The war between Iran and the United States (US) and Israel is bad\nnews for the world, causing many people globally to suffer once again\nafter being hit by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n
Not all wars have a winner. But every war at least has one losing\nside, and if this is the big one, the ceasefire marking the end of the\nwar in Iran means the biggest loser is Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
This conflict has thwarted his main war aims and exposed the\nshallowness of his vision for a new way of wielding Uncle Sam\u2019s\npower.<\/p>\n
This peace is very fragile. The US and Iran cannot agree on whether\nthe ceasefire covers Lebanon, which has been so heavily attacked by\nIsrael that the threat to a broader ceasefire seems deliberate.<\/p>\n
They are debating how Iran should open the Strait of Hormuz, a US\nprerequisite for negotiations, and their negotiating positions are so\ndifferent that they cannot even agree on what plan they will discuss in\nIslamabad this weekend.<\/p>\n
The best reason to think Trump will not go back to war is that he now\nunderstands he should never have started it. His reckless and disgusting\nposts threatening to destroy Iran seem like an attempt to hide his\nretreat behind a facade of defence.<\/p>\n
He knows that renewed war would panic markets and that after touting\na \u201cGolden Age\u201d in the Middle East, that four-dimensional chess player\nrisks looking foolish.<\/p>\n
Iran also has reasons to restrain itself. Its leaders continue to be\nkilled. Although they do not care much about their citizens, including\nthe thousands killed in the war, the massive destruction of the power\ngrid and transportation would make the country harder to govern.<\/p>\n
They also want the lifting of sanctions. The regime also feels that\ntime is on its side at the negotiating table. The US cannot constantly\nplace its troops on alert for attack. If war breaks out again, it will\nbe because Iran is too reckless.<\/p>\n
Therefore, the most likely outcome is an injured Iranian regime\nclinging to power and seeking maximum goals in negotiations. Iran has no\nnavy or air force and has lost and expended many of its missiles and\ndrones.<\/p>\n
To make more, they must face the reality that their economy has been\nin ruins for years due to more than 21,000 US and Israeli attacks.<\/p>\n
Trump calls it a great victory. However, it does not look like a\ngreat victory compared to the minimal progress in meeting the three most\nimportant goals of this war, namely making the Middle East safer and\nmore prosperous by taming Iran, overthrowing the regime, or stopping\nIran from becoming a nuclear power forever.<\/p>\n
The war has damaged regional security. Before the war began, Israel\nhad partially dismantled Iran\u2019s proxy militia network. However, Iran has\nnow built new sources of influence, by attacking Gulf countries and\nblocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is attempting to\ncharge a fee for use of the strait.<\/p>\n
Trump has even considered sharing that revenue. Gulf countries and\ntheir customers may be able to refuse this insult to freedom of\nnavigation. But fierce fighting will occur in the future.<\/p>\n
Even after oil producers build new pipelines to bypass the Gulf, Iran\nwill still be able to attack critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n
Gulf countries, which market themselves as oases of calm, must ask\nwhether they can continue to rely on the US or whether they should\nrethink their security by doing more themselves, even seeking deals with\nIran.<\/p>\n
The regime remains in power, despite Trump\u2019s weak claims that he\ntoppled it. He may hope that the Iranian people will soon rise up\nagainst their oppressors so he can claim credit.<\/p>\n
That may happen, but it seems less likely now than before the war,\nwhen the regime was more unpopular than ever in its 47-year history.<\/p>\n
With Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ill, the regime faces a dangerous\ntransition to a new generation. The war has realised that transition,\ncrowning Ali\u2019s son, Mojtaba, as leader.<\/p>\n
Unlike Ali, he is merely a symbol. Control lies with the Islamic\nRevolutionary Guard Corps and competing factions within it, all\naggressive nationalists.<\/p>\n
And the war may have worsened the nuclear threat. The US and Israel\nhave further damaged Iran\u2019s infrastructure, but around 400 kg of highly\nenriched uranium, enough for ten bombs, is still buried at nuclear\nsites.<\/p>\n
Trump insists that Iran hand over this \u201cnuclear dust.\u201d Iran wants\nsanctions lifted, but the incentive to prevent future attacks by using\nit to make bombs has increased, potentially causing regional nuclear\nproliferation. That would be a horrific outcome, but to stop it, Trump\nand future presidents may have to attack every few years. Based on the\nevidence from this war, that will be hard to sustain.<\/p>\n
So what is the fate of the architects of this conflict? Israel has\nnever had such great military power. However, this war shows the limits\nof what can be achieved and how their appetite for preemptive strikes\ncauses fear and hatred in the region.<\/p>\n
For many Israelis, fighting as equals with America revives pride.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/iran-war-proves-trumps-failure-america-grows-weaker-1775911848", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }