonesia groups have pledged
\nto abide by the result, but always with a caveat that allows them
\nto go back on their words later on. Since both camps are still
\nfully armed, there is no telling what the losers will do. The
\nproindependence camp has threatened to go back to a guerrilla war
\nif they lose the vote unfairly; the pro-Indonesia camp likewise
\nhas threatened to fight for partitioning of the already divided
\nisland.<\/p>\n
While there is no precedent for today's election, East Timor's
\nmodern history is filled with violence, including that
\nperpetrated by the Indonesian Military. And, in spite of the
\npresence of UN police observers in the ballot process, tension
\nhas risen and has often erupted into violence in recent weeks.<\/p>\n
For what it's worth, this ballot must proceed for the good of
\nthe East Timorese people. This is their election, and Portugal,
\nIndonesia and the United Nations owe them the chance to determine
\ntheir own fate once and for all, and hopefully resolve their
\ndifferences in a democratic and peaceful fashion.<\/p>\n
No outside country, not even Indonesia, should try to
\ninfluence the outcome of this election, and especially the time
\nimmediately following if East Timorese reject the autonomy
\nproposal. Any attempt at interference will simply plunge East
\nTimor back into war. Indonesia made a mistake in 1975 and has
\npaid a very heavy price, not only in terms of lives and money,
\nbut more importantly in terms of its dignity and international
\nstanding. Indonesia cannot afford to make that mistake again and
\nmust resist all temptation to interfere, under whatever pretext,
\nin East Timor.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/its-decision-time-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
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