{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1632741,
        "msgid": "iran-us-war-impacts-energy-crisis-what-needs-to-be-anticipated-1774356679",
        "date": "2026-03-24 19:05:00",
        "title": "Iran-US War Impacts Energy Crisis: What Needs to Be Anticipated",
        "author": "Indriyani Astuti",
        "source": "MEDIA_INDONESIA",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Energy",
        "summary": "The escalating conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is triggering a global energy crisis, with Indonesia particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imported and subsidised energy. Economist Yusuf Rendy Manilet warns that surging oil and gas prices could inflate fiscal pressures, widening the budget deficit beyond 3% of GDP unless managed through energy conservation and budget reallocations. He advocates reallocating funds from large-scale programmes like village cooperatives to cover rising subsidies, combining demand-side savings with fiscal prioritisation to avert economic slowdown.",
        "content": "<p>The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel is impacting the\nglobal energy crisis, including in Indonesia. However, the energy crisis\ndoes not always manifest as a shortage of fuel oil (BBM). According to\neconomist from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Yusuf Rendy\nManilet, the crisis can lead to a surge in prices.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen conflict drives a spike in global oil and gas prices, direct\npressure emerges on the fiscal side because our energy structure is\nstill heavily dependent on imports and subsidies,\u201d said Yusuf when\ncontacted on Tuesday (24\/3).<\/p>\n<p>In this context, he stated, the biggest risk lies in the state budget\n(APBN). Yusuf explained that rising energy prices will automatically\nincrease the burden of energy subsidies and compensation, while our\nfiscal space is limited.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf not managed carefully, the deficit could widen again, even\nbreaching the psychological threshold of 3% of GDP. This makes the\nenergy issue not just a sectoral concern, but a serious macro-fiscal\nrisk,\u201d he elaborated.<\/p>\n<p>However, on the other hand, policy responses cannot rely solely on\nincreasing subsidies. Yusuf believes that energy conservation must be\npromoted, through efficiency in the transportation, industrial, and\nhousehold sectors.<\/p>\n<p>Policies such as restricting certain BBM consumption, limited\npromotion of work from home, or accelerating the adoption of public\ntransportation could be part of the solution. \u201cBut we must also be\nrealistic that the impact of these savings tends to be gradual, while\nfiscal pressure occurs quickly,\u201d said Yusuf.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTherefore, the key to policy lies in budget reallocation. The\ngovernment needs to boldly re-evaluate programmes with large allocations\nbut relatively limited short-term economic impact,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, Yusuf said, programmes like MBG and village\ncooperatives, with total allocations approaching Rp400 trillion, are\nrelevant for review. Some of that budget could be redirected to cover\nthe swelling energy subsidies so as not to burden the deficit\nentirely.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn other words, a more rational strategy is a combination of energy\nsavings on the demand side and rearranging national spending priorities\non the fiscal side. Without corrective steps on both fronts, the\ngovernment risks being trapped in more expensive choices: allowing the\ndeficit to widen or making sudden spending cuts amid an economic\nslowdown,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/iran-us-war-impacts-energy-crisis-what-needs-to-be-anticipated-1774356679",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}