Is Indonesia really ready for the 2004 general elections?<\/p>\n
Daniel Lindgren, Associate Director TNS Indonesia, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Still recovering from the aftermath of the Bali bombings, 2003
\nsaw Indonesia faced with SARS and new terrorist attacks.
\nConsidering the circumstances 2003 has not been such a bad year
\nafter all. The outlook for 2004 is moderately positive but the
\nworld will continue to watch Indonesia as it faces up to yet
\nanother big challenge, the upcoming General Election.<\/p>\n
The 2004 election will be a unique undertaking never before
\nseen in Indonesia. In addition to the General Election, the
\ncountry will hold its first ever, direct presidential election.
\nThe two stage presidential election is very likely to go to a
\nsecond round unless of course a presidential candidate is able to
\ncapture 50 percent majority in the first round of votes.<\/p>\n
That is highly unlikely given the current sentiments that
\nexist in Indonesia. So the top two candidates will battle it out
\nin a second round of voting. Some question whether Indonesia is
\nready for this. But as a matter of fact, this is what the vast
\nmajority of the people want as indicated by past opinion
\nresearch. The constitution was amended accordingly.<\/p>\n
One of the developments that can be seen is that Indonesians
\nare taking a more active role in politics. More Indonesians now
\ncompared to before are aware of National Level Institutions such
\nas DPR and MPR and the President's Reform Agenda. For example,
\nthe vast majority of Indonesians do hold an opinion as to whether
\nthey are happy with law enforcement and decentralization through
\nlocal autonomy.<\/p>\n
This is encouraging despite the many issues surrounding the
\ncoming election. So whilst security certainly is an issue that
\nmany fear could become a problem, participation in the 2004
\ngeneral election is likely to be very high.<\/p>\n
A recent survey carried out by TNS show that no less that 96
\npercent of eligible voters in the three cities of Jakarta,
\nSurabaya and Bandung said they intend to vote in 2004. Whilst not
\nrepresentative of Indonesia as a whole, that is a promising
\nnumber. This means that the electorate is indeed thinking about
\nthe political situation in this country and they clearly care
\nabout the nations future leadership. No doubt that if people care
\nthen high participation can be expected.<\/p>\n
In the same survey, those who voted in 1999 were asked whether
\nthey would vote for the same party. It turns out that only 28
\npercent of past voters said they would vote for the same party.
\nAnother 18 percent confessed they would vote for a different
\nparty and the remaining 54 percent were not sure at this stage.<\/p>\n
This suggests that there could be a big swing in voter
\npreferences. It is of course too early to say which party will
\nbenefit from this swing and who will suffer but it does send a
\nsignal that a large proportion of the electorate are already
\nconsidering alternatives. Some would argue it shows that a
\ngeneral negative sentiment may be looming.<\/p>\n
Whilst such a conclusion is consistent with recent polls
\nshowing increasing dissatisfaction with the country's leaders, as
\nwell as the performance of representative bodies in terms of law
\nmaking and governance, this can not be implied directly. It could
\nsimply mean that some voters are less than loyal. The 2004
\nelection will certainly be a challenge for the current
\ngovernment, for political parties, the electorate itself and not
\nthe least, the General Election Commission (KPU).<\/p>\n
An already debated issue for the coming election is the
\nintroduction of a new election system and to what extent the
\nelectorate will be able to vote correctly. Early trials have
\nshown rather poor compliance with more than one in every two
\nvotes being invalid. An added dimension to this is that many
\neligible voters don't know, at this stage, that there will be a
\nseparate presidential election.<\/p>\n
The recent survey carried out by TNS showed that just over one
\nquarter (26 percent) of the electorate are aware that there will
\nbe a separate presidential election. This may be a conservative
\nestimate given that the survey was carried out in the major
\ncities. In rural areas, where 58 percent of the total population
\nlive, awareness is likely to be lower.<\/p>\n
To help raise awareness, the Government has already launched a
\njoint nationwide awareness campaign together with the KPU.
\nRaising awareness may seem like a rather straightforward affair
\nbut could turn out to be rather challenging when considering the
\nlow media consumption in some of the more remote parts of
\nIndonesia. A perhaps even more challenging task will be to
\neducate the electorate on how the new electoral system actually
\nworks.<\/p>\n
With over 20 political parties expected to contest the
\nelection, ballot papers are likely to be long and complicated.
\nThe risk of confusion is high. The order in which parties appear
\non the ballot paper will be another interesting debate to follow.
\nFortunately there are dedicated NGOs who work with various
\nstakeholders to help in the process. The conduct of research in
\nthe form of opinion polls that highlight the issues at hand is of
\ncourse one important element in this process.<\/p>\n
In this vein, the TNS survey also investigated factors
\nperceived to have most influence on the Indonesian economy. In
\nother words, what are some of the issues that the electorate is
\nconcerned about and would like to see improve?<\/p>\n
In the recent past, the number one concern has been the high
\nprice of basic goods. However, the issue found to be of most
\nconcern in this survey was corruption. No less than 82 percent of
\nthe 1009 men and women surveyed felt this was an issue that
\nimpacted negatively on the Indonesian economy.<\/p>\n
The second issue of most concern was unemployment with 61
\npercent followed by high prices at 57 percent. Government
\nmismanagement came forth with 46 percent and in fifth place came
\nsecurity with 37 percent. The issue of declining foreign
\ninvestment, often quoted as a pressing issue for Indonesia, was
\nonly selected by 17 percent. Again, although these issues may not
\nbe representative of all Indonesians they highlight potential
\nplatforms for political policy formulation.<\/p>\n
No doubt the election will bring many challenges and many will
\npredict uncertainty and possibly instability. However, it seems
\npossible that the electorate has already factored in this
\nuncertainly, so perhaps there is an underlying hope that things
\nmay improve. People may be dissatisfied but the election will
\nprovide for an opportunity to bring about change.<\/p>\n
Of course, when people don't care they may decide not to
\nparticipate and hence don't vote for any party or candidate. They
\ndon't take a stand because they don't feel it is important. But
\nthat does not seem to be the case. The electorate will
\nparticipate and they do have \"real\" concerns. As long as people
\nknow how to vote and have the means to participate, they will
\nturn up. They may not be ready today, but there is still time.<\/p>\n
Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) is a market information group<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/is-indonesia-really-ready-for-the-2004-general-elections-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }