US President Donald Trump has officially declared the start of a new\n\u201cgolden era\u201d in the Middle East following the announcement of a\nceasefire with Iran on Tuesday. The ongoing war has, at least for now,\nbeen temporarily halted, offering the possibility that \u201cthe fighting\nwill not resume in the near future,\u201d although political predictions from\nthe White House are always fraught with risks.<\/p>\n
Chairman of the Presidium of Russia\u2019s Foreign and Defence Policy\nCouncil, Fyodor Lukyanov, views this pause as crucial for Washington.\nAccording to him, a prolonged war would heighten risks for all parties,\nparticularly the US itself, which has always felt uncomfortable with\nlong-term strategic uncertainty.<\/p>\n
\u201cRegardless of all the bombastic rhetoric from the US government,\nAmerica has always felt very uncomfortable with prolonged uncertainty\nand strategic risks,\u201d Lukyanov stated in an opinion piece on Russia\nToday, quoted on Friday (10\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is one thing to threaten, but quite another to bear the\nconsequences when those threats fail,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Although the precise terms of this ceasefire remain unclear and may\nnot yet be fully agreed upon, Lukyanov highlights the stark political\nreality. He asserts that when confronted with steadfast resistance, the\nUS opts to step back.<\/p>\n
\u201cNot a single one of the major demands set at the outset of the\noperation has been met,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump\u2019s demands in capital letters for \u2018UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!\u2019\nfrom Iran now appear more like political theatre than a strategic\ndoctrine,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
\u201cYet behind the social media drama, something more rational has\nprevailed in Washington: when pressure fails, it is better to retreat\nthan to escalate into a situation no longer under your control,\u201d\nLukyanov remarked.<\/p>\n
He also noted that the high-fever rhetoric prior to the ceasefire\nserved a specific purpose for the White House. It allowed Washington to\nclaim that Tehran had \u201cblinked\u201d or capitulated, while creating a sense\nof impending disaster so that any pause in fighting could be sold as\nrelief.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe White House will now try to present this restraint as a\nvictory,\u201d concluded Lukyanov, who is also Editor-in-Chief of the\nmagazine Russia in Global Affairs.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s Resilience and the Failure of US-Israel Strategy?<\/p>\n
This conflict is regarded as a historical milestone in the broader\ntransformation of the international system, though not the final chapter\nin the Middle East struggle. Iran is seen to have demonstrated\nextraordinary resilience, shattering the core assumptions behind the\nUS-Israel campaign that strong attacks would suffice to topple the\nIslamic Republic.<\/p>\n
\u201cTehran\u2019s response was not spectacular in a conventional military\nsense, but it was effective. Iran expanded the theatre of tension and\nsignalled that the costs of escalation would not be limited to military\ntargets. This forced its adversaries to reckon not only with Iranian\nretaliation but also with the fragility of the broader regional system,\u201d\nLukyanov explained.<\/p>\n
In his view, the endurance of the US and its regional partners is\nlimited, while Iran has historically shown far greater staying power.\nMoreover, what is termed the \u2018Axis of Resistance\u2019 has proven more\ndurable than many assumed, with pro-Iran forces in Lebanon, Yemen, and\nIraq remaining significant strategic factors.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe broader efforts to neutralise Iranian influence have backfired.\nIran has emerged bloodied but standing tall. Even if Tehran\u2019s claims\nthat any resolution must occur on its terms are partly negotiation\ntactics, one thing is clear: Iran\u2019s regional weight has not diminished\nas Washington and Western Jerusalem desired,\u201d Lukyanov emphasised, who\nalso serves as Research Director of the Valdai International Discussion\nClub.<\/p>\n
The Future of Gulf Monarchies and Israel\u2019s Position?<\/p>\n
Negotiations with Tehran are now seen as inevitable, but this leaves\nmajor questions about Iran\u2019s internal ambitions and nuclear programme.\nFor the wider region, the implications are profound, particularly for\nthe Gulf monarchies.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Gulf monarchies have gained a sobering experience. There will be\nno return to the old comfortable formula where security could be\noutsourced entirely to Washington in exchange for money and loyalty.\nThat arrangement, which has underpinned the region since the Cold War,\nhas been severely shaken,\u201d Lukyanov clarified.<\/p>\n
Individually, the Gulf states are predicted to intensify their search\nfor new partners such as China, South Asia, Russia, and Western Europe\nto safeguard their interests. While they will not tolerate unchecked\nIranian dominance in the Persian Gulf, their policies will become more\ncomplex, involving Iran where necessary.<\/p>\n
\u201cIsrael, meanwhile, has not achieved its proclaimed goals. No matter\nhow loudly victory is proclaimed, the fundamental strategic reality\nremains unchanged. The Iranian factor persists. It has not been\neliminated or sufficiently weakened for Israel to feel truly secure,\u201d he\nadded.<\/p>\n
The End of American Omnipotence?<\/p>\n
At the domestic US level, Trump\u2019s success hinges on economic\nstability and oil markets. If markets stabilise, the White House will\ninsist that disaster was averted thanks to Trump\u2019s leadership. However,\nthe larger lesson from these events is about the limits of American\npower.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe United States remains very strong. Its military reach, financial\ninfluence, and ability to shape events are still formidable. But none of\nit is unlimited. America can still influence outcomes but can no longer\nimpose its will at any cost.\u201d<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/is-us-power-really-reaching-its-limits-unable-to-win-a-war-against-iran-1775796658", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }