Is 'China threat' still haunting Asia?<\/p>\n
By Rizal Sukma<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Recently, Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir
\nMohamad declared that his country no longer sees China as a
\npolitical or military threat. Instead, he regarded China as an
\neconomic opportunity. According to Mahathir, China should be seen
\nas a partner in the pursuit of regional peace and prosperity.<\/p>\n
He also said that nobody nowadays would be interested in
\nentertaining the view that China was bent on exporting its
\ncommunist ideology. Therefore, he called for a fundamental review
\nof the so-called \"China threat\" in the Asia-Pacific region (The
\nJakarta Post, Jan. 24, 1995).<\/p>\n
Mahathir's call is in fact not new since many scholars have
\nraised this issue on many occasions. However, as far as China-
\nSoutheast Asia relations are concerned, it can be said that
\nMahathir's remark was a \"great leap forward.\" It shows a
\nsignificant shift in Malaysia's strategic perception which was
\npreviously imbued with suspicion towards China.<\/p>\n
If the remark was genuine and not a polite diplomatic
\nrhetoric, then it shows a sincere hope from a Southeast Asian
\nleader that Sino-Southeast Asian relations should be framed into
\na new, better psychological state of mind.<\/p>\n
The most important question, then, is how should the question
\nof the \"China threat\" be fundamentally reviewed as suggested by
\nMahathir? Such a question not only begs a critical examination of
\nthe nature of the \"China threat\" itself, but also requires the
\npromotion of greater transparency in China's intentions and
\nobjectives towards Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
The ill-defined \"China threat\" concept and uncertainties about
\nChina's future intentions among Southeast Asian countries have
\nfor a long time complicated China's relationships with regional
\ncountries.<\/p>\n
Up to now, the debate on the nature of the \"China threat\" has
\nnot been satisfactorily resolved. Two opposing views are readily
\ndiscernible when it comes to the question whether a strong China
\nwould pose a threat to the region.<\/p>\n
One view strongly maintains that as China grows strong, it
\nwould pose a serious danger to the region, both in terms of
\nmilitary and economic threat. The proponents of this view believe
\nthat China would never alter its ambition to dominate all aspects
\nof life in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
To support their view, the proponents of the \"China threat
\ntheory\" cite historical evidence to suggest that in the past,
\nChina had attempted hegemonic practices by supporting \"war of
\nnational liberations\" of the communist parties in this regions.
\nOnly the discrepancy between China's capability and its ambiguous
\ngoal failed the Chinese strategy. Therefore, the argument goes,
\nif a weak China had tried to dominate the region, then a strong
\nChina would no doubt give another try to accomplish what it could
\nnot do in the past.<\/p>\n
China's involvement in territorial disputes in the South China
\nSea stands as another, more contemporary, argument put forward by
\nthe proponents of the \"China threat theory\" in warning the region
\nof the Chinese danger. The issue provides a convenient ground
\nupon which the judgment that China is a country likely to resort
\nto force in handling disputes with other countries can be
\nfounded.<\/p>\n
The South China Sea was a scene of armed clash between China
\nand Vietnam in 1988. Based on this evidence, it is argued that to
\ndefend its interests China might try another military blow to
\nstrengthen its claim in the dispute.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, there is a growing body of opinion which
\nargues that China is no longer a threat to the region. This view
\nargues that a reform-oriented China, as it is now, would be
\ncommitted to establishing a peaceful environment in Southeast
\nAsia.<\/p>\n
As China strives for economic development at home, good and
\ncooperative relations with Southeast Asian countries would be the
\nmain priority of China's foreign policy. Moreover, the proponents
\nof this view argue, China's integration into the web of
\nmultilateral economic cooperation would strengthen \"the complex
\ninterdependence\" between China and the region. Theoretically,
\ncomplex interdependence would reduce the opportunity for war, and
\nincrease the chance for peace.<\/p>\n
Based on such a line of thinking, the second view maintains
\nthat China is indeed an economic asset. It believes that greater
\ncooperation, without suspicion, between China and Southeast Asian
\ncountries would be in the interests of both sides.<\/p>\n
Recent surges in economic exchanges between China and Asian
\ncountries, for example, are often cited as clear evidence that
\nChina and Southeast Asia are in fact bound to foster their common
\neconomic interests. If Southeast Asian countries want to see
\nChina remains committed to a peaceful foreign policy, the
\nargument goes, they should promote such cooperation further.
\nMahathir's call is perhaps based on such an assessment and that
\nto alienate China is not a viable option.<\/p>\n
Such differing views are not easily reconciled. For many in
\nSoutheast Asia, history is still regarded as a useful guideline
\nin dealing with China. However, as Mahathir suggested, it should
\nbe noted that clinging to past will not always help the path
\ntowards a better future.<\/p>\n
An excessive suspicion of China on the part of Southeast Asian
\ncountries would hamper positive efforts to establish closer
\nrelations between the two. China is no doubt part of the Asian
\ncommunity and therefore, it should be dragged into the region's
\nconstructive activities.<\/p>\n
From the Chinese side, if it really wants to foster peaceful
\nrelations with Southeast Asia, a greater transparency is
\nrequired. Many in Southeast capitals have not had a clear idea of
\nwhere China is heading. China's military build-up is one, but a
\nsignificant issue in this regard. A clearer articulation of its
\nposition with regard to the idea of greater military transparency
\nand cooperation in the South China Sea disputes will greatly
\nenhance various Confidence-Building Measures is the region.<\/p>\n
If these basic issues can be dealt with in a more open dialog
\nby China and Southeast Asian countries, then the coming of a
\nsuspicion-free relationship between both sides would not be too
\nfar away.<\/p>\n
The changing international relations after the end of the Cold
\nWar requires a similar change in Southeast Asian leaders thinking
\non old issues. Here, any call for a review in China-Southeast
\nAsia relations is indeed timely. However, such a call should also
\nbe extended to the Chinese side. A unilateral review from
\nSoutheast Asia countries alone would not help improve Sino-
\nSoutheast Asian relations which carry enormous historical
\nburdens.<\/p>\n
Mahathir's recent \"positive\" assessment of China should be
\ntaken into consideration by other Southeast Asian leaders.<\/p>\n
The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
\nInternational Studies, Jakarta, and a PhD candidate at the London
\nSchool of Economics and Political Science, Britain.<\/p>",
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