Is Zhu's China a threat to RI?<\/p>\n
By Budiono Kusumohamidjojo<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): The National People's Congress of the People's
\nRepublic of China has just closed its sessions and has drawn a
\nremarkably strategic resolution.<\/p>\n
On March 16, 1998, the national legislature appointed Li Peng
\nas chairman of the congress. However, more eye-catching is the
\nlegislature's appointment of Zhu Rongji the day after as the
\nfifth prime minister, for the next five years, of the world's
\nmost populous country.<\/p>\n
Zhu has been watched as China's new rising star since the last
\ndecade, when he was still Shanghai's mayor. While President Jiang
\nZemin managed to perform tremendous international breakthroughs
\nin favor of China, Zhu Rongji made great strides by further
\nstrengthening China's economic development.<\/p>\n
Now, having won an absolute majority backed-up mandate from
\n2,890 out of the 2,950 parliamentarians at the congress, he vowed
\nto keep China's economy growing at a pace of 8 percent and to
\nlock inflation at 3 percent.<\/p>\n
The man who is notorious for being short tempered and blunt in
\nhis expressions will put state enterprises on a stern diet. In
\nmost countries, state enterprises are reputed for their
\nconsistently poor performance and for burdening the state budget
\nwith loss-making instead of profit.<\/p>\n
The People's (central) Bank of China, of which Zhu Rongji was
\na former governor, will be given a new role by supervising the
\nmerchant banks as part of his scheme of boosting China into the
\nnext century.<\/p>\n
The step seems to be indispensable since the coming decades
\nwill be marked by striking global competition. The People's
\nLiberation Army, being one of the biggest armed forces in the
\nworld, will be trimmed in terms of personnel as well, in order to
\nenable it to support the country to liberate itself from
\nbackwardness rather than fighting \"paper tigers\" as they used to
\ndo in the past. China's scientific elite has started mentioning
\nits plan to land a Chinese astronaut on the moon.<\/p>\n
What is the relevance of all this to Indonesia?<\/p>\n
We are being stuck by our own vast domestic problems, which
\nrange from scarcity of daily basic necessities and medicines to
\ngrave doubts in the country's institutions.<\/p>\n
We are tensely watching the Army trying to keep peace with our
\nown people. We are suffering an economic stagnation and a wave of
\ndestruction of capital goods, while mass violence among our own
\npeople tends to become the rule of the day.<\/p>\n
We are stiffly buried in a national quandary of our own
\ncreation. As a result, we tend to fail to watch developments in
\nother parts of the world, that of China in particular.<\/p>\n
However, failing to keep a reasonable watch on China's
\ndevelopment will lead us to a mistake that we can only regret
\nlater and forever.<\/p>\n
The late reform patriarch Deng Xiaoping has left behind a
\npragmatic and dynamic system as his invaluable legacy. When he
\npassed away last year, the system had already started to
\ndemonstrate the goal he was aiming at.<\/p>\n
On March 18, 1998, the daily Kompas visualized a comparative
\nprojection between China and Japan. Japan was portrayed as a
\ncountry clearly on a down slope due to its vast and stagnating
\nbureaucratic system, corruption and problems related to a
\nstacking economy.<\/p>\n
Having been lagging behind Japan for decades, particularly in
\neconomic terms, China is now taking a different course, which is
\nan impressive one indeed. There is no doubt that Zhu's economic
\npolicy will have some bitter effects, which, among others, will
\ninclude the more than 11 million state-enterprise workers to be
\nlaid off. Nevertheless, even the affluent societies of the West
\nare chronically suffering from unemployment problems anyway.<\/p>\n
It is beyond doubt that China will be posing Japan with a
\nmassive challenge within the next five years. Given that the
\nZhongnanhai, the Chinese central government circle in Beijing
\nthat used to be ruled by a gerontology, we may even expect that
\nthe economic czar Zhu, now 69, will direct the current course of
\nthe country for another decade.<\/p>\n
If Japan will have its hands full with its great neighbor,
\nwhat about Indonesia?<\/p>\n
Although Indonesia is not directly exposed as a proximate
\nneighbor to China, as is the case with Japan, global economy and
\ntelecommunications will not place Indonesia in a better protected
\nposition either.<\/p>\n
Distance is an irrelevant issue in a world that is becoming
\nmore and more knitted into an interdependent market. The
\nsociopolitical and the monetary-economic crisis now plaguing
\nIndonesia is placing the country in a more difficult position to
\nanticipate and to adequately respond to any additional external
\nchallenges.<\/p>\n
The crash of the Indonesian rupiah is making countries as
\nfaraway as the U.S. and Germany nervous about the possibility of
\na new Asian political crisis. Such nervousness is well understood
\nsince a crisis plaguing a country that is as big and as strategic
\nas Indonesia would result in a domino effect and destabilize the
\nglobal market.<\/p>\n
Still, Indonesia would belong to those who suffer most in such
\na troubled market. In such a position, it would be most difficult
\nas well for the country to cope with the challenge resulting from
\nthe reform leaps taken by Zhu, who is renowned for his efficient
\npragmatism.<\/p>\n
Having been disgraced for two decades under the Mao-era, and
\npurged as a rightist, he seems to know no taboos even within the
\nframe of a socialistic reform. While Beijing shocked the world
\ncommunity with the students' massacre backed by Li Peng in June
\n1989, Zhu managed to convince the students to go home and keep
\nShanghai peaceful.<\/p>\n
The challenge Indonesia will have to face as a result of Zhu's
\nelection as the new Chinese prime minister is manifold, despite
\nthe high probability that it will grasp more the economic sector
\nof international relations rather than directly the military and
\nsecurity sector.<\/p>\n
To date, China has everything it needs to become a new
\nsuperpower. It was Deng Xiaoping who had made it understood quite
\nclearly by the Chinese ruling class that it needs to have a
\nstrong economy in order to be a real world power.<\/p>\n
Sometime in the near future, Indonesia will have to deal with
\nChina as a new superpower rather than merely having a headache
\nabout how to compete in the global market. Zhu, with his team,
\nconsisting of Dai Xianglong, 54, the new governor of the People's
\nBank of China, Xiang Huaicheng, 59, the new finance minister, and
\nTang Jiaxuan, 60, the new foreign minister, will strive to
\nstrengthen China's competitiveness.<\/p>\n
Moreover, Deng Xiaoping seemed to have not only nurtured a
\ngroup of reliable cadres for the country's leadership, but he
\nalso secured a mechanism for a well-controlled succession. After
\nJiang Zemin proved his capacity without the presence of Deng
\nXiaoping, now, Zhu obviously will do his utmost to merge Chinese
\nsocialism with the global market system.<\/p>\n
That is exactly what Deng Xiaoping meant with his doctrine of
\none state with two systems, regardless of whether they are
\ncompatible or contradictory, which truly reflects a pragmatism
\nthat gives no room for ideological taboos.<\/p>\n
Prof. Anwar Nasution from the University of Indonesia
\nregretted that Indonesia has lost at least four months by
\nhesitating with measures to reform our economy.<\/p>\n
Nasution does not seem to be alone with his views. It is
\nbeyond doubt that many Indonesian intellectuals and professionals
\nshare his conviction that we have to come back to logical
\nreasoning and set aside any kind of covert vested interest.<\/p>\n
The promulgation of a decree on Saturday, March 21, 1998, by
\nthe finance minister to subject foreign currency purchases to a 5
\npercent tax, and its revocation on Monday, March 23, 1998, the
\nday which it was supposed to come into effect, demonstrates our
\nill preparedness to cope with our own domestic problems, let
\nalone to deal with a challenge to compete against a country that
\nis on its way to becoming a superpower not just in Asian regional
\nterms, but also in the global context.<\/p>\n
It is ridiculous that we look for support from Japan in our
\nefforts to overcome our difficulties, while Japan has its own
\ndomestic headache and will now have to think about new terms as
\nto how it may reach a sustainable modus vivendi with China.<\/p>\n
Just like Deng Xiaoping did two decade ago, we need to regain
\nour own cool head and consider what reasonable pragmatic steps we
\nhave to take.<\/p>\n
Indonesia has an abundant workforce and is rich in natural
\nresources. What we are missing seems to be a clear mind and a
\nstrong will to come to concerted efforts fully in the interest of
\nthe nation.<\/p>\n
The writer is a legal consultant and lecturer in legal
\nphilosophy based in Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Window: The challenge Indonesia will have to face as a result of
\nZhu's election as the new Chinese prime minister is manifold,
\ndespite the high probability that it will grasp more the economic
\nsector of international relations rather than directly the
\nmilitary and security sector.<\/p>",
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