Is the military the winner?<\/p>\n
By Susanto Pudjomartono<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Exit Abdurrahman Wahid. Enter Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri. The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) fired Gus
\nDur (Abdurrahman) last week and elected Megawati as the fifth
\npresident of the Republic of Indonesia to succeed him.<\/p>\n
Does it mean that the Assembly and the legislature are the
\nwinners in the battle against Gus Dur? Or is Megawati the winner,
\ngetting the position that she rightly earned 21 months ago, but
\nlost at the last minute because of the Islam-oriented Axis
\nForce's plot to foil her?<\/p>\n
From a political perspective, can we say Golkar is the party
\nthat most benefited from Megawati's election, for certainly it
\nhas gained a respite, at least temporarily, from the public wrath
\nthat demands its dissolution? And did the United Development
\nParty (PPP) at last win a consolation prize with the election of
\nits chairman Hamzah Haz as vice president?<\/p>\n
Or, are Gus Dur, the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and the National
\nAwakening Party (PKB), Gus Dur's main political supporters, the
\nlosers in this struggle? For obviously in the long run, wouldn't
\nthe public question the capability of anyone from these
\norganizations to lead a government, for its value system has
\nproved to be incompatible with democracy?<\/p>\n
One can also question whether the reform movement is the
\nbiggest loser because it lost its momentum due to the political
\nturmoil during Gus Dur's 21-month reign.<\/p>\n
But, has not democracy and common sense at last prevailed with
\nthe democratic election of Megawati and Hamzah Haz, despite
\ncriticism that somehow the battle was only among the politicians
\nand that the common people were mere spectators?<\/p>\n
Whatever the answer, suddenly the nation seems to be breathing
\na lot easier. And there is an air of high expectation and hope.
\nEverywhere people feel that gone are the days of political
\nbickering that brought the nation to the brink of a second
\neconomic crisis and national disintegration. There is hope that
\nnow is the time to heal wounds and start the national recovery
\nprogram.<\/p>\n
Yet, one question lingers: Is the military -- mainly the army
\n-- the clear winner in this battle? And will this victory have
\nsome sort of political implication in the future?<\/p>\n
Thanks to its timely repositioning, resoluteness and firm
\nleadership, the military has emerged from an almost political
\nnothingness a year ago into (once again) a formidable political
\nforce.<\/p>\n
Two years ago, thanks mostly to Gus Dur's democratic drive,
\nthe military was forced to define a so-called "new paradigm" that
\nleft its social and political role behind. From then on the
\nIndonesian Military (TNI) agreed to remain a defense force, with
\nits representation in the legislature to be terminated by 2009.<\/p>\n
But, ironically it was Gus Dur himself who pushed the TNI back
\nto center stage. It began early this year when he started toying
\nwith the idea of imposing a state of civil emergency to stop the
\nlegislature from unseating him.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur believed that the Constitution empowered him with the
\nstatus of "supreme commander of the armed forces" that would give
\nhim a free hand to do whatever he pleased with the military. This
\nturned out to be his biggest mistake.<\/p>\n
It is quite true that until last year the military had been
\ndemoralized and in complete disarray. It failed to solve
\nconflicts in Maluku, Aceh, Irian Jaya while communal clashes and
\nlawlessness were on the rise nationwide, not to mention the
\npublic outcry to bring to court military officers suspected of
\nbeing involved in human rights violations.<\/p>\n
As if adding insult to injury, Gus Dur threatened military
\nleaders that they either support his plan to declare a state of
\nemergency or be ready to be replaced by more accommodative
\ngenerals. It was the last straw for the military leadership and
\nthey swore they could not swallow anymore "humiliations".<\/p>\n
The credit for the military's revival must go to Army Chief of
\nStaff Gen. Endiartono Sutarto. Starting from the end of January
\nhe organized meetings among military top brass to study the
\nsituation. Sources revealed that the general feeling among them
\nwas a kind of restlessness since they consider themselves the
\n"most trusted vanguard of the nation" and that the country was at
\nstake.<\/p>\n
The biggest question among them is the future role of the
\nmilitary. Should it remain outside practical politics, or should
\nit, if the situation demands, allow itself to engage in any
\nactivity to save the nation?<\/p>\n
Surprisingly, almost all 30-something generals who attended
\nthe meeting opted to resist any attempt to lure the military back
\ninto politics. In line with this thought, they saw that Gus Dur's
\nefforts to influence the military may undermine this new stance.
\nThey also took note of Gus Dur's erratic way of governing, by
\nrepeatedly issuing the same threats from time to time, which
\nbecame a source of tension, leading them to conclude that Gus Dur
\nwas the problem, not the solution.<\/p>\n
Yet, they also agreed that to be able to stand firm the
\nmilitary should unite. But they are aware that aside from
\n"military members within the structure", meaning the officers who
\nhold office, the fact remains that there are also "military
\nmembers outside the structure", a term referring to active
\nofficers without positions. At present, for example, there are
\nthree active four star generals who have no position.<\/p>\n
According to sources, to preempt the possibility that Gus Dur
\nmay have tried to pit them against each other, all high-ranking
\nofficers from both within and outside the structure pledged to
\nunite and to stand together. Gen. Sutarto also held meetings with
\nretired generals who fully supported him. Thus, within a few
\nmonths Gen. Sutarto succeeded, to a certain extent, in
\nsolidifying not just the Army but also the military.<\/p>\n
It was against this united force that Gus Dur had to deal with
\nwhen he repeatedly and unsuccessfully tried to get military
\nsupport for his declaration of a state of emergency. The extent
\nof military unity was none better shown then when a few hours
\nbefore Gus Dur's declaration of a state of emergency Gen. Johny
\nLumintang rejected Gus Dur's offer to be nominated as military
\ndeputy commander in chief.<\/p>\n
Hence, there is no doubt that Gus Dur's failure to gain
\nsupport from the military, plus his unsuccessful attempts to
\nsecure the police force to back him in the plan to impose a state
\nof emergency, was the key to his downfall.<\/p>\n
The question now is, with the certainty of IOU notes in its
\nhands, will the military play these cards to secure some kind of
\ngains from President Megawati? Or will it use them to get a
\nbetter bargaining position in future deals? There is even
\nspeculation that Megawati may fall into the hands of the
\nmilitary, which will then make her its puppet.<\/p>\n
Judging from her past record, taciturn as she is, it is very
\nunlikely that in the future Megawati will be influenced, or even
\ncontrolled, by the military. The way the military leaders
\nconsulted Megawati in anything they planned to do during the
\nshowdown with Gus Dur indicates otherwise.<\/p>\n
In a recent conversation, Megawati assured that there was no
\nway the military would play a political role in her future
\ngovernment. She said that Indonesia needed a strong armed forces,
\nbut that it would remain a defense force which would guard the
\nnation's unity.<\/p>\n
Will the military be satisfied with this role? Although it is
\ntoo early to predict, there is every indication that the current
\nmilitary leadership would prefer to stay away from politics.
\nSolid as they are now, they still have huge problems. Public
\ndistrust of the military is just too strong. It also has yet to
\nanswer questions such as: Why has there not been any satisfactory
\naccountability to past human rights abuses and violations
\ncommitted by military members? Why do some of them still behave
\nas they did in the past, before the military's new paradigm?<\/p>\n
Yes, one can say that the military has come out victorious in
\nthe battle against Gus Dur, but it still has to engage in a
\nbattle against itself to prove it is sincere and what it says is
\ntrue. It could be a long, long fight.<\/p>\n
The writer is chief editor at The Jakarta Post.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/is-the-military-the-winner-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }