Is a missile-defense system coming to SE Asia?<\/p>\n
Kavi Chongkittavorn
\nThe Nation
\nAsia News Network\/Bangkok<\/p>\n
On the day that U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for arms
\ncontrol Steve Rademaker was talking about the U.S. ballistic
\nmissile-defense system to an ASEAN Regional Forum seminar in
\nBangkok this past weekend, on the other side of the world it was
\nannounced that Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the International
\nAtomic Energy Agency, had got this year's Nobel Peace prize.<\/p>\n
The two events highlight the importance of the threat of
\nproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, both at the
\nregional and global level. Rademaker surprised the ARF delegates
\nwith his detailed briefings on the U.S. deployment of nine
\noperational national missile-defense systems and 12 more to come
\nin the future. It was the first time the U.S. had provided such
\nextensive information on its missile-defense programs at an ARF
\nmeeting. The ARF participants, especially China, reciprocated
\nwith a willingness to discuss the pros and cons of various
\nmissile-defense systems.<\/p>\n
The U.S. delegation stressed at the outset that the system was
\nnot aimed at China or Russia. The threat of weapons of mass
\ndestruction comes from other countries, which the United States
\ndid not name. In the past, the U.S. has expressed concern over
\nthe nuclear capability of North Korea and has effectively sought
\nto reduce it. Washington seeks to prevent Pyongyang from getting
\nhold of the uranium and the technology needed to make nuclear or
\ndirty bombs.<\/p>\n
In Asia, Japan has already invested about US$5 billion (Bt205
\nbillion) in cooperating with the U.S. in missile-defense systems.
\nCertainly Japan's main missile threat comes from North Korea.
\nPyongyang's repeated test-firing of the medium-range Taepodong
\nmissile across the Sea of Japan has rattled Japanese defense
\npolicy-makers into looking for new ways to counter these growing
\nthreats.<\/p>\n
Russia and China, two major nuclear powers, raised questions
\nabout the effectiveness of all missile-defense systems. They
\nprefer diplomacy and dialogue as ways to deter the proliferation
\nof nuclear weapons. China has been active in persuading North
\nKorea to \"denuclearize\" its arsenal in the six-party talks.
\nRussia is also engaging Iran in a similar way, urging Teheran to
\nallow outside inspection and comply with international standards
\nand practices.<\/p>\n
Moreover, for China, the missile-defense system means more
\nthan just deterrence, as the destruction of weapons in the sky
\nwould generate debris that could cause untold damage to people
\nand the environment.<\/p>\n
Within Southeast Asia, only Singapore and Thailand have not
\nrejected the idea of missile-defense systems. Other key ASEAN
\ncountries -- such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia -- have
\nopposed the systems, which they argue would lead to proliferation
\nand a greater threat from weapons of mass destruction rather than
\nlimiting them.<\/p>\n
They view the U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-ballistic Missile
\nTreaty as an indication that it does not want to restrict its
\nnuclear response options. Thailand's view is that the ABM Treaty
\nis a cornerstone in maintaining strategic balance and controlling
\nmissile proliferation.<\/p>\n
The U.S., the United Kingdom and France have repeatedly turned
\ndown ASEAN's overture to accede to the Treaty of Southeast Asian
\nNuclear Weapons Free Zone, while Asian nuclear powers China,
\nIndia and Pakistan have expressed willingness to join. But
\ntangible progress has not yet been made.<\/p>\n
Singapore, the only ASEAN country to join the Proliferation
\nSecurity Initiative (PSI), and Thailand share a similar view that
\nthe missile-defense systems serve a useful purpose in deterring
\nnuclear attacks, especially from rogue states and non-state
\nplayers such as terrorists.<\/p>\n
During the visit of U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice to
\nPhuket in July, Thailand planned to join the PSI as part and
\nparcel of its overall effort to curb WMD proliferation in the
\nregion. That effort includes the Container Security Initiative,
\nwhich it joined in June 2003. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
\ndelayed the decision on the PSI and instead adopted \"a wait-and-
\nsee attitude\" due to the worsening crisis in the South and the
\nlack of broader ASEAN support.<\/p>\n
Thai authorities are concerned that the country could be used
\nas a transit point for fission materials to third countries by
\nill-intentioned groups. In June 2003, the authorities intercepted
\n30 kilograms of highly radioactive Cesium137, a critical
\ncomponent in the making of a dirty bomb, in Bangkok. The seizure
\nraised alarm about the possibility of illicit trafficking of this
\ndangerous material.<\/p>\n
For the record, Thailand does have a history of good
\ncompliance with international agreements on non-proliferation and
\nthe peaceful uses of nuclear power, such as the Treaty on the
\nNon-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); the Convention on the
\nProhibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use
\nof Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction; the Convention on
\nthe Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling of
\nBiological and Toxic Weapons and on Their Destruction; the
\nSafeguards Agreement; and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban
\nTreaty.<\/p>\n
To many countries in the region, the NPT is considered a
\n\"double standard\" treaty since it recognizes those countries that
\nalready posses nuclear weapons as the \"status quo\", while banning
\nothers from having such weapons.<\/p>\n
At present as a non-nuclear state, Thailand, which signed and
\nratified the NPT in 1972, is actively seeking access to nuclear
\ntechnology and energy for peaceful use as part of the country's
\nfuture energy security strategy. Nobody knows if it will have an
\nimpact on Thailand's firm policy not to develop or proliferate
\nany kind of weapons of mass destruction or their delivery
\nsystems.<\/p>",
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